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subu76
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Joined: 25/Feb/2008
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Posts: 5709
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 Posted: 06/Aug/2009 at 9:35am |
Yes true.....that makes sense. Thanks Ajith.
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kumardiwesh
Senior Member
Joined: 26/May/2008
Location: India
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Posts: 721
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 Posted: 06/Aug/2009 at 10:41am |
So much oil are they planning to extract every year?
Can you put a figure to that?
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"History does not tell you the probability of future financial things happening" - Warren Buffett
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subu76
Senior Member
Joined: 25/Feb/2008
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Posts: 5709
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 Posted: 10/Aug/2009 at 11:56am |
They did 2.5 lakh barrels last year.
Management figures it will be less this year. So revenues are likely to be less this year (ignoring oil prices)
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shadows
Senior Member
Joined: 04/Feb/2009
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Posts: 221
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 Posted: 13/Aug/2009 at 10:05am |
Some brokerages are giving buy call on this with a target of 247....... i got into this two weeks back
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go4sheel
Senior Member
Joined: 23/Mar/2009
Location: India
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Posts: 105
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 Posted: 03/Sep/2009 at 3:03pm |
From the Management on 26th August 2009:
Q: Which of these fields Bakrol, Indrora or Lohar are you most bullish on for and by when do you think, which quarter going forward do you expect enhanced production to come in. I am not asking you to disclose how much you expect but in which quarter do you think more production might start?
A: In 2010-2011, should see different production rates than we have this year and probably that would mean starting with the first quarter of that year. As far as the potential is concerned, we have much more knowledge about the Bakrol field but there is every reason to believe that the Indrora field will contain far larger quantities of recoverable oil.
Q: So fiscal year 2011, starting next April, will see a dramatic and discontinuer shift in your revenue profile from the current year?
A: Yes. It will begin to see. Over the next two-three years the production levels should change quite dramatically but starting with 2010–2011 definitely we should begin to see different production rates.
Q: How much capex would you need to spend over the next 12–18 months?
A: Over the next 12–24 months, we will spend probably another Rs 100 crore. We have spent about Rs 100 crore to appraise and develop these fields and build the necessary infrastructure over the last few years. But the real question is beyond that what is the capex requirement and that would be a function of what the recovery rates we feel can be achieved. So that would indicate to us that okay you need to drill X number of wells and we know approximately how much each well costs us. However, the capex is also a function of getting the necessary approvals because you might need to drill certain number of wells that you have to carry the DGH with you and convince them so that has to be brought into the picture over the next year to 18 months.
From the above conversation we can conclude that:
1. if Bakrol field has 73 million of proven reserves then Indrora field will have much more reserves as said by management that Indrora field will have far more reserve.
2. They will be spending Rs.100 crore on capex. how will this get funded? however they have reserves but not sure how much. hope the profits or EPS will not be affected with this.
3. Also they mentioned that production will be ramped up significantly from current 2.5lk barrels to 10lk barrels in two years time, though they didnt gave exact nos. but it is anticipated. This sounds good and I think Oil prices will remain firm between $70 to $100 for next few years.
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basant
Admin Group
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 Posted: 03/Sep/2009 at 3:05pm |
Please quote the source with a link and also do not copy/paste the full text!
Edited by basant - 03/Sep/2009 at 3:05pm
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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dilip.r
Senior Member
Joined: 15/May/2010
Location: India
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Posts: 234
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 Posted: 21/Sep/2010 at 2:16pm |
Selan Exploration is interestingly poised from a longer-term perspective. We feel that the company owns five oilfields of which it is right now extracting oil from just one field, which has reserves of over 70 million barrels
read full report from link below.
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master
Senior Member
Joined: 06/May/2008
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Posts: 831
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 Posted: 21/Sep/2010 at 9:04pm |
It's a pure play on (i) quantity produced and (ii) crude prices.
On (i), they haven't ramped up in last 1 year, nor seen any management announcement to that effect. They seem to be in seismic studies and prospecting on maximising the output.
On (ii), no signs of firming up.
So what's the trigger at this juncture?
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Someone’s sitting in shade today because someone planted a tree long time ago.
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