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Our stocks. Buy hold or sell - The help ourselves Board
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Our stocks. Buy hold or sell - The help ourselves Board
Message Icon Topic: Reliance Power or Muscle Power? Post Reply Post New Topic
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tigershark
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 22/Jan/2008 at 6:07am
many poeple have found a new way of not applying for the issue even after applying for it by issuing stop payment notices to their respective bankers sighting insufficient funds in their accounts!
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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nitin_jagtap
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Quote nitin_jagtap Replybullet Posted: 22/Jan/2008 at 7:48am
Some cant do it as the cheques have been cleared..they would all hope they dont get allotment.

Edited by nitin_jagtap - 22/Jan/2008 at 7:49am
Warm REgards
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Mohan
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Quote Mohan Replybullet Posted: 23/Jan/2008 at 8:45am
Allotment to sabhiko milenga. thoda, thoda...

Pehle to dono haath se pakadne bhaag rahe the.....
Abhi, Jaan chudane ko......

I read an article on rediff.com that reminds me of past ocassions when new investors enter the market and get slaughtered.

This is where a forum like TED becomes important for self - help.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Shocking, very shocking. Nobody predicted such a severe slide," said a woebegone Suresh Mehta, a small investor, while talking about the crash of Sensex.

A middle-aged man with heart ailment, he said he "can't take it any more." "Whatever I earned in the last two years, I have lost in the last four days. I will sit at home for six months. How depressing to see that people were selling Reliance Petroleum [Get Quote] even below Rs130. I had bought it at Rs 270. I can't do business like this."

Gujaratis, the community that boasts of the largest number of investors in the stock market, are witnessing extraordinary financial turmoil with many families going bankrupt overnight, literally.

In Ahmedabad and Mumbai, much family-talk veers around 'share prices.' A Gujarati broker, from Ghatkopar in suburban Mumbai, told rediff.com, "In the last two-three days, a record number of people have gone bankrupt. All the investors' portfolios stand to lose a minimum 30 per cent."

Investors are speechless to see that the stocks that were not even available for more than Rs 500 are today available for Rs 400 and yet there are few buyers.

A stock broker in South Mumbai said he invested about Rs 30 lakh (Rs 3 million) in Reliance Industries [Get Quote] in the last three years. The last time, he bought RIL shares at the rate of Rs 3,200. "Right now, while talking to you, my shares are selling at Rs 2,327. I am doomed," he said, sitting in front of his trading terminal.

Another broker who is plays in the derivatives market said: "This is terrible (Bau kharab thayu). We were hopeful. I was far too positive. Actually, many of us discounted India's future in 2009 and 2010. But, today, we have learnt a lesson. No stock exchange or no market in India will remain unaffected by America."

He was angry and cursed two American financial majors who posted huge losses recently.

A top investor who is closely connected to one of the stock exchanges told rediff.com, "The Indian market was over-heated. The fundamentals didn't justify the share prices. Anything in extreme is bad. I am going to seek withdrawal of my money in Reliance Power."

"As it happens in all such crises, FIIs have sold their stocks and have pocketed profits, while Indian mutual funds and investors are left with cheap stock. The government and the controller of stock exchanges are helpless because it's a free market," he added.

Nimesh Kampani, chairman, JM Financial [Get Quote], said: "I don't think there is any problem with the fundamentals; this is a technical fault due to American market."

However, most investors agree that the market meltdown was not because of some scam or a policy blunder. It is believed that the American markets affected the Asian market and Indian markets were caught in this storm.

Some analysts said that the bourses suffered because of a cash crisis faced by some big fish in the market. To some extent the market was facing a shortage of funds following the Future Capital and the Reliance Power IPOs, said Mehta.

When some brokers who were facing a cash crisis and could not meet margin calls on time as the pressure from stock exchanges began to rise and the bourses started off-loading shares held as security. Margin calls come about when bourses instruct brokers to pay margins when there is a huge fall in stock prices.

A jeweler turned stock-investor says: "We are astounded. When we (the country) have 9% growth, when Indian companies are still doing good businesses and promise robust dividends, why should I not be hopeful? Why should the American sub-prime crisis make me so vulnerable? I really do not understand. I have no idea what lies in the future."

Mehta, meanwhile, said: "On second thoughts, I feel we panicked. Indeed, we crashed in panic."




Source : rediff.com

 





Edited by Mohan - 23/Jan/2008 at 9:20am
Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
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Buffet
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Quote Buffet Replybullet Posted: 23/Jan/2008 at 11:01am
I dont understand the psychology behind these "so called investors" who buy stocks when prices are going up and selling when it falls. How they will ever make profit?
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gcpradhan1
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Quote gcpradhan1 Replybullet Posted: 24/Jan/2008 at 12:06pm
What a good decision I took by not applying to Reliance Power. Since the beginning I was somehow skeptical about this IPO , but for a while was thinking that what's the problem in getting some quick bucks. But always TED and it's postings were pulling me back from applying to the IPO and the 4 days of offer just went while finializing ! And now this is the situation !! TED is really a good place for learning !!
Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years - Buffet
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chic_1978
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Quote chic_1978 Replybullet Posted: 24/Jan/2008 at 12:47pm
hey guys
check this, i got an email
 
All ur doubt will be cleared……..read below with patience.
 
=========================

Business: R POWER.


The company claims that it will be developing power generation projects of 28200 MW over the next decade.

According to the IPO RHP, some of the projects that it will be developing are:

Rosa-I (to be commissioned in March 2010) - 600 MW - Coal based.
Butibori (to be commissioned in June 2010) - 300 MW - Coal based.
Rosa-II (to be commissioned in September 2010) - 600 MW - Coal based.
Shahpur Gas (to be commissioned in March 2011) - 2800 MW - Gas based.
Shahpur Coal (to be commissioned in December 2011) - 1200 MW - Coal based.
Dadri (to be commissioned in March 2013) - 7480 MW - Gas based.
Krishnapatnam (to be commissioned in September 2013) - 4000 MW - Coal based.
Urthing Sobla (to be commissioned in March 2014) - 400 MW - Hydropower based.
Tato II (to be commissioned in March 2014) - 700 MW - Hydropower based.
MP Power (to be commissioned in July 2014) - 3960 MW - Coal based.
Siyom (to be commissioned in March 2015) - 1000 MW - Hydropower based.
Kalai II (to be commissioned in March 2016) - 1200 MW - Hydropower based.
Sasan (to be commissioned in April 2016) - 3960 MW - Coal based.

If

everything goes as planned, capacity of Reliance Power at end of each year till 2016 will be:

2008: 0 MW.
2009: 0 MW.
2010: 1500 MW.
2011: 5500 MW.
2012: 5500 MW.
2013: 16980 MW.
2014: 22040 MW.
2015: 23040 MW.
2016: 28200 MW.

=======================================

Other Similar Companies:


I can think of two companies in the power generation sector that Reliance Power can be compared with:

NTPC and Tata Power.

NTPC has current capacity of 28000 MW and has target to achieve 66000 MW by 2017. (
See this thread on NTPC).

Tata Power has current capacity of 2300 MW.
It will be adding 10000 MW of capacity more by 2012. Thus, it will have a capacity of around 12300 MW by 2012 end.
The additions will all be coal based.
-Mundra Ultra Mega Power Project -4000 MW.
-Power plants in Maharastra - 3000 MW.
-Captive power plants for Tata Steel - 2000 MW
-Maithon Power Plant at Jharkhand - 1000 MW.

Tata Power also has other smaller business and also wants to
enter shipping and logistics . Besides that Tata Power has investments valued at Rs 400+ per share of Tata Power. This works out to be Rs 10000 crore..

Around 2012 - 2013, both Tata Power is expected to have similar capacity as Reliance Power.

The interesting thing is at current price of Rs 1457, Tata Power is valued at just Rs 30000 crore. Remove Rs 10000 crore of investments and you can have it only for Rs 20000 crore.

At Rs 900, Reliance Power will have market value of 200000 crores....6.67 times that of Tata Power. .

========================================

Financials:


With 2300 MW capacity, Tata Power made standalone profit of Rs 700 crore in FY 2007.

With 28000 MW capacity, NTPC made standalone profit of Rs 6900 crore in FY 2007.

Lets assume Reliance Power turns out to be much more efficient than these two companies. Add to that increased power rates.

With 28200 capacity, assume Reliance Power makes Rs 15000 crore of net profit in 2016-2017. Power companies are considered as utilities and worldwide trade at 10-15 times their earnings.

Lets assume 15 times ratio for Reliance Power in 2016.

What will be its market value?

15000 X 15 = Rs 225000 crore or Rs 995 per share.

This is an optimistic view:
-there will be no further equity dilution till 2016.
-assuming nearly twice as much efficiency as NTPC.
-that all projects will be completed before 2016 end.
-the company would have paid back all debt by then and interest costs would be in similar range as NTPC.

(NTPC already has established 28000 MW capacity and comparatively much lesser interest costs. (NTPC's P&L account states Rs 1800 interest cost for FY 2007).

So what about the debt?

The RHP mentions estimated cost of six projects Rosa I, Rosa II, Butibori, Sasan, Shahpur Coal, Urthing Sobla as Rs 30000 crore+.

Analysts estimate that
Reliance Power will need Rs 70000 crore of debt to finance its projects which are estimated to cost 100000 crore+.

Rs 70000 crore of debt is not going to come at 2% interest rate. Even a 6% interest would mean an annual interest cost of Rs 4200 crore. Only in 2013, the company's capacity will cross 10000 MW. Thus, I do not expect any major debt repayment before 2014. If things don't go as planned, the debt burden will make a mockery of the balance sheet.

With Rs 12000 crore raised in equity and Rs 70000 crore of debt, these whole business will become a high-risk venture.

Any unforeseen delay/derailment of plans may create major problems for this company.

========================================

Reliance Power - The Overlooked Fact:

Is Reliance Power just "Reliance Power"?

No.

It is actually "Reliance Power Limited" - a limited company.

 So what does this mean for Reliance Power Limited?

It means if in the rare case, the calculations of the management go wrong and the company somehow goes to insolvency, none of the shareholders will lose anything expect the value of the shares.

If you are a share holder of Reliance Power and it goes into insolvency (unable to pay back debts), what do you stand to lose?

Rs 430 per share.

Lot of money....right?

What does Anil Ambani's AAA Project or REL lose?

Both of them had got their 45% (post-IPO) stake for Rs 1000 crore each. Plus they will each subscribe to 1.6 crore shares each at Rs 450 in the IPO......which works out to be Rs 720 crore.

Thus, AAA Project will be getting 101.6 crore shares of Reliance Power for Rs 1720 crore and REL will be getting 101.6 crore shares of Reliance Power for Rs 1720 crore.

Little less than Rs 17 per share.

This is what both the promoters are risking in this project....Rs 17 per share
; while investors will be risking Rs 450 per share
.

This is exactly the reason why Reliance Power was created.

First, by contributing just Rs 1720 crore each to Reliance Power, the promoters have shifted all risk to investors.

Second, by getting 45% stake (in REL's projects) to AAA Project for a mere Rs 1000 crore, AAA Projects (and Anil Ambani) have created wealth out of thin air.

Anil Ambani's Rs 1000 crore investment will be worth Rs 100000 crore when Reliance Power lists at Rs 900.

If the gamble works, the promoters (holding 90% stake in Reliance Power) will be worth billions of dollars.

If the gamble doesn't work, the promoters will lose Rs 1720 crore each and investors will lose Rs 10000+ crore which they will be paying for a mere 10% stake in Reliance Power.

What a way to create wealth...!!!....I don't have words to describe the brilliance of Anil Ambani's plans... .

========================================

First, other companies are much cheaper.


Why should I keep a company valued at Rs 200000 crore -

when another company (with similar capacity by 2013) is available at Rs 30000 crore with much smaller debt burden and Rs 10000 crore worth of investments............referring to Tata Power.

If Reliance Power (at Rs 900) is available for Rs 200000 crore, why not buy NTPC for a similar price ......Rs 225000 crore. NTPC plans to have a capacity of 66000 MW in 2017, while Reliance Power will have 28200 MW capacity in 2016.

Second, the risk is higher than other existing companies.


With marginally cash flows for next 5 years and Rs 70000+ crore of debt, the risk for Reliance Power is high. Tata Power and NTPC have existing cash flows to handle expansions.....Reliance Power does not.

Third and the biggest factor is....the valuation of the company doesn't make much sense.


Why should Reliance Power be valued at Rs 200000 crore, when in highly optimistic scenario, it will not make more than Rs 15000 crore of profit in 2016? Even if it touches that figure of Rs 15000 crore, its market value in 2016 will not be much more than 225000-300000 crore. (if given a 15-20 times multiple).

A fixed deposit will make more money than that in 8 years.....and that too without any risk.

Also, I got the optimistic Rs 15000 crore figure by assuming two times margins as NTPC.

The fact is..... at least till 2014, Reliance Power will still be carrying most of its Rs 70000 crore debt and its interest costs will squeeze margins to a large extent.


happy & wise investing
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gcpradhan1
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Quote gcpradhan1 Replybullet Posted: 24/Jan/2008 at 5:49pm
Reliance Power seeks SEBI nod for early allotment to QIBs

At a time when liquidity is of primary importance Reliance Power has proposed to make available $10 billion to institutional investors for the secondary market. According to a source, the company has written a letter to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) on Wednesday to allow them to make an early allotment of equity shares to qualified institutional buyers (QIBs). If allowed, the move will see refunds of over Rs 40,000 crore making its way to other investment avenues.
 
It seems MA is really a worried person now a days !!! Wanted to fool investor, but Mr. Market fool him..
Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years - Buffet
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furkanalam
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Quote furkanalam Replybullet Posted: 24/Jan/2008 at 6:17pm
Nice post chic....
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