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Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 10/Nov/2006 at 6:51pm

Buffet was asked during that lecture about fall of LTCM...this is a small portion of his response:

The downside, especially if you are managing other people’s money, is not only losing all your money, but it is disgrace, humiliation and facing friends whose money you have lost. Yet 16 guys with very high IQs entered into that game. I think it is madness. It is produced by an over reliance to some extent on things. Those guys would tell me back at Salomon; a six Sigma event wouldn’t touch us. But they were wrong. History does not tell you of future things happening. They had a great reliance on mathematics. They thought that the Beta of the stock told you something about the risk of the stock. It doesn’t tell you a damn thing about the risk of the stock in my view. Sigma’s do not tell you about the risk of going broke in my view and maybe now in their view too. But I don’t like to use them as an example. The same thing in a different way could happen to any of us, where we really have a blind spot about something that is crucial, because we know a whole lot of something else. It is like Henry Kauffman said, “The ones who are going broke in this situation are of two types, the ones who know nothing and the ones who know everything.” It is sad in a way.

 
 
Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 10/Nov/2006 at 10:19am
Buffet starts that lecture with a little sermon....This is a must read ....
 
I wish I had known about Buffet during my teens. It would have a lot of difference (not for the money part of it....as I already consider myself as financially independant...because I have defined my needs...which are pretty basic in nature..so I do not leverage...never ever borrowed money even to buy house. I sleep well every night)
----------------------------------------------
Buffet:

Think for a moment that I granted you the right--you can buy 10% of one of your classmate’s earnings for the rest of their lifetime. You can't pick someone with a rich father; you have to pick someone who is going to do it on his or her own merit. And I gave you an hour to think about it.

Will you give them an IQ test and pick the one with the highest IQ? I doubt it. Will you pick the one with the best grades? The most energetic? You will start looking for qualitative factors, in addition to (the quantitative) because everyone has enough brains and energy. You would probably pick the one you responded the best to, the one who has the leadership qualities, the one who is able to get other people to carry out their interests. That would be the person who is generous, honest and who gave credit to other people for their own ideas. All types of qualities. Whomever you admire the most in the class.

Then I would throw in a hooker. In addition to this person you had to go short one of your classmates. That is more fun. Who do I want to go short? You wouldn't pick the person with the lowest IQ, you would think about the person who turned you off, the person who is egotistical, who is greedy, who cuts corners, who is slightly dishonest.
As you look at those qualities on the left and right hand side, there is one interesting thing about them, it is not the ability to throw a football 60 yards, it is not the ability the run the 100 yard dash in 9.3 seconds, it is not being the best looking person in the class, they are all qualities that if you really want to have the ones on the left hand side, you can have them. They are qualities of behavior, temperament, character that are achievable, they are not forbidden to anybody in this group.
And if you look at the qualities on the right hand side the ones that turn you off in other people, there is not a quality there that you have to have. You can get rid of it. You can get rid of it a lot easier at your age than at my age, because most behaviors are habitual. The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken. There is no question about it. I see people with these self-destructive behavior patterns at my age or even twenty years younger and they really are entrapped by them. They go around and do things that turn off other people right and left. They don't need to be that way but by a certain point they get so they can hardly change it.
But at your age you can have any habits, any patterns of behavior that you wish. It is simply a question of which you decide.

If you did this… Ben Graham looked around at the people he admired and Ben Franklin did this before him. Ben Graham did this in his low teens and he looked around at the people he admired and he said, "I want to be admired, so why don't I behave like them?" And he found out that there was nothing impossible about behaving like them. Similarly he did the same thing on the reverse side in terms of getting rid of those qualities.

I would suggest is that if you write those qualities down and think about them a while and make them habitual, you will be the one you want to buy 10% of when you are all through. And the beauty of it is that you already own 100% of yourself and you are stuck with it. So you might as well be that person, that somebody else!
 
 


Edited by kulman - 10/Nov/2006 at 10:20am
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BubbleVision
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 10/Nov/2006 at 10:34am
Absolutely Brilliant Kulman....
Thanks a lot for having wonderful thoughts on this forum....
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 11/Nov/2006 at 8:34am
While replying to a question on LTCM, this is a part of what Buffet replied:
 

The whole LTCM is really fascinating because if you take Larry Hillenbrand, Eric Rosenfeld, John Meriwether and the two Nobel prize winners. If you take the 16 of them, they have about as high an IQ as any 16 people working together in one business in the country, including Microsoft. An incredible amount of intellect in one room. Now you combine that with the fact that those people had extensive experience in the field they were operating in.

These were not a bunch of guys who had made their money selling men’s clothing and all of a sudden went into the securities business. They had in aggregate, the 16, had 300 or 400 years of experience doing exactly what they were doing and then you throw in the third factor that most of them had most of their very substantial net worth’s in the businesses. Hundreds and hundreds of millions of their own money up (at risk), super high intellect and working in a field that they knew. Essentially they went broke. That to me is absolutely fascinating.

If I ever write a book it will be called, Why Smart People Do Dumb Things. My partner says it should be autobiographical. But this might be an interesting illustration. They are perfectly decent guys. I respect them and they helped me out when I had problems at Salomon. They are not bad people at all.

But to make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and what they did need. That is just plain foolish; it doesn’t matter what your IQ is. If you risk something that is important to you for something that is unimportant to you it just doesn’t make sense. I don’t care if the odds you succeed are 99 to 1 or 1000 to 1 that you succeed. If you hand me a gun with a million chambers with one bullet in a chamber and put it up to your temple and I am paid to pull the trigger, it doesn’t matter how much I would be paid. I would not pull the trigger. You can name any sum you want, but it doesn’t do anything for me on the upside and I think the downside is fairly clear. Yet people do it financially very much without thinking.

 
 
 
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 11/Nov/2006 at 9:20am
But to make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and what they did need. That is just plain foolish.If you risk something that is important to you for something that is unimportant to you it just doesn’t make sense
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 12/Nov/2006 at 11:45am
And Buffet also mentions these golden words to end his lecture:
 

Then the way to do it is to play out the game and do something you enjoy all your life and be associated with people you like. I only work with people I like. If I could make $100 million dollars with a guy who causes my stomach to churn, I would say no because in way that is very much like marrying for money which is probably not a very good idea in any circumstances, but if you are already rich, it is crazy. I am not going to marry for money.

 

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Quote monu_duggad Replybullet Posted: 13/Nov/2006 at 1:31pm
It was awesome..thanks a lot kulman bhai...i read the pdf article last night..and it was so enchanting...i put the tv set on mute .....i always multitask...read+tv...eat+tv etc etc...but when i was reading the article on buffet...was so entrenched...i forgot i was watching Sholay :)
 
 
Please do post more such articles...be it on buffet or anyone worth reading !!
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 13/Nov/2006 at 8:37am
You are right Monujee...that's why Buffet's thoughts are termed as 'sermon' or 'discourse'. Here is another simple but very important lesson he mentions during that lecture:
 

Everybody has got a different circle of competence. The important thing is not how big the circle is, the important thing is the size of the circle; the important thing is staying inside the circle.

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