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Posted: 16/Mar/2009 at 11:56am
Rally to last till April-end, collapse by Dec: Marc Faber
Published on Tue, Mar 17, 2009 at 10:43 , Updated at Tue, Mar 17, 2009 at 11:13 Source : CNBC-TV18 Marc
Faber, Author, Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said the rally in US
markets is likely to continue till April-end, but was quick to add that
a total collapse is seen by year-end. "The S&P 500 is unlikely to
hit lows below 666."
Asian equities, Faber said, are likely to get cheaper versus the US. "So, it is a good time to buy into these markets."
He feels China may not grow at 8% this year as the economy is in recession.
According to Faber, gold could test USD 700 per ounce. He added that it is expensive versus industrial commodities.
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Posted: 08/Jun/2009 at 1:28pm
See high risk in entering equities now: Marc Faber
Published on Mon, Jun 08, 2009 at 09:42 , Updated at Mon, Jun 08, 2009 at 11:51 Source : CNBC-TV18
Marc
Faber, Investment Guru, www.gloomboomdoom.com, sees a high risk in
entering equities now. "This is not a good time to enter equities,
except for traders."
He has booked some profits in Asia and finds valuations there reasonable.
According to Faber, India has good growth potential, but was quick to add that economic, political uncertainty remains.
He does not see attractive entry points for commodities currently.
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Marc Faber on CNBC-TV18. Also see the accompanying video.
Q:
In the last few days, global markets have sort of been ranging. Do you
see this as a consolidation before another leg of the upmove or is it
just tiring out?
A:
I would say that the entry point for people who want to buy equities
around the world is a high risk entry point because the global economy
has bottomed out. There is little potential to grow very strongly. So,
there will be disappointments in terms of earnings in the second half
of 2009. The gravy is a bit out of markets. India was below 8,000 on the Sensex and has gone up almost 100%. I don’t think it is a very good time to make an entry into the markets except for traders.
Q: Till Friday last week, the Dow had almost reversed all its losses in 2009. How would you map the second half of this year?
A:
In the long-term, the dollar would be a weak currency. But we have a
lot of volatility and can go either way. No paper currency is very
desirable. That is the problem.
Q: If you had positions in Asian equities at this point, would you be taking profits or would you remain invested?
A: I have taken some money off the table. In Asia,
we have lots of stock markets and lots of stocks that have reasonable
valuation. I wouldn’t say very cheap, but reasonable valuation. If you
have a long-term time horizon and have cash flow whereby you can buy
more shares if they should go down, then I would say hold them. But as
a trader, I think as of today I would rather sell than buy.
Q: Where does India fit-in in that valuation spectrum? Do you agree with the theory that has been put forth that India now deserves a premium to other emerging markets or maybe even Asian markets?
A: I think that India
has of course good growth potential, but there are still lots of
uncertainty, both political and economic. As a trader, I would rather
sell India than buy it. But as a long-term investor, I would hold here in India.
Q:
Do you think commodities are also about to top out? If you look at
crude and even metals, would you be taking profits here if you had
positions?
A:
Yes, I have had positions. Many resource stocks have more than doubled
from the lows. Some have even tripled. I don’t think that it is a very
attractive entry point to buy these commodities and commodity-related
stocks.
Oil
is up almost 100% from the lows. The demand for oil is still rising but
not as much as before. There is plenty of flight. So, I just don’t
think it is a very good time to buy.
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Posted: 26/Dec/2009 at 7:20pm
“The federal government is sending each of us a USD600 rebate. If we spend that money at Wal- Mart, the money goes to China. If we spend it on gasoline it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer it will go to India. If we purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. If we purchase a good car it will go to Germany. If we purchase useless crap it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the American economy. The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in US. I have been doing my part.” MarkFaber
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Posted: 26/Dec/2009 at 7:21pm
India His point of view on India - Dr. Faber stated that with a middle class of 230 million people buying cars like the USD2,500 Nanos and other goods, a huge improvement in their standard of living and social class was underway. He believes that with the same wages, if the affordability goes up, then the Indian economy is on the right path to grow. He feels that with only 30% of the total population residing in cities, the remaining towns and rural parts are a major opportunity to grow and create newer cities. While he felt that Indian markets were not as compelling in the near term, he conceded that they offered great value in the long term - with a very positive bias toward the financial sector. India will continue to grow despite its internal problems Comparing India with US of 18th century, Dr. Faber said that US faced much more problems and challenges than India. US even faced a civil war but still managed to grow and become a super power. He admits that while India continues to have its own set of problems, it will continue with despite all this. Summing up he said ‘There is no one more skeptical of India, than Indians themselves’, and though ironical, it holds true in the deepest sense..
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