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BubbleVision
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Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 3142
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   Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 7:00pm |
Originally posted by Janak.merchant1
The reality as perceived by me is this: He really really did not like to lose. But his love for drawing attention - attracting crowd was so strong that he needed to tell people those war type stories. And he is a handsome man. He was really in love with this idea that he can, for many many minutes make people stand and listen to him. May be he used to derive satisfaction that the fairer sex also must be admiring him for drawing so much attention of so many people. His trades were always exciting. Never boring. They had many ups and downs. What he loved was drawing attention, Not really making money.
He got what he wanted. And he continues to get what he wants. It's a trap. But he does want Attention. Not money. This is where i saw Ed Seykota's theories working. Can you, Bubble, explain this to us why this person does what he does?
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Janak Bhai...
I guess, you have already answered the question. He is trading this way, because he wants attention and NOT money. That is exactly what he wants.
The specific reason for this behaviour could be anything, from being brought up..to anything else (I dont want to speculate!). My sense is that IF he becomes a politician, then he might make money as a trader, as his Political image would garner attention!!!
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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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basant
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Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 7:04pm |
The Black Swan is a must read for anyone who thinks that he can forecast.
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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kulman
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Joined: 02/Sep/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 9319
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Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 10:10am |
Here is his definition of the characteristics of a black swan, in our markets, and, for that
matter, in our lives:
1. An outlier beyond the realm of our regular expectations. (Rarity)
2. An event that carries an extreme impact (Extremeness)
3. A happening that, after
the fact, our human nature enables us to accept by concocting explanations
that make it seem predictable (Retrospective
Predictability)
So there it is:
Rarity; extremeness; and retrospective predictability. Together they define the occurrence of an event
that is regarded as impossible, or at least highly improbable. What’s more, as Taleb notes, a Black Swan is also the reverse of this
definition: The non-occurrence of an
event that is regarded as
highly probable. Life
is full of them!
Excerpted from John Bogle's presentation on Black Monday & Black Swans.
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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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shivkumar
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Joined: 02/Oct/2007
Location: India
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Posts: 2037
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Posted: 14/Apr/2008 at 12:04pm |
Some time ago, Sucheta Dalal of Moneylife magazine had called Birla Corp a growth cum value stock. But the market meltdown has hammered Birla Corp. The stock took a hammering after employees at the company's West Bengal plant went on strike. What do TEDdies think of Birla Corporation? Some info on Birla Corporation. CMP - Rs 197.10 Market cap: Rs 1,519.70
cr. Balance Sheet info | | Mar '
07 | Mar '
06 | Mar '
05 | Mar '
04 | Mar '
03 | | SOURCES OF FUNDS | | | | | |
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| Owner's Fund | | | | | |
|---|
| Equity Share Capital | 77.01 | 77.01 | 77.01 | 77.01 | 77.01 | | Share Application Money | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Preference Share Capital | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Reserves & Surplus | 580.08 | 297.71 | 225.47 | 169.38 | 144.81 | | Loan Funds | | | | | |
|---|
| Secured Loans | 211.24 | 205.50 | 172.39 | 141.08 | 200.86 | | Unsecured Loans | 27.80 | 25.49 | 33.28 | 33.95 | 34.12 | |
| Total | 896.13 | 605.71 | 508.15 | 421.42 | 456.80 | |
| | | | | | | | USES OF FUNDS | | | | | |
|---|
| Fixed Assets | | | | | |
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| Gross Block | 1,154.35 | 1,098.07 | 876.22 | 899.49 | 883.73 | | Less : Revaluation Reserve | 8.73 | 9.52 | 10.31 | 11.11 | 12.57 | | Less : Accumulated Depreciation | 635.21 | 597.84 | 578.07 | 577.54 | 554.18 | | Net Block | 510.42 | 490.71 | 287.85 | 310.84 | 316.98 | | Capital Work-in-progress | 25.74 | 33.90 | 126.03 | 5.33 | 6.80 | | | | | | | | | Investments | 420.08 | 175.31 | 110.20 | 98.10 | 106.92 | | | | | | | | | Net Current Assets | | | | | |
|---|
| Current Assets, Loans & Advances | 502.09 | 324.87 | 289.61 | 270.98 | 254.80 | | Less : Current Liabilities & Provisions | 562.57 | 422.04 | 311.85 | 270.93 | 238.42 | | Total Net Current Assets | -60.48 | -97.17 | -22.24 | 0.05 | 16.39 | | Miscellaneous expenses not written | 0.38 | 2.96 | 6.30 | 7.11 | 9.71 | |
| Total | 896.14 | 605.71 | 508.14 | 421.43 | 456.80 | |
| Note : | | | | | | | Book Value of Unquoted Investments | 404.89 | 160.03 | 94.91 | 82.81 | 91.64 | | Market Value of Quoted Investments | 104.53 | 88.95 | 44.73 | 19.19 | 8.82 | | Contingent liabilities | 122.07 | 60.60 | 120.46 | 109.90 | 38.73 | | Number of Equity shares outstanding (in Lacs) | 770.05 | 770.05 | 770.05 | 770.05 | 770.05 |
Ratios | Mar '
07 | Mar '
06 | Mar '
05 | Mar '
04 | Mar '
03 | | PER SHARE RATIOS | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Adjusted E P S (Rs.) | 41.55 | 15.69 | 9.80 | 4.20 | -1.60 | | Adjusted Cash EPS (Rs.) | 46.70 | 20.13 | 13.67 | 8.57 | 2.58 | | Reported EPS (Rs.) | 42.36 | 16.33 | 11.28 | 5.40 | 0.54 | | Reported Cash EPS (Rs.) | 47.51 | 20.77 | 15.16 | 9.77 | 4.73 | | Dividend Per Share | 3.50 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | | Operating Profit Per Share (Rs.) | 64.11 | 23.31 | 16.66 | 9.00 | 6.40 | | Book Value (Excl Rev Res) Per Share (Rs.) | 85.28 | 48.28 | 38.46 | 31.07 | 27.55 | | Book Value (Incl Rev Res) Per Share (Rs.) | 86.41 | 49.51 | 39.80 | 32.52 | 29.18 | | Net Operating Income Per Share (Rs.) | 203.43 | 158.23 | 147.88 | 134.37 | 122.68 | | Free Reserves Per Share (Rs.) | 75.07 | 38.07 | 28.25 | 20.70 | 16.69 | | | | | | | | | PROFITABILITY RATIOS | | | | | |
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| | | | | | | | Operating Margin (%) | 31.51 | 14.72 | 11.26 | 6.70 | 5.21 | | Gross Profit Margin (%) | 28.98 | 11.92 | 8.64 | 3.44 | 1.80 | | Net Profit Margin (%) | 20.56 | 10.25 | 7.59 | 3.93 | 0.44 | | Adjusted Cash Margin (%) | 22.66 | 12.64 | 9.20 | 6.24 | 2.09 | | Adjusted Return On Net Worth (%) | 48.71 | 32.50 | 25.47 | 13.52 | -5.82 | | Reported Return On Net Worth (%) | 49.67 | 33.82 | 29.33 | 17.37 | 1.97 | | Return On long Term Funds (%) | 60.06 | 28.92 | 23.09 | 16.79 | 5.99 | | | | | | | | | LEVERAGE RATIOS | | | | | |
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| | | | | | | | Long Term Debt / Equity | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.65 | | Total Debt/Equity | 0.36 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 1.06 | | Owners fund as % of total Source | 73.32 | 61.86 | 59.52 | 58.46 | 48.56 | | Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio | 1.36 | 1.11 | 1.30 | 1.15 | 1.07 | | | | | | | | | LIQUIDITY RATIOS | | | | | |
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| | | | | | | | Current Ratio | 0.89 | 0.76 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.07 | | Current Ratio (Inc. ST Loans) | 0.66 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.57 | | Quick Ratio | 0.61 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.45 | 0.42 | | Inventory Turnover Ratio | 23.53 | 26.83 | 21.01 | 17.38 | 17.17 | | | | | | | | | PAYOUT RATIOS | | | | | |
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| | | | | | | | Dividend payout Ratio (Net Profit) | 9.66 | 15.70 | 15.16 | 20.90 | 0.00 | | Dividend payout Ratio (Cash Profit) | 8.61 | 12.35 | 11.28 | 11.54 | 0.00 | | Earning Retention Ratio | 90.15 | 83.66 | 82.55 | 73.16 | 100.00 | | Cash Earnings Retention Ratio | 91.24 | 87.26 | 87.50 | 86.85 | 100.00 | | | | | | | | | COVERAGE RATIOS | | | | | |
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| | | | | | | | Adjusted Cash Flow Time Total Debt | 0.66 | 1.49 | 1.95 | 2.65 | 11.84 | | Financial Charges Coverage Ratio | 27.72 | 13.73 | 6.17 | 3.63 | 1.71 | | Fin. Charges Cov.Ratio (Post Tax) | 20.75 | 12.74 | 6.38 | 3.99 | 2.15 | | | | | | | | | COMPONENT RATIOS | | | | | |
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| | | | | | | | Material Cost Component(% earnings) | 19.49 | 22.00 | 23.90 | 29.26 | 28.33 | | Selling Cost Component | 12.75 | 14.87 | 15.52 | 16.73 | 17.02 | | Exports as percent of Total Sales | 2.97 | 4.24 | 7.48 | 4.90 | 5.10 | | Import Comp. in Raw Mat. Consumed | 16.06 | 14.80 | 7.87 | 6.77 | 2.82 | | Long term assets / Total Assets | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.62 | | Bonus Component In Equity Capital (%) | 35.90 | 35.90 | 35.90 | 35.90 | 35.90 |
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basant
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Posted: 14/Apr/2008 at 3:57pm |
This is a Ramdeo Afavourite and will move in tandem with cement prices. I hear that after taking over the assets of the MP Birla group RS Lodha has initiated efficiency programs for all MP Birla companies and they are expected to deliver.
But finally it is a commodity player whose fortunes are linked to the price of the unbderlying product.
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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tigershark
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Posted: 27/Jun/2008 at 9:56pm |
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dr doom sees big time correction in commodities in 2nd half of this yr.full report on bs.for once let us hope the pony tail is right.he also loves taiwnese stocks and goes to say that china is not yet in buying territory.
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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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basant
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Posted: 27/Jun/2008 at 10:08pm |
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I almost fell off my chair as I heard him say that even the Fed can fail!!!
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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paragdesai
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Joined: 22/Oct/2007
Location: India
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Posted: 27/Jun/2008 at 10:15pm |
Originally posted by basant
I almost fell off my chair as I heard him say that even the Fed can fail!!! |
I am not able to identified the person whom you talk about but FED has lost their CREDENTIAL that for sure.
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