I disagree with most of the thoughts mentioned in your Sensex @ 2010 article.
we need to play safely with caution because: a) There are no such sure shot bargains (multibaggers) available |
How can you say that for sure? In your previous posts, you have mentioned that multibaggers can be found in under-owned/under-researched sectors/stocks (Eg: real estate in 2006, retail in 2002 - 2005).
So it doesn't matter if index is at 3000 or 18,000. There are sectors/stocks that are still under the radar. I personally feel there are multi-baggers in oil & gas sector (Exploration & Production) while others feel that the next sector to go boom would be Education and small private sector banks.
If at all there are these multibagers come with associated risk because something that could not have performed for 5 years will find it extremely difficult to justify its market cap expansion in the next 12-24 months. |
When it comes to multi-baggers, the associated risks remain the same whether it is 2003 (Sensex @ 3000) or 2007 (sensex @ 18,000). Remember that real estate stocks were listed for years - they suddenly didn't make an appearance in 2006.
To my cricketing analogy someone mentioned that investing is not a Twenty – 20 but a Test Match. To that my argument is that we can always play a second innings as long as we do not “retire hurt” in the first innings.
“Have you become fearful?” Is a question that I face each day and my answer is “Yes, I have. I am extremely fearful to stocks that do not have a favorable risk reward” and if we can find one there is no one that stops us from selling our stable stocks into the more adventurous ones.
In this fierce bull market investors should end their greed themselves because otherwise Mr. Market will end both the investor and his greed – together. |
This is good advice for only those who got in at 2003 and have made enough money to lead a comfortable life for the rest of their lives. But what about those who just earned their first salary this month?
Since I got in at 2001 and have a decent sized portfolio, I am not investing fresh money in the markets right now. But when my younger brother asks for suggestions, I recommend that he invest in a set of stocks even now. This doesn't make me a hypocrite because each individual investor's financial situation is different.
Anyway, I personally don't chase multi-baggers. I look at the 'big picture' and they end up being multi-baggers eventually.