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basant
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   Posted: 29/Oct/2006 at 11:50am |
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That looks good to me. Seems spread out and also concentrated.
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vishal.sahay
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Posted: 30/Oct/2006 at 5:14pm |
But sir u didnt answered my question,I would be highly obliged if you could do so in some free time. And also if you could answer that u suggested my folio seems to be spread put but concentrated but if u are saying it looks concentrated then i would like clarify I am holding few other stocks also
Rel Energy 50 at Zero Price
RCVL 100 at Zero Price
there are few other, so now what will be your suggestion. thanks in advance for giving ur valuable time and concern 
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Vishal
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basant
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Posted: 30/Oct/2006 at 5:22pm |
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Just one thing please do not write the quantity and value. Only put in the percentage holding since that is enough to comment. Writing qty and value exposes personal information which might not be good. So you may put up a full list so that we can analyse and comment on that.
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basant
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Posted: 03/Nov/2006 at 12:57pm |
Originally posted by omshivaya
Fact is market can crash anytime! I look one year ahead EPS always and delete 10 points off the current PE of the stock(Trailing Twelve Months) and see whether my investment at current price would give a good return 1 year hence. If I see a more than 40% return, then I get into it and dont look at the downside. I simply persuade myself by saying "market can crash anytime" so lets get in.
That is the best I can do, though it MAY NOT be the best way of doing it MAYBE! |
Absolutely, you just threw some pearls of wisdom.Very well explained.
Edited by basant - 03/Nov/2006 at 12:58pm
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omshivaya
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Posted: 03/Nov/2006 at 1:19pm |
Okay, I think I should add something here. In some cases, I have violated my above law. But for such cases, one has to really do his homework well and then get into the stock. 2 cases I have violated my rule: educomp and pantaloon. So, read all that you can on this stock from forums, internet discussions, gurus, newspapers, news sources everywhere and then get into it.
BUT THESE CASES ARE RARE! I still rue the fact that I didnt understand the Educomp model soon enough else I would have been in at around 400 or 500 maybe. But whats done is done.
I dont know if it helps or not investor ji, but my entry point on educomp is 640 and on pantaloon is 1860. These have not been touched for last two weeks though it has come really close. But I am still trying. 640 and 1860 is not based on the EPS and PE calculations but is based on simple gut feeling and no reason for it. Even if it goes below from there no hassles.
Pantaloon FY08 EPS(E): 100 X 30(PE)=3000
CMP: 1900
Return: 57%
Educomp FY08 EPS(E): 30.81 X 30(PE)=924.3
CMP: 650
Return:42%
TV18: FY08 EPS(E): 40(take an assumption) X 30(PE)=1200
CMP: 790
Return: 51%
Pantaloon looks best to me from all 3 from 1 year-ahead perspective.
Hope all this helps.
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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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investor
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Posted: 03/Nov/2006 at 1:31pm |
Thanks omshivaya, Your approach is indeed very interesting.
Originally posted by omshivaya
Fact is market can crash anytime! I look one year ahead EPS always and delete 10 points off the current PE of the stock(Trailing Twelve Months) and see whether my investment at current price would give a good return 1 year hence. If I see a more than 40% return, then I get into it and dont look at the downside. I simply persuade myself by saying "market can crash anytime" so lets get in.
If the PE is too high...like above 40, then I simply take the PE as 30 for 1-year forward earnings.
That is the best I can do, though it MAY NOT be the best way of doing it MAYBE! |
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investor
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Posted: 03/Nov/2006 at 1:34pm |
I agree completely with you. There are always exception cases where you have to go by gut feel, and i have also entered a few stocks like that over last 2-3 years, coz not everytime all the parameters of your investment criteria will be met, and just because of that, we cannot afford to ignore a stock. No wonder they say investing is an art form, not an exact science! 
Originally posted by omshivaya
Okay, I think I should add something here. In some cases, I have violated my above law. But for such cases, one has to really do his homework well and then get into the stock. 2 cases I have violated my rule: educomp and pantaloon. So, read all that you can on this stock from forums, internet discussions, gurus, newspapers, news sources everywhere and then get into it.
BUT THESE CASES ARE RARE! I still rue the fact that I didnt understand the Educomp model soon enough else I would have been in at around 400 or 500 maybe. But whats done is done.
I dont know if it helps or not investor ji, but my entry point on educomp is 640 and on pantaloon is 1860. These have not been touched for last two weeks though it has come really close. But I am still trying. 640 and 1860 is not based on the EPS and PE calculations but is based on simple gut feeling and no reason for it. Even if it goes below from there no hassles.
Pantaloon FY08 EPS(E): 100 X 30(PE)=3000
CMP: 1900
Return: 57%
Educomp FY08 EPS(E): 30.81 X 30(PE)=924.3
CMP: 650
Return:42%
TV18: FY08 EPS(E): 40(take an assumption) X 30(PE)=1200
CMP: 790
Return: 51%
Pantaloon looks best to me from all 3 from 1 year-ahead perspective.
Hope all this helps. |
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harshbhandari
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Posted: 03/Nov/2006 at 11:15am |
Dear Omshivaya,
Have you done any similar analysis for Reliance Communication?
I somehow feel that CDMA technology is better to deliver cheaper telecom services in India. (especially when the real huge market is in interiors and rural India). People are becoming quite savvy in the use of tech.
RCL has been rolling out a lot Value Added Services (e-biz & e-comm).
As you mentioned gut feel, I have a similar hunch that Anil (ADA) will be hungry to ensure that his biggest co. is equally successful as RIL.
From a numbers perspective do let me know if RCL would warrant an investment from you.
Regards
P.S. - I am not sure if this is the right forum to bring this up.
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