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Identifying Multibaggers
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Identifying Multibaggers
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 14/Jan/2009 at 9:20am
Originally posted by kanagala

Originally posted by basant

The most difficult words in investing are "patience",  "long term" and "conviction".
 
But I have learnt (the hard way) that amongst these there is yet important term which is to book losses if a) the story deteriorates or b) There is a better alternative arouund.
 
 


I guess this is my biggest mistake. I couldn't able to move to better alternatives quickly. I am not able to see a) and b) quickly enough before market does.
 
For you to move to better alternatives requires you to keep yourself open-minded. There has to be a tendency to experience to do newer things, to do similar things in a newer manner.
 
I just saw your sector/stock picks for 2009. It seems that you prepared that list out of hope more than anything else.
 
You may consider me as being outrightly harsh, but then think more about the cause of being myopic to opportunities rather than cursing yourself to be narrow-minded.
Jai Guru!!!
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Quote investor Replybullet Posted: 14/Jan/2009 at 9:35am
I agree with Vivek about timing, people seem to forget every stock has an exit point as well. This is from my own experience.

This Buffet concept worked for him in a particular environment, but will
not be applicable to everyone in every market year after year. And even then it will probably only work for for a few serious disciplined investors like Basantji and Vivek, for the rest of us amateurs it is prudent to realize that we buy stocks to make money, so no point looking at a portfolio tracker and feeling happy over a 20% or 80% unrealized profit, till such time as you actually sell and get the cash(Another lesson learned the hard way by yours truly! Ouch)

Even today, i am sure that if Buffet starts from level zero, he will agree
that its not possible anymore to have a buy and hold policy for 20 years
and more. The world has changed, and so too has the markets.

And regarding your point about what you buy and not when you buy,
i have a colleague of mine who bought Infy at the peak of the dotcom boom in 2000 for Rs. 12000+ a share, and has been holding on it till date. Try telling him that it does not matter when you buy, as long as you hold on to it for 10 years or more! LOL
(He is a very good investor and has done well since then, he just holds on to Infy mainly to remind himself of his mistake, so that he be reminded of it)

Originally posted by somu0915

Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

The most essential thing in stock markets is timing. However hard we may shun it, but this is what distinguishes froma wonderful performer from an ordinary performer.
 


I disagree to this. Mr Buffet has been making money through decades through the bumpy ride of the market. Timing can be possible once or twice but cannot be done always.

Most important is patience. Patience to hold on and believe in your extincts. Patience to see some other company performing so well(which maybe outside your understaning) and still holding on to your business. Most important is discipline.

And greed is second factor which kills. The greed for more money convinces us to put money in lousy businesses.

Another most important factor is what you buy. No matter if you buy it a little expensive, if you can keep it for 10 years.. you will have an exponential profit. Even if someone bought a good business at the peak when sensex was 21000, and has the patience to keep it for 10 years, he will still be in good profits.

I think only few people on earth have that much patience.
The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience.
The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience!
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Quote somu0915 Replybullet Posted: 15/Jan/2009 at 12:14pm
Originally posted by jugs_pannu

Hi to all,

Sir I have a question to all..Everybody in this world gives examples of Mr warren Buffet, Peter Lynch etc..And we go ga ga over how they made so much money.

They can make a lot of money and would continue to make tons of money after all they have loads of people doing loads of research for them..so i think they would rarely go wrong..Secondly every company would give them honest facts..truthfull facts.. the inside information..whereas a small investor like me basis his opinion about a stock looking at a balance sheet(which most of them fudge) or from the newspaper, magazines, etc which mostly is what the management or a large broking house wants them to say... needless to say that the information is not entirely correct..so we buy on the hope that the company is as good as it is made out to be..

I think there is no fool proof system to judge a company.

would like to know the opinion of all about the same.

Thanks & Regards
jugs




I will just say that everybody is a small investor at some point of time.
Warren Buffet was also in this category once.
So what you say about small investors not able to judge management, warren buffet must also have gone through this.
Secondly what Basant Ji said above: Companies take every investor seriously. They generally provide any information that is needed. Peter Lynch says this in his book "One Up On The Wall Street" clearly..

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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 15/Jan/2009 at 12:36pm

Even in 2003 when my portfolio was around 6% of today's value I used to call up companies and they responded so I am sure companies respond provided we ask them questions relating to their business rather then talk about EPS and dividend and plain guidance.

They are really happy to know something about their business if investors can share it with them.
 
 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote aloksahi1971 Replybullet Posted: 15/Jan/2009 at 3:48pm
Basantji Mubarakh! even in these trying times your portfolio is up 94% in 5 years.Great!!!
Born To Golf forced to work.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 15/Jan/2009 at 4:05pm
wrong statisics, Alok Sahi saab......
 
Its up more than 16.67 times......!!!!!
Jai Guru!!!
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Quote aloksahi1971 Replybullet Posted: 15/Jan/2009 at 5:25pm
oops!!! Thats right Sir, What a performance .
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Quote HallaBol Replybullet Posted: 15/Jan/2009 at 5:44pm
Originally posted by arunshah2k

Yes, patience gets tested more during bear markets.In bull market, it seems all companies can grow their earnings and everything looks rosy and people buy more.In bear markets, same companies have slower earnings, and people now feel that company is going bankrupt, and people dont invest at all. This cycle continues.I guess the trick to making money is to buy companies in bear markets that are having difficulty in earnings and then these companies shower higher earnings growth in bull markets. Seems tough, but not impossible.


Completely agree... One idea for making big money is quality midcap IT companies. Currently they are finding it difficult to make money, valuations are very cheap. When the cycle turns, they will definitely start making money. Look out for big multibaggers in midcap IT space. my picks are Mindtree and 3i.

2nd idea is finantial sector. My picks are Yes bank and Kotak.

3rd is media, my picks are ENIL and NDTV. The outlook is looking bleak (is not that the right time to buy?) .. Whenever the cycle turns, valuations will definately soar ..

Here the picks are on the fact we are looking for multi baggers. We might not make any money in next 2 years, but whenever the cycle turns .. there is lot of money to be made ..

All these stock are having no visibility in near term, but they definitely are long race horses ..




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