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Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
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Message Icon Topic: William O Neil -CANSLIM Man and his quotes Post Reply Post New Topic
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India_Bull
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Quote India_Bull Replybullet Posted: 25/Aug/2007 at 12:39pm

Look for Accelerating Quarterly Earnings Growth:

what is crucial is not just that earnings are up or that a certain price-to-earnings ratio  exists; it is the change and improvement from the stock's prior percentage rate of earning increases that causes a supreme price surge.

If a Company's earnings are up 15% a year and suddenly begin spurting 40% to 50% a year, it usually creates the basic conditions for important stock price improvement.

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Quote India_Bull Replybullet Posted: 25/Aug/2007 at 12:51pm

Two Quarters of Major Earnings Deceleration May Mean Trouble :

When the rate of earnings growth Starts to slow and begins meaningful deceleration (for instance, a 50% rate of increase suddenly
decreases to only 15% for a couple quarters), the security probably has either topped out permanently, regardless of what analysts say.

I prefer to see two quarters of material slowdown before turning negative on a company's earnings since the best of organizations can periodically have one slow quarter.

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Quote India_Bull Replybullet Posted: 25/Aug/2007 at 12:56pm

To say the security is undervalued just because it is selling at a certain price-earnings ratio or because it is in the low range of its historical P/E ratio is  usually nonsense unless primary consideration has first been given to whether the momentum and rate of change in earnings is substantially increasing or decreasing.

(Perhaps this partially explains who so few public or institutional
investors, such as banks and insurance companies, make worthwhile
money following the buy-and-sell recommendations of most securities analysts.)

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Quote India_Bull Replybullet Posted: 25/Aug/2007 at 1:05am
A from CANSLIM:

A = Annual Earnings Increases;Look for Meaningful Growth :
If you want to
own part of a business in your home town, do you choose a steadily growing, successful concern or one that is unsuccessful, not growing and highly cyclical? Most of you would prefer a business that is  showing profitable growth. That's exactly what you should look for in common stocks.

 "Each year's annual earnings per share for the last five years should show an increase over the prior year's earnings."


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Quote India_Bull Replybullet Posted: 25/Aug/2007 at 1:13am

Check the Stability of a Company's Five-Year

Earnings Record:

While the percentage rate of increase in earnings is most important, an additional factor of value, is the stability and consistency of the past five years' earnings.

All other things being equal, you may want to choose the security showing a greater degree of consistency and stability in past earnings growth.

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Quote India_Bull Replybullet Posted: 25/Aug/2007 at 1:19am

Insist on Both Annual and Current Quarterly Earnings Being Excellent :

We prefer to see current quarterly earnings accelerating or at least maintaining the trend of several past quarters. A standout stock needs a sound growth record during recent years but also needs a strong current  earnings record in the last few quarters.

 It is the unique combination of these two critical factors, rather than one or the other being outstanding,that creates a superb stock, or at least one that has a higher chance of  true success.

 

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Quote India_Bull Replybullet Posted: 25/Aug/2007 at 1:29am

Are Price-Earnings Ratios Important?

How important is it in selecting stocks?

Prepare yourself for a bubble-bursting surprise.

P/E ratios have been used for years by analysts as their basic measurement tool in deciding if a stock is undervalued (has a low P/E) and should be bought or is overvalued (has a high P/E) and should be sold.

Factual analysis of each cycle's winning stocks shows that P/E ratios have very little to do with whether a stock should be bought or not. A stock's P/E ratio is not normally an important cause of the most successful stock moves. Our model book studies proved the percentage increase in earnings per share was substantially more crucial than the P/E ratio as a cause of impressive stock performance.

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Quote India_Bull Replybullet Posted: 25/Aug/2007 at 1:34am

Don't buy a stock solely because the P/E ratio looks cheap.

There usually are good reasons why it is cheap, and there is no golden rule in the marketplace that a stock which sells at eight or ten times earnings can not eventually sell at four or five times earnings.


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