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Identifying Multibaggers
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Identifying Multibaggers
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arunshah2k
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Quote arunshah2k Replybullet Posted: 14/Jan/2009 at 3:30pm
Yes, patience gets tested more during bear markets.

In bull market, it seems all companies can grow their earnings and everything looks rosy and people buy more.

In bear markets, same companies have slower earnings, and people now feel that company is going bankrupt, and people dont invest at all.

This cycle continues.

I guess the trick to making money is to buy companies in bear markets that are having difficulty in earnings and then these companies shower higher earnings growth in bull markets. Seems tough, but not impossible.
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praveen
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Quote praveen Replybullet Posted: 14/Jan/2009 at 3:44pm
Originally posted by somu0915



Another most important factor is what you buy. No matter if you buy it a little expensive, if you can keep it for 10 years.. you will have an exponential profit. Even if someone bought a good business at the peak when sensex was 21000, and has the patience to keep it for 10 years, he will still be in good profits.

I think only few people on earth have that much patience.
 
I don't agree, ask peoplewho bought cisco, Intel in the US in 2000 or go ask the Japs who bought in the late 1980's
 
Bottom line is valuation matters, and remember Graham's margin of safety principle.
 
A lot of the companies were more than little expensive when sensex@ 21K so I wouldn't be surprised if some of the scrips don't reach the Jan highs even in the year 2018.
 
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somu0915
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Quote somu0915 Replybullet Posted: 14/Jan/2009 at 3:55pm
"Time is the enemy of lousy business" - Warren Buffet.
So if we are holding for a longer time, we must be sure that the company holds the test of time.
I preferably don't have interests in Technology Companies because you never know what technology might perform the current one. Also the MOAT should be broader in Buffet's words.
Simple businesses with broad MOAT should do well in time even if they are bought at high's of any bull market and even if the market falls exponentially, they will eventually do good in the longer run.
But again one must have the patience.
No doubt margin of safety is very very very important but with extraordinary business you can give a little discount with this.
Thats my personal opinion.
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 14/Jan/2009 at 4:33pm
The most difficult words in investing are "patience",  "long term" and "conviction".
 
But I have learnt (the hard way) that amongst these there is yet important term which is to book losses if a) the story deteriorates or b) There is a better alternative arouund.
 
 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Subhankar
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Quote Subhankar Replybullet Posted: 14/Jan/2009 at 7:33pm
My two cents worth, Basant.

Booking losses becomes easier if you are disciplined about setting realistic stop-losses. Though mainly used by traders, I have used it in long-term investing as well by using a larger percentage (25-30%).

The other discipline is to keep raising the stop-losses by the same percentage as the stock price rise. Easier said than done, though!

Another trick - which caps the gains but considerably reduces the downside - is to book profits partially. Of course, such strategies work best during bull markets.
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kanagala
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Quote kanagala Replybullet Posted: 14/Jan/2009 at 10:55pm
Originally posted by basant

The most difficult words in investing are "patience",  "long term" and "conviction".
 
But I have learnt (the hard way) that amongst these there is yet important term which is to book losses if a) the story deteriorates or b) There is a better alternative arouund.
 
 


I guess this is my biggest mistake. I couldn't able to move to better alternatives quickly. I am not able to see a) and b) quickly enough before market does.
While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior.
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jugs_pannu
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Quote jugs_pannu Replybullet Posted: 14/Jan/2009 at 11:08pm
Hi to all,

Sir I have a question to all..Everybody in this world gives examples of Mr warren Buffet, Peter Lynch etc..And we go ga ga over how they made so much money.

They can make a lot of money and would continue to make tons of money after all they have loads of people doing loads of research for them..so i think they would rarely go wrong..Secondly every company would give them honest facts..truthfull facts.. the inside information..whereas a small investor like me basis his opinion about a stock looking at a balance sheet(which most of them fudge) or from the newspaper, magazines, etc which mostly is what the management or a large broking house wants them to say... needless to say that the information is not entirely correct..so we buy on the hope that the company is as good as it is made out to be..

I think there is no fool proof system to judge a company.

would like to know the opinion of all about the same.

Thanks & Regards
jugs


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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 14/Jan/2009 at 8:40am
Peter Lunch made a 100 bagger or moire in feddie and Fannie and then blew it al over so he was also not immune to the market risk. COmpanies talk as seriously to small investors as they do to big ones provided the questions are serious.
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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