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Identifying Multibaggers
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Identifying Multibaggers
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Quote Learner Replybullet Posted: 07/Oct/2007 at 4:49pm
Basant ji Your words of caution are really important for investors, as I discovered in last few months reading the wealth of ideas on this site. For converting this into practice, I request the experienced members of TED to specifically give their views on TED XI stocks on how to play them now.
 
As I was in the midst of coming out of a Mungeri style to a rational style of investing, it leaves me little confused as to the fresh entry points into TED XI stocks. Thanks.
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 07/Oct/2007 at 4:53pm
Take a small exposure (may be 30%) to TED XI bcoz if you wait and the market goes up, you lose and if it goes down you can always increase your exposure to stocks.
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 07/Oct/2007 at 5:01pm
historically indian mkts have corrected whenever the sensex pe has touched 20 times one yr forward so we are almost there, but these have all been corrections with the mkts bouncing back after touching 13-14 times pe.basant at this stage do you see signs of IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE.i feel we will one day break that 20 pe barrier and move into the 25-30 pe range and at a certain stage earnings will fail to catch up ,earnings will be 10-15% over an extended period of time and thats when the final nail in the coffin shall be hammered in.so at this stage caution is the key, and earnings have to be seen extremely carefully for signs of sustainability of  current growth rates.
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 07/Oct/2007 at 5:06pm
Excellent write-up Basantji, once again ClapClap
 
My sense is :
- No particular sector constitutes more than 20% of Sensex weightage. So a slowdown in one (for eg. IT) can be offset by another.
 
- India saves 10 lakh crore a year, even if some portion of it comes to market, Sensex will be on fire.
 
- We need to hold stocks which are well-researched (institutional broking research) bcoz FII's will buy that stocks only. I wont be surprised if Pantaloon reaches 1500 by 2010 end. So Peter Lynch Lynch saying that more the institutional coverage less the potential for the stock to outperform may not be true.
 
I second Chris Wood Sensex target of 40000. (For those who dont know Chris Wood was the one who said US Housing market is in trouble in Oct,2005)
 
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 07/Oct/2007 at 5:29pm

I disagree with most of the thoughts mentioned in your Sensex @ 2010 article.

we need to play safely with caution because:
a)      There are no such sure shot bargains (multibaggers) available

How can you say that for sure? In your previous posts, you have mentioned that multibaggers can be found in under-owned/under-researched sectors/stocks (Eg: real estate in 2006, retail in 2002 - 2005).
 
So it doesn't matter if index is at 3000 or 18,000. There are sectors/stocks that are still under the radar. I personally feel there are multi-baggers in oil & gas sector (Exploration & Production) while others feel that the next sector to go boom would be Education and small private sector banks.
 
If at all there are these multibagers come with associated risk because something that could not have performed for 5 years will find it extremely difficult to justify its market cap expansion in the next 12-24 months.
 
When it comes to multi-baggers, the associated risks remain the same whether it is 2003 (Sensex @ 3000) or 2007 (sensex @ 18,000). Remember that real estate stocks were listed for years - they suddenly didn't make an appearance in 2006.
 
To my cricketing analogy someone mentioned that investing is not a Twenty – 20 but a Test Match. To that my argument is that we can always play a second innings as long as we do not “retire hurt” in the first innings.
 
“Have you become fearful?”  Is a question that I face each day and my answer is “Yes, I have. I am extremely fearful to stocks that do not have a favorable risk reward” and if we can find one there is no one that stops us from selling our stable stocks into the more adventurous ones.
 
In this fierce bull market investors should end their greed themselves because otherwise Mr. Market will end both the investor and his greed – together.
 
This is good advice for only those who got in at 2003 and have made enough  money to lead a comfortable life for the rest of their lives. But what about those who just earned their first salary this month?
 
Since I got in at 2001 and have a decent sized portfolio, I am not investing fresh money in the markets right now. But when my younger brother asks for suggestions, I recommend that he invest in a set of stocks even now. This doesn't make me a hypocrite because each individual investor's financial situation is different.
 
Anyway, I personally don't chase multi-baggers. I look at the 'big picture' and they end up being multi-baggers eventually.
 
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Quote SORUB Replybullet Posted: 07/Oct/2007 at 5:37pm
if we stick with our company and keeping things mirco than marco can help i guess. i usually invest in more of a sip/vca method.but it does not make "big" money. basantji dont u think we can get a value or growth stock even in a 60k market? some stock goes down even if market goes up.eg)dish t.v which is a good buy at 70 than in 100
K.I.S.S(keep it simple silly) is the most easy management formula i ever came across!!! but it is very hard to follow!!!
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Quote sajanvm Replybullet Posted: 07/Oct/2007 at 7:46pm

One "strategy" that I have used when I feel there's too much optimism around is to look at my holdings and ask whether I would buy any of my current holdings (based on valuations) if they were to correct 20-30%. If not, then the answer becomes very clear and I sell.  This helps me clearly identify stocks where risk-reward is still favourable.

Caveat: I went wrong with McDowell using the above strategy and sold out my largest holding at 800 odd. But I believe the LOGIC is right and hence I continue to follow it.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/Oct/2007 at 7:58pm

Good to see those comments I expected a mixed thought and it helps me in articulating my views. Let me repeat:

 

1) There will be one JaiCorp and one Unitech every year since there are 6000 listed stocks n BSE. But how many have benefitted from such stocks - financially.

 

2) I still feel that I we have not seen the best of the index. There is no euphoria, people are cautious. Index may double or triple from here but such a doubling will come at increased risk (PE expansion).

 

3) Unfortunately the market does not care about anyone whether he got in in 2001 or 2003 or 2007 or is just getting ready for his first punch tomorrow morning. People who did not get in in 2003 were wrong or maybe too young but unfortunately the clock does not turn backwards. We have to see forward.

 

4) Assuming that we were turned back into 2005 how much percentage of our portfolio would you have invetsed in a Jai Corp? Work out the returns with the intended percentage allocation.

 

5) I have chosen 2010 because I cannot see for more then 3 years. Sometimes it is just academic to talk about 2025.Also it is my deadline year.

 

6) When I talk of multibaggers I mean 5 times and above, 2 or 3 are not multibaggers but doublers or triplers!

 

7) Finally these thoughts are mine because I intend to be in stocks for more then 100% of my money (including leverage) whether the index is at 40k or back to 10k.

 

8) Also these opinions could change tomorrow as and when I see a multibagger with minimum downside and oportunity cost.(free hit). In 2003 there were no opportunity costs because the whole market was in the doldrums. My opportunity cost is the index returns or the return that HDFC bank creates year after year – 30%.

 
Please go through this article which I wrote in May 2005. "28,000 for the Index. Well-said Rakesh but…" .
 
 


Edited by basant - 07/Oct/2007 at 8:02pm
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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