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reetesh
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Joined: 01/Sep/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 793
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   Posted: 16/Sep/2006 at 1:06pm |
Mr. Kulman, I am not that kind of person, please get out of your mind set. I apologised for what I did please stop this and that was not TIP, it was a sincere advice to people like PKB who does not want buffet quotes..
All they want to talk about stocks, I hope you are getting me.
Regards,
Reetesh.
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When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
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BubbleVision
Senior Member
Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 3142
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Posted: 16/Sep/2006 at 1:22pm |
Reetesh... I would NOT call KP market terrorrist.. as he has given all of us a very important Lesson
Look.. he was long on TMT stocks in the 1999-2000 rally as the markets which was the right way as the path of least resistance (as livermore defined) was upwards, but he did not change with the new reality of the markets when the path of least Resistance turned downward. He was Subborn and held onto positions to try to change the path of least Resisatnce..This is where he got crushed.
The biggest lesson is that no one can ever manipulate or change the markets. Markets are a free entity and it is we who have to change according to the new realities.
The Traders or investors are blaming him because they dont take responsibility.. Look how BasantJi, who also sufferred a loss at that time learnt all the lessons and come back stronger.. The Character of a Human is tested when he is down.. and BasantJi has come out with flying colours.
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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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reetesh
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Joined: 01/Sep/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 793
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Posted: 16/Sep/2006 at 1:45pm |
No no no, I am not doubting his credentials, all I am saying is he was not right in giving example of conviction and saying what he did was right but he could not cash on because he did`nt knew the fine line that divides Conviction and Stubborness.. Thats all I am saying.
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When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
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BubbleVision
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Joined: 05/Aug/2006
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Posted: 16/Sep/2006 at 1:55pm |
Ya i never said that you are doubting his credentials....
Conviction comes form Research (tech or funda) ... and if KP would have researched his stocks.. then he would have sold, as to he would have known how "overvalued" or how "OverBrought" the stocks he was holding has become..
I would like to put example of Ra..Damani... he was the first one to be very bullish on TMT in 1995, and when it topped in 2000, he got out AFTER the mkt had topped.
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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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basant
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Posted: 16/Sep/2006 at 1:56pm |
Now lets talk about fine line dividing Conviction and Stubborn.. Rakesh bought CRISIL in early 90`s and that did`nt moved untill 2000 or so till 99 you can say he was stubborn he is not selling this stock is worth peanuts and in 2006 we all including him praise him for his Investment in CRISIL,
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Stubbornes comes when we know that things are going out of hand (fundamentals are deteriorating) but still we are holding onto our position because we believe that there is a "lesser possibility" of events changing back.
The most important word is "lesser possibility" now KP was dancing even while the music had stopped. He did not try to look into reality. Rakesh held on to Crisil because there was nothing wrong with Crisl. Say tomorrow if any of the companies in which I have invested starts to lose market share and shows reduced / falling profits I would sell out even if that happens at 40% downtick to todays prices. Now if I continue to hold on thinking that events would change and I believe that the probalility of such a change is less then 50%. I would be called stubborn.
Once a girl was murmuring in her sleep. Oh God please make Amritsar the capital of india.Oh God please make Amritsar the capital of india....
Her mother asked what is your problem why do you want Amritsar to be the capital of India? The girl replied back "coz that is what I wrote in my geography exam!"
That was stubbornes.
Conviction changes to stubborness when investors do not want to exit at lower prices in the event of changing fundamentals.
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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BubbleVision
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Posted: 16/Sep/2006 at 2:05pm |
Great explanation BasantJi... for the Funda guys, we would say... changing Fundamentals and the Tech trend Followers like me would say... new realities and new Emerging trends....
The one who does not change his views according to new realities gets crushed.. Like KP was.
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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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reetesh
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Posted: 16/Sep/2006 at 2:10pm |
I wonder why 90% of people lose money in market.
But I think there are cycles in every business, and it is hard to take a call 15 to 20 year holding period if profit falls or did`nt grow for 2 years in any company, many investor would sell his stocks, I would again give example TV TODAY and MID-DAY two of Rakesh`s picks that has not performed since he bought, infact their fundamental are going down Q after Q, then you would say that he is "Stubborn"?
Now, about RD turning bullish in TMT I dint know, but I know this that even he was stuck in TMT stocks in 2000 like NIIT etc.... He gave a BUY call on CNBC in 2003 saying INFY will not see this figure again Rs.5000 in 2003 itself it fell to 3000 odd.
Reetesh..
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When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
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BubbleVision
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Posted: 16/Sep/2006 at 2:43pm |
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Ya Reetesh.. this is what i was saying... that he got out of NIIT AFTER the mkt topped (he adjusted with new realities)... As for Infy in 2003.. he made a "Value" call and he may have changed his views, which CNBC did not show...This is the folly of using the media.
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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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