Expect conservative returns(35%) from TED XI.

I think Airtel story is not over by any stretch of imagination. Even at their current size they are growing much faster than Axis.  Also retail, DTH and broadband for that matter still have to play out. With number of competitors, Axis is just another private bank while Airtel is the No 1 company in its space and a classy one at that.

I know they are on bad books with the minister but remember, he is there for another 1 1/2 years and Airtel will be there for much longer.

Franchise they have built is amazing. I have all my phones and broadband with Airtel. I have never experienced better service in my life. You file a complaint and if you are outside your home, you will have to rush back because someone from Airtel is already waiting for you.

There was a discussion on TV as to how Number portability is going to be harmful to Airtel. Having shifted from reliance to airtel, I can tell you no self respecting person will shift from Airtel as reliance is not only cheap but very very annoying as well. Infact if CDMA to GSM will be possible, reliance is going to lose more customers to airtel than the other way around.

Even from growth perspective, I think Airtel will score over Axis atleast for some more years.

Luke


Edited by luke123 - 14/Nov/2007 at 3:43pm

Originally posted by furkanalam China Mobile , the biggest telecom company of China....now has a market cap of $400 billion.Its also listed in NYSE. So dont you think that Bharti at $50billion has huge headroom.Because as far as i know India is supposed to be the next big thing after China and considering the population of India, Indian telecom operators have a lot more to gain from india.....   So i think long term Bharti is an excellent stock to hold.   Basant please do let me know your views on this.

Originally posted by basant   Chinese are valuing stocks for 2012 earnings. So we need to discount that. If some one says that SBI should have a marketcap of ICBC will we agree.   I have mentioned this before that I have a bad habit of exiting early but US $ 100 bn is my best case scenario before Bharti becomes a HUL.   Incremental growth from these levels will come at the cost of PE contraction. I am not worrried about Govt. lobbying etc Mittal is not a child he can manage himself and Anil is not the prime minister of india so do not get carried away by these short term abberations after all someone wil go to the Supreme court or maybe Karat will get involved in politics anything can happen because people like the situation are fluid!!!   Dish has  a mkt cap of US$ 700mn which is 1.5% of Bharti's maarket cap if you are bullish on DTH buy the pure listed player. If Bharti's price can move on DTH then DISH Tv will become a 20 bagger!!!   At this moment the whole country is into telecom stocks but the real time to buy themwas when they were unpopular in 2003. But I do not expect Bharti to tank but I am betting on a relative outperformance from Axis bank.

Bharti added 2.03 m connections last month. Approx 25 m this year. That tranlates to on 4000 ARPU/YR  and 2000/user profit to 5000cr a year profit or atleast 50,000cr mcap.
I don't think they will stop at 100b. I think it will be more like 250-300b. May not happen in 2 years but will happen in 4-5 years max. 

Though only time will tell but I think Airtel is much better story than Axis even at 45b$ mcap.  I will bet even at 45b, will grow much faster than 9b$ axis.
I could have agreed with you on the growth front if you had somebody smaller but at 9b$, Axis is unlikely to beat bharti. Imagine 1 in 5 Indians will use Bharti (I am not counting fixed lines or broadband) eventually where as 1/100 will use Axis(maybe) and will not make as much money for Axis as they will for Bharti.

BTW, I do think Dish will be 10 bagger if not a 20 bagger.

let us see who is right on this one. But I am completely convinced Bharti is a better bet than Axis for next few years at least.

Luke






Edited by luke123 - 15/Nov/2007 at 4:47pm