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Identifying Multibaggers
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catchsudipto
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Quote catchsudipto Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 2:44pm
Dear Sir

Thanks for the insight. Thanks for telling u view why u are not comfortable with construction and software. 

For my favour i am listing the most favourite stocks in the following setors(Please  do correct me if i am wrong)
Retailing: Pantaloon retail
Media: Tv18
Retail banking: Hdfc
Private Insurance (no specific player as such now): Pantaloon again
Internet and education.: Educomp
and may be multiplex: PVR

Thanks  Sir


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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 2:46pm
Yes that is also a valid argument and we did see top Indian companies survive the the year 2000.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 3:11pm
 
Great work done Guess that should be should be HDFC bank Better to play Insurance through
 
Indian Rayon has telecom, Insurance(Birla Sunlife) assset management 
 
 
The multiplex business wil grow 5 times in 5 years.
 
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catchsudipto
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Quote catchsudipto Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 3:28pm
Dear Sir,

Yes Sir U are right . In retail banking it was Hdfc bank.

Sir u told that "Indian Rayon has telecom, Insurance(Birla Sunlife) assset management" . Then who is the owner of  Birla Sunlifr. Indian rayon or Adithya birla nuvo. Please  Throw some light on multiplex business.


Thanks Sir 
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 3:38pm
Ind Rayon was the old name AB Nuvo is just the change in name. Multiplex is not a 10 year story but over the next 5 years this sector should do very well. The revenues should grow from  Rs 6,136 crores to Rs 34,020 crores. The top 5 players shall contribute 1000 screens each.
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Quote Equity Buff Replybullet Posted: 08/Oct/2006 at 12:33pm
[QUOTE=basant]Generally companies that are below 10% of the total market size are best suited since competition does not affect their sales.
 
Basantjee,
 
1) Can you pls explain what you eactly mean by above statement ?
 
A) Do you mean market cap of company is below 10% of yearly sector sales in the sector the company operates ?
 
2)Today Indian retail sector (unorganised & organised) current annual sales is USD 300 billion.
 
A)What was this figure in 2003 ?
 
B) For scale of opportunity are you basically looking at Market cap eg of Pantaloon USD 1 billion and comparing this to annual retail sector sales of USD 300 Billion ?
 
c) Isnt the total retail sector annual sales increasing year on year (currently USD 300 Billion in a couple of years this could become eg 310 billion and so on) and also organised retail is taking a bigger share of this every year. So not only is the total retail sector sales increasing but organised retail market share is also increasing year on year ?
 
Await your replies to 1) A) and 2) A), B) C).
 
Thanks.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 08/Oct/2006 at 1:07pm
Equity Buff : You put me to some real online examination at times. On a serious note you have listed the points well. Answers are in bold.
 
 A) Do you mean market cap of company is below 10% of yearly sector sales in the sector the company operates ? YES,
 
2)Today Indian retail sector (unorganised & organised) current annual sales is USD 300 billion. tRUE AND IF PANTALOON DOES ASALE OF RS 4000 CRORE THIS YEAR AND RELIANCE DOES 10 TIMES THAT IT DOES NOT MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
 
A)What was this figure in 2003 ? THE TOTAL FIGURE WAS SLIGHTLY MORE THEN US $ 250 BILLION
 
B) For scale of opportunity are you basically looking at Market cap eg of Pantaloon USD 1 billion and comparing this to annual retail sector sales of USD 300 Billion ?ABSOLUTELY. LOOK AT TITAN JEWELLERYSALE OF RS 2000 CRORES AND SIZE OF MARKET OPPORTUNITY IS RS 40,000 CRORES.SO TITAN EXCEPT FOR NEAR TERM VALUATIONS IS A GREAT PLAY I WOULD THINK.
 
c) Isnt the total retail sector annual sales increasing year on year (currently USD 300 Billion in a couple of years this could become eg 310 billion and so on) and also organised retail is taking a bigger share of this every year. So not only is the total retail sector sales increasing but organised retail market share is also increasing year on year ?YES INCREASING BUT THE DIFFERENCE TOTAL-ORGANIZED0 IS STILL SIGNIFICANT)
 
Await your replies to 1) A) and 2) A), B) C).
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Quote Equity Buff Replybullet Posted: 08/Oct/2006 at 7:06pm
For scale of opportunity are you basically looking at Market cap eg of Pantaloon USD 1 billion and comparing this to annual retail sector sales of USD 300 Billion ?ABSOLUTELY. LOOK AT TITAN JEWELLERYSALE OF RS 2000 CRORES AND SIZE OF MARKET OPPORTUNITY IS RS 40,000 CRORES.SO TITAN EXCEPT FOR NEAR TERM VALUATIONS IS A GREAT PLAY I WOULD THINK. [/QUOTE] .
 
Basantjee,
 
Above you have mentioned Titan Jewellery sales of Rs. 2000 crores and market opportunity (Jewellery sector annual sales) Rs. 40000 crs.
 
As you normally compare Company Market cap to Market opportunity (to determine scale of opportunity for a company), of hand would you know the market cap of Titan ? to compare it to market opportunity of Rs. 40000 crs.
 
Also when one compares a company's Market cap to Market opportunity (annual sales of that sector) this is done not only to get an idea of the opportunity but also because growth stocks normally quote at some multiple of market cap/sales of the company, thus currently if a company may trade eg 7 times market cap/sales, on the face of it may look expensive but actually it could be a great buy bacause given the Market opportunity and with company sales increasing year on year so will the market cap of the company and thus the stock price.
 
TRUE AND IF PANTALOON DOES A SALE OF RS 4000 CRORE THIS YEAR AND RELIANCE DOES 10 TIMES THAT IT DOES NOT MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
 
Above statement, it is because the scale of opportunity is so large that many players will not only survive but also make good money.
 
Your views ?
 
Rgds.
 
 


Edited by Equity Buff - 08/Oct/2006 at 8:41am
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