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investor
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Quote investor Replybullet Topic: The concept of "Free" shares.
    Posted: 21/Sep/2006 at 1:52pm
Basant,

The concept of having such "free" shares is one of the various successful types of investing, many people follow it. If you are not a beleiver in the
concept of partial profits booking(as am i, after all, how can you get multibaggers if you keep on booking partial profits!!) then it may not make
 sense, but  i know a lot of my friends who follow this model - take out your inital capital and hold on to the rest for life!

One category of investors for which this may seem quite useful is those who
dont have the temperament or patience to hold on long term or who panick
on seeing paper profts getting lost in crashes.... since ur holding cost is zero
for these shares, u dont have to worry any time.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 21/Sep/2006 at 2:56pm

I think that the biggest misnomer that surrounds our market is "free shares". As I wrote else where on the forum it makes an investor do two contradictory things hold (bullish) and sell (bearish). Many times partial profit booking is done to reduce the portfolio concentration if a stock has run up a bit. But this is hardly the reason why most of the non institutional investors do a a partial profit booking.

I would rather sell out my entire stake if something is wrong with the company rather then keep a bit of my original quantity thinking them to be free.

 

If you try and analyze why we do that partial profit booking you would get just one answer. Most of us get nervous when one stock runs up like crazy and then to protect what we have made we try in and lock in the gains by a partial profit booking.

 

Suppose an investor has bought a stock for Rs 50 and it runs to Rs 100 he books partial profit and keeps the balance shares for free. Invariably he would lose the major chunk of his original holding. While after a decade he could be happy with the kind of wealth the balance has created what he is missing out on is how much wealth could have been created had he stuck on with the whole thing.

 

Finally the concept of “booking profits and keeping the free shares” is a farce. You cannot book profits and keep the balance shares for free. This is because the profit that you have made has been utilized to bring down the cost of the shares (free shares) that you actually hold. I find it really confusing.

 

Some big names in India also say about booking a certain percentage of profits and then keeping the rest. I think all this originates from lack of conviction rather then investing strategies as such.



Edited by basant - 21/Sep/2006 at 2:58pm
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Quote investor Replybullet Posted: 21/Sep/2006 at 5:20pm
Its not always that you end up booking partial profits(For that to happen, you would need atleast a 2 bagger, and anything more than that becomes
your so-called partial profits). What people do is selloff enough as many shares as required to get back your full initial investment, and the rest they continue holding on as "free". (So you would need a minimum of doubling of your investment).

So its not necessarily that they book profits - their current books could be
zero gains, but what they acheive is generating this so-called free shares
in their portfolio, and so they can hold on it without worrying even it crashes 50% in a day. They dont create any wealth in short-term, but rather use this as a oppurtunity for long term investment. Like i said, i also
dont agree with or use this method, but its mainly used by people who
cannot face crashes or who dont have patience to hold on to stocks for long term in the fear of losing their profits/capital.

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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 21/Sep/2006 at 5:38pm
but what they acheive is generating this so-called free shares
in their portfolio, and so they can hold on it without worrying even it crashes 50% in a day
_____________________________________________________________
 
This is just a point of mental strength. Normally if you would think of your purchase price being of no relevant value the moment the trade is executed how can you be worried whether the shares are free or bought at two times the current market price.
__________________________________________________________
1) It makes an investor do two contradictory things hold (bullish) and sell (bearish). Many times partial profit booking is done to reduce the portfolio concentration if a stock has run up a bit
 
2) Most of us get nervous when one stock runs up like crazy and then to protect what we have made we try in and lock in the gains by a partial profit booking.
 
3) You cannot book profits and keep the balance shares for free. This is because the profit that you have made has been utilized to bring down the cost of the shares (free shares) that you actually hold.
 
___________________________________________________________
 
In all the great Investment books that I have read I have never found anyone practicing this startegy. Can't be that they missed out on this piece.
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 21/Sep/2006 at 5:53pm
Basantjee
 
Your view is fully appreciated.
 
Now, consider a scenario where, an investor buys 1000 shares at Rs. 50, it has value in it to multiply (over next 3-4 years). Due to bullish phase in the market, it goes up to Rs. 250 in a span of 10/12 months. What has happened is that due to irrational exuberance, market has discounted next 3 years growth. If that person sells quantity of 200 to take out his capital either to invest into other value buy or may be to put in bonds/FD (could be a part of asset re-allcoation excercise). Let's not call the balance as "free", let us not call this trying to time the market to re-enter the same stock (which is not always possible anyway) 
 
"Rich Dad Poor Dad" author has written something on similar lines, if I'm not wrong. 


Edited by kulman - 21/Sep/2006 at 6:05pm
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 21/Sep/2006 at 6:08pm
Basant I disagree with you. Basant, you need to make exits as well to make actual profits. Also, there always remain a dilemna whether s tock is over-valued or not. Its not a matter of conviction. Its a matter of being rational. If you have tripled your investment, you can make an exot from 1/3 of your holding and rest easy. I have been applying this startegy and have been quite satisfied with this approach. Only 1 thing, at times not only try to make your cost 0 but also try to make it negative, by taking money out in excess of what you have invested.Equites is more a game of emotions than valuation and this is a wonderful way of keeping yourself easy while trading.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 21/Sep/2006 at 6:09pm
Due to bullish phase in the market, it goes up to Rs. 250 in a span of 10/12 months. What has happened is that due to irrational exuberance, market has discounted next 3 years growth. If that person sells quantity of 200 to take out his capital 
____________________________________________________________
 
Normally thius person should sell out in full. I am not talking on hindsight biasness but if he does not and let us say the price falls back to Rs 50. then what does he lose:
 
With partial profit booking: 800x 200 = Rs 160,000
 
Without partial profit booking : 1000 x 200 = Rs 200,000
 
Now his capital at the top was Rs 250,000 (Rs 250 x 1000).
 
Thus by getting into a partial profit booking he has lost 64% of his notional capital
By staying along he has lost 80% of his capital.
 
I have seen that partial profit booking makes a man complacent he thinks "yeh toh free ka hai" whereas it is not free. If we follow the complete sell off method we would have sold out at Rs 200 only or maybe at Rs 220 but the gains would have been stronger and durable.
 
Basically it all boild down to how well can we analyse the company. maybe this company could go to Rs 500 after a pause and through the partial profit booking method we are playing to that just that the "free" concept makes one feel a bit stronger mentally.
 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 21/Sep/2006 at 6:18pm
But there is one place where I agree with you... I think this strategy is to be applied when an investor is in dilemna. Otherwise he can jolly well continue to hold or add more and more to his position, if he is feeling satisfied with his company. Its not like of you have made 11 p.c. on your portfolio you should sell 90 p.c. of your stockand stay easy. If done in practise, this can be learnt, although its not possible after making how much you should go in for freeing your shares. So, in a nutshell, until and unless you are in a dilemma , dont partially book your profits. And when you are sure that your stock is over-valued dont keep a single share for the sake of having it free.
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