Active TopicsActive Topics  Display List of Forum MembersMemberlist  CalendarCalendar  Search The ForumSearch  HelpHelp
  RegisterRegister  LoginLogin

Commodities - Gurus call it the best hedge in current times
 The Equity Desk Forum :Economy, Markets and commodities :Commodities - Gurus call it the best hedge in current times
Message Icon Topic: Commodities---Stop Loss!!! Post Reply Post New Topic
<< Prev Page  of 5 Next >>
Author Message
Janak.merchant1
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: 14/Jan/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 364
Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 3:04pm
Originally posted by BubbleVision

Originally posted by Janak.merchant1

 
Speculation is very very unhealthy and unwealthy. Capital can get wiped off very easily. You just have to pick up phone and do silly things.
 
Be very careful with what you are doing. Speculation seems to be easy option to make money. And it is also easiest way to the poorhouse for people who do not know what they are doing. Many MBAs and so called intellectuals also have also burnt their fingers trying to make easy money in commodity speculation. Except one person whom i do not know personally, but have met, I do not know of anybody in India, who has made big money speculating.
 
Focus on your career. Be productive. Become knowledgeable.
 
JM
 
 
Hi Bubble,
 
Janak bhai....some call it speculation and others call it "Research", and descipline, and importantly have the coimmitment to believe in the research.
 
Afterall, we are in the business of "Anticipating the anticipation of others". One has to be proactive along with reactive to make money in the markets.
 
The Sad part of the markets is not the hardwork does not always pay off, as one could make a mistake in risk management. So to make money, one has to get the complete puzzle picture correct, rather than leaving only leaving only one cell in the wrong place to get the wrong picture.
 
Rembember....Markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.
 
 
 
Dear Bubble,
 
My this post was not meant for people-speculators or knowledgeable people who know what they r doing.
 
Of cource money can be made by intelligent moves in trading. No doubt about it. I am not against trading or speculation!Smile
 
But only people who really know what they are doing, what the odds are, what is the risk reward ratio etc can make money.
 
Educational degrees only may not be that useful in trading field. Here you require much more. Not many people with MBA degrees are ready to admit their mistakes. Their ego stops them from doing that. If they lose, they will blame it on markets, circumstances and what not. So they become what Kulman says:In the end they all are Mungerilals. Most people will talk about their profits. Very few are ready to admit my mistakes. I feel profitable trading can be learnt by keeping an open mind.
 
Profitable trading requires much more than what is usually visible to most. For most people it is the wish-hope of making easy money that pushes them into trading. They feel that they are capable. Just like succesful investing, trading requires lots of homework. And the good news for successful traders is that very few are ready to put in so much efforts.
 
I have never traded anything in F & O in my life.
 
Bubble, in past i have had occasion to observe one of my friend closely do  his trading . He just specialised Sw and focused on Satyam. He used to inform me in advance about the likely moves based on the trading system he had devised based on 10 different parameters. He was right most of the time. We offered him to manage our money at very favorable terms/ This was six seven years ago. But he refused. He was afraid of losing our money. I do not know what stopped him but as Ed says, everybody gets what they want. We can meet that person when u visit BBY.
 
Best wishes,
 
JM
 
 
 
 


Edited by Janak.merchant1 - 13/Apr/2008 at 3:06pm
I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
IP IP Logged
aloksahi1971
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: 20/Aug/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 390
Quote aloksahi1971 Replybullet Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 3:42pm
Janakji, My quest is not to look at the charts and trade at each spike it is to buy and hold after understanding the underlying basics.A few days back aperson introduced me to the fact that Fuel prices go up in the summer due to the driving season ,these knowledge I did not have as I always thougt that the cost of oil will go up in the winter for heating purpose.
IP IP Logged
BubbleVision
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3142
Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 3:48pm
Originally posted by Janak.merchant1

 
Dear Bubble,
 
My this post was not meant for people-speculators or knowledgeable people who know what they r doing. ......
 
Educational degrees only may not be that useful in trading field. Here you require much more. ..... I feel profitable trading can be learnt by keeping an open mind....
 
 
I have no point of disagreement with you. I for one absolutely agree.
 
Other than that, you know, I completly believe in ...Win or lose, everybody gets what they want from the market. Some people like to lose, so they win by losing money.” ....Ed Seykotya
 
Intensions = Results.
 
 
 
 
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
IP IP Logged
BubbleVision
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3142
Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 3:57pm
Originally posted by aloksahi1971

A few days back aperson introduced me to the fact that Fuel prices go up in the summer due to the driving season ,these knowledge I did not have as I always thougt that the cost of oil will go up in the winter for heating purpose.
 
That's pure spin. By the same logic, one should always be "Long" on Oil forever, as the driving season and winter keep coming alternatively every year.
 
Why did Crude collapse in the summer of 2006 then?? It also collapsed in the Jan-2007, which to me is peak winter. Look at the historical monthly returns data, and it would give you the correct picture.
 
BTW, I can add one more reason for Crude moving in the "Summer"...The hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico from June-July till end of November.
 
Intense hurricane activity = High crude prices.
 
 
 
 
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
IP IP Logged
Janak.merchant1
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: 14/Jan/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 364
Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 5:18pm
Originally posted by BubbleVision

Originally posted by Janak.merchant1

 
Dear Bubble,
 
My this post was not meant for people-speculators or knowledgeable people who know what they r doing. ......
 
Educational degrees only may not be that useful in trading field. Here you require much more. ..... I feel profitable trading can be learnt by keeping an open mind....
 
 
I have no point of disagreement with you. I for one absolutely agree.
 
Other than that, you know, I completly believe in ...Win or lose, everybody gets what they want from the market. Some people like to lose, so they win by losing money.” ....Ed Seykotya
 
Intensions = Results.
 
 
 
 
 
Hi Bubble,
 
Many, in fact most people do not realise what he meant by Win or lose, everybody gets what they want from the market. Some people like to lose, so they win by losing money.
 
I have a relative who always has war type stories of his adventures in stocks-trading. During parties-marriages, many people gather around him to listen to his adventures. In each case, he will have differnt story, mostly the latest one. People are eager to to listen to him make and lose money.
 
I used to listen to the first part, how he made money.  In all cases it was just plain luck. No thorough analysis. And he hates me.  For obvious reasons. Well, he does not seem to have made any money in last 40 years. And now he is old.
But his habits do not die. I have learnt a lot from this person's life. If you challenge this person, he will start calling you names. Ouch.
 
Whenever i hear his group of people being bullish, i am usually very careful And yes they were very bullish from Dec 2007.
 
Best wishes,
 
 
I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
IP IP Logged
BubbleVision
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3142
Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 6:04pm
Originally posted by Janak.merchant1

 
I have a relative who always has war type stories of his adventures in stocks-trading. During parties-marriages, many people gather around him to listen to his adventures. In each case, he will have differnt story, mostly the latest one. People are eager to to listen to him make and lose money.
 
I used to listen to the first part, how he made money.  In all cases it was just plain luck. No thorough analysis. And he hates me.  For obvious reasons. Well, he does not seem to have made any money in last 40 years. And now he is old.
But his habits do not die. I have learnt a lot from this person's life. If you challenge this person, he will start calling you names. Ouch.
 
 
So for him....is this applicable??
 
"Some people like to lose, so they win by losing money."
 
 
 
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
IP IP Logged
Janak.merchant1
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: 14/Jan/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 364
Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 6:34pm
Originally posted by BubbleVision

Originally posted by Janak.merchant1

 
I have a relative who always has war type stories of his adventures in stocks-trading. During parties-marriages, many people gather around him to listen to his adventures. In each case, he will have differnt story, mostly the latest one. People are eager to to listen to him make and lose money.
 
I used to listen to the first part, how he made money.  In all cases it was just plain luck. No thorough analysis. And he hates me.  For obvious reasons. Well, he does not seem to have made any money in last 40 years. And now he is old.
But his habits do not die. I have learnt a lot from this person's life. If you challenge this person, he will start calling you names. Ouch.
 
 
So for him....is this applicable??
 
"Some people like to lose, so they win by losing money."
 
 
 
The reality as perceived by me is this: He really really did not like to lose. But his love for drawing attention - attracting crowd was so strong that he needed to tell people those war type stories. And he is a handsome man.  He was really in love with this idea that he can, for many many minutes make people stand and listen to him. May be he used to derive satisfaction that the fairer sex also must be admiring him for drawing so much attention of so many people. His trades were always exciting. Never boring. They had many ups and downs. What he loved was drawing attention, Not really making money.
 
He got what he wanted. And he continues to get what he wants. It's a trap. But he does want Attention. Not money. This is where i saw Ed Seykota's theories working. Can you, Bubble, explain this to us why this person does what he does?
 
By posting these types of posts on TED, we are also getting something that we want!!Smile.  Actually for me TED is a nicest  place to exchange ideas with like minded people. And thanks to BM's TED, i know many more people in my life. Specially BM, M Kul, Bubble, Deepinsights, Kayals, Snehal, Mark, Chirag and Nitin and many more. I wanted to make friends with like minded people and TED provided the platform! Clap
 
Best wishes
 
JM


Edited by Janak.merchant1 - 13/Apr/2008 at 6:36pm
I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
IP IP Logged
Janak.merchant1
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: 14/Jan/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 364
Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 6:43pm
Originally posted by aloksahi1971

Janakji, My quest is not to look at the charts and trade at each spike it is to buy and hold after understanding the underlying basics.A few days back aperson introduced me to the fact that Fuel prices go up in the summer due to the driving season ,these knowledge I did not have as I always thougt that the cost of oil will go up in the winter for heating purpose.
 
Dear Mr. Alok Sahi,
 
Understanding the basics will take lots of time and effort on your part. Are you ready  for that? By keeping an open mind u can definitely learn. But many times what appears to be obvious to a novice trader is usually a trap by professionals. Be careful while speculating is what i can suggest. For others it wud make sense to learn investment concepts.
 
All these years it has made sense for me to read investment concepts. It takes much more time then what i had originally anticipated and forecasted!!!Cry So now i know that i m not good at forecasting.
 
Commodities trading is very risky. One of my frinds's brother is a sub broker for commodities trading and he has in past told me horror stories of his clients getting wiped off in a very short time. Their stop losses did not work when the market was in the low volume zone.
 
JM


Edited by Janak.merchant1 - 13/Apr/2008 at 6:49pm
I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
IP IP Logged
<< Prev Page  of 5 Next >>
Post Reply Post New Topic
Printable version Printable version

Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot create polls in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum



This page was generated in 0.078 seconds.
Bookmark this Page