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Equity Valuation Techniques
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prashantmohta
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Quote prashantmohta Replybullet Posted: 10/May/2009 at 12:53pm
Return on stocks will depend on earnings,dividend and dividend growth.

One must have to do blood test of management before buying any co.
Ex.whole two wheeler industry is struggling and hero Honda making new highs.what more u want.

If the blood is good then whenever economy revives or industry your stocks will pay u handsomely.that's why buffet says don't worry if your company doesnot show good eps in one or two year.

Good management or good business will have high roe and has a habbit of paying good dividends.

Edited by prashantmohta - 10/May/2009 at 12:56pm
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 10/May/2009 at 7:24am
Originally posted by prashantmohta

Return on stocks will depend on earnings,dividend and dividend growth.
 
Also p/e expansion. This is where the relative comparision and past data is useful


Edited by subu76 - 10/May/2009 at 7:42am
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prashantmohta
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Quote prashantmohta Replybullet Posted: 10/May/2009 at 8:34am
Pe depends on the mood of onvestors.
Actually it's depends on the expectation of dividends growth in coming years.

High pe or low it wiill revert back to it's mean.

Edited by prashantmohta - 10/May/2009 at 8:36am
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prashantmohta
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Quote prashantmohta Replybullet Posted: 10/May/2009 at 8:53am
Can anybody illustrate here dividend earning ratio instead of price earning ratio.
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 10/May/2009 at 9:28am
Originally posted by prashantmohta

Pe depends on the mood of onvestors.
Actually it's depends on the expectation of dividends growth in coming years.

High pe or low it wiill revert back to it's mean.
 
A patient investor should probabily try to use this volatility to his advantage.
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 10/May/2009 at 9:52am
Originally posted by prashantmohta

Can anybody illustrate here dividend earning ratio instead of price earning ratio.
 
Its the same a PE Ratio adjusted for the Payout Ratio. One can find little from sych ratios in isolation unless they are coupled with the other evaluation tools.
 


Edited by basant - 10/May/2009 at 10:02am
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 20/May/2009 at 1:20pm
IMO another criteria to add to the valuation technique is related to how low the price can go.
 
Will the stock become doubly attractive if the price goes down by 50%? Will i double my bet? (assuming no fundamentally new development has happened)
 
It's a subjective thing.
 
for e.g. for me one such stock is hawkins...market cap about 100 cr now...if hawkins go down by 50% i'd welcome the opportunity to double my bet. offcourse beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder.
 
 
 


Edited by subu76 - 20/May/2009 at 1:24pm
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praveen
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Quote praveen Replybullet Posted: 22/May/2009 at 1:35pm

Over and above whatever is already discussed I do like to look at break-up of ROE to test its robustness.

ROE can be broken up into 3 components.
 
1. Net profit margin
2. Equity turnover
3. Leverage
 
Net profit margin
 
I look at net margins first then look at local industry wide net margins, then try to find out global net margins in that industry. (Idea is to test the sustainability of that net margins.)
 
I also look at historical variations in net margins. If I see a huge difference in last few years compared to a much longer history, I try to find the reasons for same.
 
I tend to prefer companies with net margins equal or slightly higher than peers. Slightly higher shows some pricing power. I am though wary if the margins are too high compared to peers. In most cases it is not sustainable.
 
Equity Turnover
 
I love companies with high/increasing equity turnover. Generally equity turnover is fairly robust and doesn't decrease that often unless there is some external impact on the capital structure. Increasing equity turnover without increase in debts shows that capital requirement for incremantal revenue generation is quite low which is always welcome. High equity turnovers with  reasonable net margins can create sustainable high ROEs.
 
Leverage
 
I like companies with some debt on their books because debt disciplines a company. However these companies should have ample scope for additional debt or leverage because that provides the flexibility to fund growth and also it can increase the ROEs.
Debt levels i look for is roughly
Debt to equity ratio less than 0.5x or
Debt to EBITDA less than 1.5x
Obviously above mentioned figures can vary depending upon industry and other factors.
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