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 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Fundamental
Message Icon Topic: Delisted by Promotors - Boon or Curse Post Reply Post New Topic
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 03/Sep/2007 at 10:13am
Originally posted by basant

Absolutely relevant. But before we make a blanket conclusion that stocks rise post the open offers (which they normally do) we should see that the time line in the above thesis is within a full blown bull market so to that extent the monry would have grown had the investor taken his money and put it in some other stock.
 
 
 
Basant Sir, most of the investors are not as intelligent as you are in being able to locate how long will a bull market last and which of the stocks will outperform etc etc. A company going for a buyback doesnt fll in the eventuality of a stock market crash/correction. so, everytime a normal not-so-intelligent investor must go for buyback kinda stocks just for an accasional outperformance and for safety. Hindalco has done much better than Sesa in the last 1 year, but compare the stock market prices of the 2 companies. auto ancilliaries have got tossed and forgotten but what about MICO. Where has Monsanto gone in last 2 years, but look at syngenta....All i am saying is that one doesnt know future with any certainty and so as much we can ascertain our returns within the overall realm( meaning, FD is not an option), we should get into them. I recently made an entry into ballarpur because of its buy-back offer. I worked out that for a small shaereholder, the buy-back price is coming out to be 140 rupees per share pre-split in case he decides to offload all his shares in the buyback so it became a crying buy at 124 when the offer was announced and i was so surprised that even after the day I managed to get it 124 odd....most probably all analysts would have been sleeping then, I beleive. Now 140 is assured for a small shareholder, so there is no issue in whether the shares will be accepted in the offer. Important term here is small. Now, for Ambuja Cements, I have done my calculations as follows. Holcim already holds nearly 30 p.c. so, assuming all free float is offered for buyback , 2/7 of them will at least be accepted( as 20 p.c. is being offered for buy-back and 70 p.c. will be what will be offered). Now, suppose if someone buys 70 tickets at 135, his 20 tickets at least will be accepted for buy-back. So, for the balance 50 tickets his costing works out to be ((70*135)-(20*154))/50 which is roughly 127....now one should take a call based on this worst case scenario. If you are comfortable keeping an Ambuja for 127, one should get into Ambuja else you can ignore that. When the company goes for delisting. the intention becomes more of desperation so the investors/traders play on that des[peration and make a very fast buck.....
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