TheEquityDeskReportCard Dec 2008

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Identifying Multibaggers
The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Identifying Multibaggers

Topic: TheEquityDeskReportCard Dec 2008

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tarkeshwar
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Joined: 14/Oct/2007
Location: India
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Posts: 140

Posted: 04/Jan/2009 at 4:19pm

Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

If I have to draw any lesson from looking at this, i would say, if you dont know to trade out your way, its becomes very difficult to make a cult for yourself.

Vivekbhai, baat kuch samajh nahi ayi

My learning is: Most of the TED companies have:
1. easily understable business? Yes
2. favorable long term prospects? Yes
3. honest and competent management? Yes
4. been bought at attractive prices? No

That was the risk of buying growth companies in a bull market and paying extra for hope. Taking only mispriced bets and waiting till they are available is a more sound strategy.

Situation is flipped now. 1-3 still exist mostly and 4 is much more favorable. Time to act is now!

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nav_1996
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Joined: 08/Sep/2006
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Posts: 803

Posted: 04/Jan/2009 at 5:17pm

Few points:
1. FMCG needs a place in TED XI.
2. Dish TV should be out. No cometitive edge.
3. ENIL: Good but does it need a place in TED XI.
4. Heavy concentration of Finance companies.
5. Voltas and Blue Star: Two leading companies from same area. Can we look at some engineering companies which caters to differnt area (e.g. Thermax, BHEL) or caters to broader segment (L&T).

Edited by nav_1996 - 04/Jan/2009 at 5:20pm

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Chetan Panchal
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Joined: 14/May/2008
Location: United Arab Emirates
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Posts: 86

Posted: 04/Jan/2009 at 6:58pm

I think

1) DISH TV should not be removed as its earnings visibility is in FY10 & it was very well known that it will start making profit in fy09-10.Hence we have to wait till that period.

2) TED comapnies have seen Bull & Bear run in last two years.In bull run not only TED recomm.comp.but almost all scrips reach the peak & vice versa.But this bear run gave us the chance to identify the diff between horses & donkeys.

Now we have to see how many of present TED comp.is still competitive & able to fetch a robust return.We have to make a best combination which can give BEST RETURNS in next two - three years.

3) Looking at these I am pessimist abt voltas.

Another thing 1 portfolio of all TED companies should be made based on its purchase price & measure the gain or loss to able to gauge correctly the Loss/Gain for TED stocks.

A new List of recomm.should be prepare of the stock which can be bought at present level & hold for say 2-3 years.

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Vivek Sukhani
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Joined: 23/Jul/2006
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Posts: 6675

Posted: 04/Jan/2009 at 12:18pm

Originally posted by tarkeshwar

Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

If I have to draw any lesson from looking at this, i would say, if you dont know to trade out your way, its becomes very difficult to make a cult for yourself.

Vivekbhai, baat kuch samajh nahi ayi

Hi Tarakeshwar,

I was also thinking along the same lines. Except that I look for for very very attractive prices. Also, I am a fan of absolute numbers rather than relative numbers.

So, for me, growth means nothing at all. I belong to the old school and I go for payback in bookvalue and dividend and price terms. I invest if and only if, after 5 years, the book value of the company, alongwith dividends received, should be at least equal to the price I pay today. And this is where i play my bargains. I will not mind selling my tickets of Larsen and making it go into Voith.

Of course, I break the rules, but thats only for very very big brands....like a Castrol or a Glaxo or an ITC. But, there I will pinch myself 15 times to convince myself that I am not getting into a duds.

At the end of the day, you should keep your ears closed and keep your eyes open when you make a purchase. If you dont believe in your instincts, never be in this place. No one is God or Prophet here.......

Jai Guru!!!

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furkanalam
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Joined: 08/Nov/2007
Location: India
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Posts: 404

Posted: 08/Jan/2009 at 3:09pm

Yes i also think that TED X1 should be changed and good stocks should replace the duds. Time has changed and so should TED XI. This kind of crisis no one had witnessed. This has taught us a lot and we should not feel ashamed to replace stocks which we had voiced for earlier.

This crisis will surely tell us the good from the bad. We need to keep on tracking it and learning along the way.

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praveen
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Joined: 09/May/2008
Location: India
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Posts: 543

Posted: 11/Jan/2009 at 11:31am

Out of the underperformers, I think Inox, PVR & Amara should do well going forward. Though I dont like PVR because of warrant issue

The quest for knowledge is a never ending Journey

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basant
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Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 18403

Posted: 11/Jan/2009 at 11:39am

I thhought investors had a short memory

'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

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praveen
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Joined: 09/May/2008
Location: India
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Posts: 543

Posted: 11/Jan/2009 at 11:46am

Originally posted by basant

I thhought investors had a short memory

Not me

. BTW basantji your views on the 3, I have listed.

The quest for knowledge is a never ending Journey

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