Vivek bhai....interesting post.

 

Originally posted by kg hi teddies thanks for ur contribution ....i got some clarity ..particularly the one thought wich basantji gave on not selling ever...and also the ones on opportunity cost but the dilemma which i have is as follows wich i want to elaborate ...   a) Lets say i had a stock NELCO / Neyveli Lignite - stock which did not move for last 1 years at all. Always stayed at the same levels irrespective of markets going to new highs. Then i saw the opportunity cost of holding it and decided to exit them and move to higher potential stocks....and then these stocks suddenly became rockets becoming 2 - 3 bagger in one or two months time   b) HEG similarly was moving good from 50 - 150 it went and then was stuck there for quite some time so i decided to exit and then suddenly there was a hidden power play story which unfolded and stock js multiplied.   c) Agrotech - one of RJ picks - again not showing much movement since i picked up ...may be a year and found again opportunity cost going down ..also read abt it sluggishness in past so sold it and since then it went up like rocket    d) Grasim - cement - govt intervention - prices getting peaked out ..so thought of exiting and since then it goes up by 25% in one mth   e) GSFC / GNFC - fertiliser company - suddenly govt changing minds / policy / govt intervention...   f) Tata chemicals - again not much movement - thought other stocks of the new age may add an edge ...again carpet bombed in this case .   f) In all above stocks i made decent profits ...the one in which i was making loss ...maharastra seamless ...trading opportunity ...i waited but then exited when the loss was mounting ...and this was really like bad luck i sold at 10:30 and the stock went up 10% the same afternoon....   Selling for me has always been difficult and though i tried exiting a lot of small qty holding in my portfolio i hv not been very successful.    One of the reason as i could understand was that i did not research all these stock well before exiting as i had too many a stocks in portfolio ..many of them being there for many years and not even purchased by me ...i agree to review of the exit price philosophy also but when targets are achieved in no time ...wat do u do ...others yet to figure out ...shd we think abt it a lot or jss leave it ...and move on .   Thanks.

Very reasonable argument. I faced this problem between October 2003 and Jan 2005 when TV18 moved in the range of Rs 145 ~ Rs 240 several times (pre demerger )and though it went up 10 ~20 times post depending on when an investor got in I could really overload on the stoc because :
1. The co was a small cap and relatively undiscovered except Reliance MF no other fund owed it.

2. Each quarter's result showed increased profits and robust growth. Co initiated new developments and was aggressively moving towards a full fledged media co from a single channel stock mkt commentator.

3. The main thing was change each quarter the stock became cheap and the management added new business verticals so we were investing in change i.e stock becoming cheap every 3 months.

If the stock does not become cheap every 3 months at stable prices or the co does not add revenue lines then the stock needs to be sold and any subsequent stk price movement should be taken as a matter of chance.

10 baggers, 20 , 50 or 100 baggers.

In my 30+ yrs experience of Indian and International markets, I have seen lots of ups and downs.