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Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
 The Equity Desk Forum :Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios! :Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
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Monkey
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Quote Monkey Replybullet Posted: 17/Aug/2013 at 11:56pm
Originally posted by FutureBull

IMHO, buying gold can never be called criminal. This is the only way to protect yourself against general stupidity by govt. and central banks. If Indians are buying gold by truckload, there is something wrong with the currency. Nobody asks RBI why are they printing 3% of currency by way OMO every year. If that doesn't amount to playing with currency, what else would be. We keep a keen eye on what FED does in US but skip the sins committed by RBI which is printing and help finance horrible policies followed by UPA. This creates inflation and any sane person trying to protect himself should buy some gold. The figure of 3 lac+ Cr. for gold imports is highly manipulated figure. I came to know that gold is the best way to launder money and whenever any country faces crisis of confidence this is the most preferred way for money to flow out. Look at China where similar story is playing out but they have reserves to fight it but we don't and hence depreciation. UPA knows raising tax on gold imports to 30-40% would hurt their friends and families only.


I agree.

Consider this.....Since Independence, rupee has been steadily depreciating against USD whereas USD itself has depreciated greatly against Gold (from USD 35/- to USD 1350/- for one ounce in same time frame).

Indians can not open foreign currency deposit in local banks and remitting and investing money abroad is way too complicated for ordinary Indian. So, in absence of freedom on capital account, the most simple way to protect against this sort of currency depreciation and resultant loss of purchasing power is to buy Gold.

If RBI and Government impose quantitative restrictions, that will encourage smuggling but Gold demand will not go down.

I think it is high time our economy managers at RBI and Finance ministry understand the real reasons behind attraction of Gold for ordinary Indians and start addressing the real issues. Then and then only, Gold import will see legitimate decline.

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manish_okhade
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Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Posted: 17/Aug/2013 at 12:03pm
Debate is becoming ethical, Gold is too trivial a thing for national interest as we have much bigger scams/spoils to address first.

Instead if we divert whether TIL will do well or not can benefit all. Its came down from 25-30k COMPANY TO 21k cR NOW. There was huge bullishness and peopel seeing this retailer to grow to 1 lakh Cr, now its surprising to see that how TITAN is written off by one off temporary crisis.

In worst case i guess TIL can shift from pure Gold jeweller to studded or silver/stone etc. and increase the exports whatever else is in demand.


Edited by manish_okhade - 17/Aug/2013 at 12:09pm
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rajnsharma
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Quote rajnsharma Replybullet Posted: 17/Aug/2013 at 12:23pm
Changes to business model is not an easy task. It will take at least couple of years. Titan is a great company with a terrific management, it will definitely bounce back but till then opportunistic investors(like me) will sit on sidelines and watch the changes. Once the new model is proven one can jump even 30-40% higher from here and still make big money.
Wall Street makes money by it's activity, while you can make money by your in-activity - Warren Buffett
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manish_okhade
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Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Posted: 18/Aug/2013 at 4:05pm
Originally posted by rajnsharma

Changes to business model is not an easy task. It will take at least couple of years. Titan is a great company with a terrific management, it will definitely bounce back but till then opportunistic investors(like me) will sit on sidelines and watch the changes. Once the new model is proven one can jump even 30-40% higher from here and still make big money.


Each company has some fair value. It has an RoE of 40% and 25% payout so past anticipated growth is 28%. Now whats the new estimate?

RoE = 25%  [drop is conservatively assumed]
Payout = 0%
Growth rate = 20-25% so PE could be 22-25?
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Quote rajnsharma Replybullet Posted: 18/Aug/2013 at 5:28pm
Originally posted by manish_okhade


Originally posted by rajnsharma

Changes to business model is not an easy task. It will take at least couple of years. Titan is a great company with a terrific management, it will definitely bounce back but till then opportunistic investors(like me) will sit on sidelines and watch the changes. Once the new model is proven one can jump even 30-40% higher from here and still make big money.
Each company has some fair value. It has an RoE of 40% and 25% payout so past anticipated growth is 28%. Now whats the new estimate?RoE = 25%  [drop is conservatively assumed]Payout = 0%Growth rate = 20-25% so PE could be 22-25?

I would rather wait and watch than jump on it just based on past numbers. There are quite a few companies with very clear business scenario available at decent prices after the crash.
Wall Street makes money by it's activity, while you can make money by your in-activity - Warren Buffett
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values
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Quote values Replybullet Posted: 18/Aug/2013 at 6:13pm
Originally posted by rajnsharma

Originally posted by manish_okhade


Originally posted by rajnsharma

Changes to business model is not an easy task. It will take at least couple of years. Titan is a great company with a terrific management, it will definitely bounce back but till then opportunistic investors(like me) will sit on sidelines and watch the changes. Once the new model is proven one can jump even 30-40% higher from here and still make big money.
Each company has some fair value. It has an RoE of 40% and 25% payout so past anticipated growth is 28%. Now whats the new estimate?RoE = 25%  [drop is conservatively assumed]Payout = 0%Growth rate = 20-25% so PE could be 22-25?

I would rather wait and watch than jump on it just based on past numbers. There are quite a few companies with very clear business scenario available at decent prices after the crash.


Hi Rajnsharma

Could you name the companies that are now on your radar please.
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rajnsharma
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Quote rajnsharma Replybullet Posted: 18/Aug/2013 at 10:20pm
Originally posted by values

Originally posted by rajnsharma

Originally posted by manish_okhade


Originally posted by rajnsharma

Changes to business model is not an easy task. It will take at least couple of years. Titan is a great company with a terrific management, it will definitely bounce back but till then opportunistic investors(like me) will sit on sidelines and watch the changes. Once the new model is proven one can jump even 30-40% higher from here and still make big money.
Each company has some fair value. It has an RoE of 40% and 25% payout so past anticipated growth is 28%. Now whats the new estimate?RoE = 25%  [drop is conservatively assumed]Payout = 0%Growth rate = 20-25% so PE could be 22-25?

I would rather wait and watch than jump on it just based on past numbers. There are quite a few companies with very clear business scenario available at decent prices after the crash.


Hi Rajnsharma

Could you name the companies that are now on your radar please.


HDFC Bank is clear cut buy...plus there are others like Kaveri seeds and Astral Poly Tech whom one could look at

Wall Street makes money by it's activity, while you can make money by your in-activity - Warren Buffett
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manish_okhade
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Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Posted: 18/Aug/2013 at 8:49am
To me, following is the bluest of blue chipps to buy on drops:

1) HDFC Twins
2) Kotak Bank
3) PAGE
4) CERRA
5) SUPREME IND
6) eClerx
7) EMAMI 

Mgmt of above has shown good projection for business growth, sould BS and solid past growth assures bright future.


Edited by manish_okhade - 18/Aug/2013 at 8:51am
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