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Vivek Sukhani
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   Posted: 06/Mar/2008 at 3:23pm |
I have a few questios:
1.Is high crude price not a significant risk when we are so majorly dependent upon imported crude.
2.Even though markets may bounce back, and I am not contesting for/against it, yet the leadership may shift quite dramatically. Am asking this in my capacity as an individual stock investor and not an investor in indices.
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ThinkDifferent
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Posted: 06/Mar/2008 at 3:36pm |
Edited by ThinkDifferent - 06/Mar/2008 at 3:37pm
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I am an Amateur in Stocks.
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basant
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Posted: 06/Mar/2008 at 3:46pm |
Unless you have an extraordinary theme stocks will either langish or decline unless the indices move up.
We have handled crude when it went up 5 times from US $ 20 to US $ 100 and I was by chance the person who had written about this on January 05, 2005. See this link. Mind you I have no knowledge about how these things work.
So if we could handle a 5 bagger in crude I think we can adjust to some upside from here also.
Originally posted by catchsudipto
Sir what about the petro-dollar? where will this huze sum of money ( sunami) flow in considering oil is at 104 per barrel. |
This one answers the problem of crude, higher the prices of crude higher the capacity of petrodoillar to help us overcome the crude shock!
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Janak.merchant1
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Posted: 06/Mar/2008 at 3:50pm |
Originally posted by basant
Indian Stocks – Time to aggressively load on!
GDP Growth could touch 10% - Our savings rate and investment rates are at closer to 32% -34% and backed by the recent changes in the budget should grow upwards from here. Assuming an FDI flow of 2% of GDP (US $ 20 bn) the economy’s potential capital formation works out to 36% over the next couple of years.
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Dear Basant,
Can u tell us from where we can get reliable figures of savings rate?
I did not pay attention in school as well as college due to family circumstances. So the only savings rate that i understand is bank saving a/c interest rate.
In reality my inflation rate is more than double the rate of our govt. So wud like to know the real figure of savings rate. I have my own doubts about this. Because in my circle actual savings rate is not more than 10%. In some cases it is less than 5&.
Best wishes to a wise fellow.
JM
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I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
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smartcat
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Posted: 06/Mar/2008 at 3:59pm |
Could there be any global circumstances under which foreign money keeps going out of the Indian markets for a long period of time (say 6 - 12 months)? US recession, mortgage losses weakening global financial giants etc?
While I do agree that it is a good time to load on, we might still find the markets at a lower level or remain range-bound with a downward bias. If one could make a rough guesstimate as to how long the markets will remain in this condition, one can invest the surplus cash over such a period.
Now, if the market shoots up before you manage to invest all the money, then great - go on a holiday, buy your wife some jewellery or treat yourself with a new car. If the market does not shoot up and remains like it is, you will be psychologically better off - since there is always some money to invest whenever the market goes down.
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Musketeer
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Posted: 06/Mar/2008 at 4:12pm |
Citibank has started shedding some of its flab.
But one thing to note is that some of these foreigners would be smart enough to keep some money invested in high-growth opportunities like India. Initially, they'll shake off the non-performing or slow-growth holdings they have.
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Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
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basant
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Posted: 06/Mar/2008 at 4:21pm |
| Can u tell us from where we can get reliable figures of savings rate? |
Bubble can answer this in a better way but savings rates are released by the Govt. RBI and through the Economic Survey.Broadly they are reliable because with a10% savings rate our GDP should be 2.5% which seems out of context.
| Could there be any global circumstances under which foreign money keeps going out of the Indian markets for a long period of time (say 6 - 12 months)? US recession, mortgage losses weakening global financial giants etc |
Where will the money go? It would not be put under the pillow. No one would like to buy Citi Bank and sell ICICI bank. For the moment the money is elusive and will come back.Money will chase assets and whether the assets are oil, gold, silver, copper or emerging markets equity it will move away from where the trouble is and get into areas that are relatively insulated.
Did we not see how the so called smart money managers put in more then US $ 100 bn in a company that was selling hope. When the damm thing listed they do not want it now. Even banks with balance sheet of Rs 30,000 crores lost 45 days of profit in this flipping game.
Most of the MF managers are sitting and waiting for the sensex to move up but the moment someone makes the first move others will rush in to buy. There could be a buyers panic.
| While I do agree that it is a good time to load on, we might still find the markets at a lower level or remain range-bound with a downward bias. If one could make a rough guesstimate as to how long the markets will remain in this condition, one can invest the surplus cash over such a period. |
About stocks drifting downwards you are right we may get it lower but we buy stocks because we see that they are attractive and we sell stocks because they become expensive not because their price could move down or up.
Didn't someone say that trying to catch the bottom gets you a handful of sh*t!!!
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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ThinkDifferent
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Posted: 06/Mar/2008 at 4:22pm |
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Basant-Sir,
This leads us to the most important question of all. Is it a good time to leverage?
I think You have said in other threads that one can leverage during
some special circumstances. Is this one such special situation
where one can take a personal loan to buy shares?
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I am an Amateur in Stocks.
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