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Lifestyle and environment - One thing constant is change
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BubbleVision
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2007 at 10:00am

Polar ice cap gone by 2030?


July's huge drop in Arctic sea ice extent continued into August 2007, according to figures released this week by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. August 2007 sea ice extent plunged 31% compared to the average from 1979-2000. As of September 4, 2007, the sea ice extent was a full 17% below the record minimum that occurred on September 20-21, 2005. Although the rate of melting is starting to slow down as the days grow shorter, more melting is expected this month.

The difference in sea ice extent between August 1979 (the beginning of the data record) and August 2007 was a startling 37%. University of Illinois Polar Research Group presented similar estimates this week. They measure sea ice area--not extent. Sea ice area does not include all the long, narrow cracks in the ice, and so the numbers for sea ice area are different (lower) than for sea ice extent. Their sea ice area estimate for September 5, 2007 (Figure 1) was 42% less than for the same date 28 years ago.

An ice-free Arctic in just 23 years?


None of our computer climate models predicted that such a huge loss in Arctic ice would occur so soon. Up until this year, the prevailing view among climate scientists was that an ice-free Arctic ocean would occur in the 2070-2100 time frame. The official word on climate change, the February 2007 report from the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warned that without drastic changes in greenhouse gas emissions, Arctic sea ice will "almost entirely" disappear by the end of the century. This projection is now being radically revised. Earlier this year, I blogged about a new study that predicted abrupt losses of Arctic sea ice were possible as early as 2015, and that we could see an ice-free Arctic Ocean as early as 2040. Well, the Arctic Ocean has suffered one of the abrupt losses this study warned about--eight years earlier than this most radical study suggested. It is highly probable that a complete loss of summer Arctic sea ice will occur far earlier than any scientist or computer model predicted. In an interview published yesterday in The Guardian Dr. Mark Serreze, and Arctic ice expert with the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said: "If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate. It seems that the Arctic is going to be a very different place within our lifetimes, and certainly within our children's lifetimes." While natural fluctuations in wind and ocean circulation are partly to blame for this loss of sea ice, human-caused global warming is primarily to blame. In the words of Dr. Serreze: "The rules are starting to change and what's changing the rules is the input of greenhouse gases. This year puts the exclamation mark on a series of record lows that tell us something is happening."

The implications:

The melting of the Arctic sea ice will not raise ocean levels appreciably, since the ice is made up of frozen sea water that is floating in the ocean. Sea ice melt does contribute slightly to sea level rise, since the fresh melt water is less dense than the salty ocean water it displaces. According to Robert Grumbine's sea level FAQ, if all the world's sea ice melted, it would contribute to about 4 millimeters of global sea level rise. This is a tiny figure compared to the 20 feet of sea level rise locked up in the ice of the Greenland ice sheet, which is on land.

The biggest concern about Arctic sea ice loss is the warmer average temperatures it will bring to the Arctic in coming years. Instead of white, reflective ice, we will now have dark, sunlight-absorbing water at the pole, leading to a large increase in average temperature. Warmer temperatures will accelerate the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which holds enough water to raise sea level 20 feet. The official word on climate, the 2007 IPCC report, predicted only a 0.6-1.9 foot sea level rise by 2100, due to melting of the Greenland ice sheet and other factors. I believe these estimates will need to be revised sharply upwards in light of the unexpectedly high Arctic sea ice loss this summer.

One more point--global warming skeptics often criticize using computer model climate predictions as a basis for policy decisions. These models are too uncertain, they say. Well, the uncertainty goes both way--sometimes the models will underestimate climate change. We should have learned this lesson when the ozone hole opened up--another case where the models failed to predict a major climate change. The atmosphere is not the well-behaved, predictable entity the models try to approximate it as. The atmosphere is wild, chaotic, incredibly complex, and prone to sudden unexpected shifts. By pumping large amounts of greenhouse gases into the air, we have destabilized the climate and pushed the atmosphere into a new state it has never been in before. We can expect many more surprises that the models will not predict. Some of these may be pleasant surprises, but I am expecting mostly nasty surprises.

 
 
 
 
 
 
This is copy paste from somewhere…..BV
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BubbleVision
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 23/Dec/2007 at 6:39pm

Global warming is a term which most of us have heard and assume that this generally means that “Temperatures would rise across the board”. However, nothing could be further from truth, as “global-warming” generally applies “increasing disparity between temperatures within continents”. Europe could turn colder and Asia could turn warmer or vice versa. Infact, temperatures in UK could dip by 10 degrees.......

 
This is a fantastic report which discusses this issue, and contains huge wealth of information and number of historical charts on how temperature have behaved in the past, and how they are expected to behave in the future. I strongly think that every TEDdy would benefit from reading the report!  

 

Why read this report?

 

It is because it also contains information as to what could be the implications of chances in global temperature and how one could gain, by being appropriately positioned.

 

Ever wondered why is currently there a disparity between UK and Alaska temperature, even though both lay on the same latitude. If yes, then read the report.

 

 

Report at: www.fullermoney.com/content/2007-08-14/climate.pdf

 

 

You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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Quote manishdave Replybullet Posted: 23/Dec/2007 at 5:45am
Very extensive report. Now understand Eric Sprott's background.
 
Eric Sprott is uranium bull since atleast three-four years. He is bullish on energy/energy related metals(Moly and Nickel). He is also a gold bug. There is difference betn gold bulls and gold bugs. Eric Sprott doesn't like other metals much.
 
Gold bugs are ultimate pessimists. They don't trust ANY paper assets. They don't like metals other than gold/silver. They to suggest keep all money in gold, at your home(safe deposit vaults are not safe) and keep loaded gun to protect it.
 
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BubbleVision
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 21/Jan/2008 at 7:42am

Volcano contributes to Warming in Antarctica.

A rare volcanic eruption punched through Antarctica's ice sheet more than 2,000 years ago, scattering ash across the frozen landscape, a radar survey has revealed.

The eruption was the biggest in Antarctica in the past 10,000 years, researchers estimate.

The volcano's continuous output of heat may still be melting the base of the ice sheet, and could be partially responsible for the fast flow of a nearby glacier.

David Vaughan and Hugh Corr of the British Antarctic Survey, based in Cambridge, England, spotted signs of the eruption using ice-penetrating radar, which revealed a layer of volcanic rock embedded within the ice sheet.

"There would have been a very big bang as the plume of ash and steam broke through the ice," Vaughan said. "Then ash would have begun to rain down on to the ice surface."

As snow fell over the centuries, this ash layer got buried, and is now embedded in the middle of the ice sheet.

Other studies have found indirect evidence of volcanoes under Antarctica, and researchers have tracked volcanoes erupting under the ice in Iceland.

But the new study is the first to show direct evidence of a relatively recent eruption from under the Antarctic ice sheet—one that could still be affecting the ice sheet today.

The study appeared January 20 in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Volcano Impacts

The distinct layer of ash within the ice was "stunning," Vaughan said: The scientists had never seen anything like it.

The layer is buried in the middle of the ice sheet that covers the volcano, roughly 1,000 feet (300 meters) deep under the ice's surface.

This depth, along with thin acid layers that showed up in ice cores from distant parts of western Antarctica, suggest that the volcano erupted around 300 B.C.

Heat from the volcano likely melted a large amount of ice around it, and this meltwater probably ran under the base of the ice sheet and out to sea, the researchers say.

The volcano could continue to melt ice around it, and the meltwater could lubricate the base of the ice sheet, speeding up the movement of the nearby Pine Island Glacier, helping make it today one of Antarctica's fastest-flowing glaciers.

"The presence of the volcano adds [to] the complexity of an issue that I thought we were getting on top of," Vaughan said.

Western Antarctica "is losing ice to the oceans, and the volcano could be contributing to that effect."

But it can only be responsible for a fraction of that change, he added, since the volcano only affects the nearby Pine Island Glacier.

Global warming is still the main culprit behind the overall loss of ice from western Antarctica, researchers say.

Subglacial Hot Plate

Magnús Guðmundsson, of the University of Iceland in Reykjavik, says the new study is "quite convincing."

In Iceland frequent volcanoes under glaciers haven't disrupted the ice too much. But it may be different for large ice sheets such as those in Antarctica, said Guðmundsson, who was not involved in the study.

"By finding the site of a recent Antarctic eruption, it may be possible to study if and how this eruption affected the ice flow," he added.

Robin Bell, of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York, was also not involved in the new research.

"We have not really thought through the implication of a hot plate that turns off and on beneath the ice sheet," Bell said.

But she believes it could have effects on the ice sheet that researchers need to take into account."What is remarkable now," Bell added, "is that it is becoming more broadly accepted that what is under the ice sheet does matter."

 

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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 30/Jan/2008 at 12:55pm

While UN and EU folks are beating chest about the global warming, China is having the coldest winter for the last 50 years..Where is the global warming coming from ?..More like a new Ice-Age is upon us :)

 

Our own saddi Delhi is likely to freeze on 01-Feb, if BBC predictions go correct, and that would be the lowest in 70 years!!!

 

Mumbai is also near 10 degree now. Wow that's cold!!!
 
 
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 26/Mar/2008 at 1:42pm

Big Chunk Of Antarctic Ice Shelf Falling Apart

 

WASHINGTON (AFP) -- A section of Antarctica's massive Wilkins Ice Shelf has begun disintegrating under the effects of global warming, satellite images by the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center showed.

 

The collapse of a substantial section of the ice shelf was triggered on February 28 when an iceberg measuring 41 by 2.4 kilometers broke off its southwestern front. That movement led to disintegration of the shelf's interior, of which 414 square kilometers has already disappeared.

 

As a result, a large part of the 12,950 square kilometer (5,000 square mile) Wilkins Ice Shelf - Antarctica's largest - is now supported by a 5.6-kilometer (3.5 mile) strip of ice between two islands, NSIDC lead scientist Ted Scambos said in a statement. "If there is a little bit more retreat, this last 'ice buttress' could collapse and we'd likely lose about half the total ice shelf area in the next few years," he said.

 

Over the past half century, the western Antarctic Peninsula has experienced the biggest temperature increase on Earth, 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 Fahrenheit) per decade. "We believe the Wilkins has been in place for at least a few hundred years, but warm air and exposure to ocean waves are causing a breakup," said Scambos, who first spotted the disintegration in March.

 

With the Antarctic summer drawing to a close, scientist doesn’t expect the ice shelf to further disintegrate in the next several months. "This unusual show is over for this season," said Scambos. "But come January, we'll be watching to see if the Wilkins continues to fall apart."

 

Ice shelf breakup in the Antarctic - more than 13,000 square kilometers (5,000 square miles) have been lost over the past 50 years – could significantly increase ocean levels around the world. According to some calculations based on present sea level rise of three millimeters per year (0.11 inches), ocean levels could rise by 1.4 meters (4.6 feet) by the end of the century.
 
 
 
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 26/Mar/2008 at 10:31pm
Originally posted by BubbleVision

Big Chunk Of Antarctic Ice Shelf Falling Apart

 

WASHINGTON (AFP) -- A section of Antarctica's massive Wilkins Ice Shelf has begun disintegrating under the effects of global warming, satellite images by the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center showed.

 

The collapse of a substantial section of the ice shelf was triggered on February 28 when an iceberg measuring 41 by 2.4 kilometers broke off its southwestern front. That movement led to disintegration of the shelf's interior, of which 414 square kilometers has already disappeared.

 

As a result, a large part of the 12,950 square kilometer (5,000 square mile) Wilkins Ice Shelf - Antarctica's largest - is now supported by a 5.6-kilometer (3.5 mile) strip of ice between two islands, NSIDC lead scientist Ted Scambos said in a statement. "If there is a little bit more retreat, this last 'ice buttress' could collapse and we'd likely lose about half the total ice shelf area in the next few years," he said.

 

Over the past half century, the western Antarctic Peninsula has experienced the biggest temperature increase on Earth, 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 Fahrenheit) per decade. "We believe the Wilkins has been in place for at least a few hundred years, but warm air and exposure to ocean waves are causing a breakup," said Scambos, who first spotted the disintegration in March.

 

With the Antarctic summer drawing to a close, scientist doesn’t expect the ice shelf to further disintegrate in the next several months. "This unusual show is over for this season," said Scambos. "But come January, we'll be watching to see if the Wilkins continues to fall apart."

 

Ice shelf breakup in the Antarctic - more than 13,000 square kilometers (5,000 square miles) have been lost over the past 50 years – could significantly increase ocean levels around the world. According to some calculations based on present sea level rise of three millimeters per year (0.11 inches), ocean levels could rise by 1.4 meters (4.6 feet) by the end of the century.
 
 
 
Fwiw....
 
Picture of Wilkins Ice sheet which is about to break....Showing Ice melting!!!
 
Ice%20shelf%20collapse%20in%20Antarctica%20pictures
 
 
Anyone here interested in Global Warming and Geography and Mother nature?
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Janak.merchant1
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Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 26/Mar/2008 at 11:10pm
Originally posted by BubbleVision

[QUOTE=BubbleVision]

Big Chunk Of Antarctic Ice Shelf Falling Apart

 
Anyone here interested in Global Warming and Geography and Mother nature?
  
 
Yes I am interested.  Bubble. Do u have any parti insights that we shud know? For our investment decisions?
 
Best wishes,
 
JM
I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
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