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deepinsight
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Quote deepinsight Replybullet Topic: Expensive stocks-What to do with them?
    Posted: 07/May/2007 at 9:20pm

Basantjee & the groups: Would like to have your view and a discussion started on the following point of overvaluation.

As the companies we invest in get recognized it appreciates in prices such that it becomes relatively expensive –either via PE-rerating or simply because of getting positively identified as high potential e.g TV18, nucleus, educomp etc.

As long term holders it’s akin to instant gratification followed by months of potential underperformance. Where the stock is priced for perfection and a small hiccup can create huge volatility or capital loss. We may have bought at reasonable prices so we are happy to hold but most likely we are more fearful (rightfully) of buying at expensive multiples. The end result is that we end up with a concentrated portfolio of good companies which are all expensive.

We cannot sell because we are in it for the long term.

We cannot buy as the stock is trading expensive.

How does one reconcile this dynamic of portfolio overvaluation with long term goal of investing in multi-baggers?

"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 07/May/2007 at 9:30pm

How does one reconcile this dynamic of portfolio overvaluation with long term goal of investing in multi-baggers?

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Anticipate and recognise change early....thats what Samir Arora says...
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/May/2007 at 9:33pm
You have put this up as a wonderful area of discussion. I am really bothered by this and have learnt that it is always best to hold concentrated portfolios and that frequent portfolio rebalancing should not be done.
 
Also I suffer from a rather acute problem. All this while when NW18 was not performing I used to add and then break my head as to when will value be discovered but no sooner has it risen the gains have kind of taken away the excitement because it is no longer value and once it gets up a bit more from here it will be a pur high growth company - the cream getting taken off the milk. 
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/May/2007 at 9:38pm
Devesh makes an important point. the idea is to look for the better stock. For example I have indicated in thsi forum that last year I switched out of Trent at Rs 890 and bought Tv18 at Rs 610 (predemerger). Now there was nothing wrong in Trent but just that Tv18 looked better.
 
 
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deepinsight
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Quote deepinsight Replybullet Posted: 07/May/2007 at 9:44pm
Originally posted by basant

You have put this up as a wonderful area of discussion. I am really bothered by this and have learnt that it is always best to hold concentrated portfolios and that frequent portfolio rebalancing should not be done.
 
Also I suffer from a rather acute problem. All this while when NW18 was not performing I used to add and then break my head as to when will value be discovered but no sooner has it risen the gains have kind of taken away the excitement because it is no longer value and once it gets up a bit more from here it will be a pur high growth company - the cream getting taken off the milk. 
 
Exactly - while NW18 was cheap and held the potential it was great because we could invest our surplus cash. Then while we all excited by the 40% rise - its difficult to make a case of investing solid amounts at this rate - making our whole portfolio expensive - and with difficulty to do much.
"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet
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deepinsight
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Quote deepinsight Replybullet Posted: 07/May/2007 at 9:46pm
Originally posted by basant

Devesh makes an important point. the idea is to look for the better stock. For example I have indicated in thsi forum that last year I switched out of Trent at Rs 890 and bought Tv18 at Rs 610 (predemerger). Now there was nothing wrong in Trent but just that Tv18 looked better.
 
 
 
We do not find high conviction stories every month or even quarter. So while the argument is correct it basically puts one in a bind.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/May/2007 at 9:46pm
But that is why we could keep looking at ideas two in an year is good enough and we do get two in a year.
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deepinsight
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Quote deepinsight Replybullet Posted: 07/May/2007 at 9:48pm
Originally posted by basant

But that is why we could keep looking at ideas two in an year is good enough and we do get two in a year.
 
Then those two will also become expensive. - It does not take away the issue of over valuation in good companies - which one hopes is the sole constituenst of our portfolio.
 
Should one simply resign one self to holding expensive stocks?
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