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Identifying Multibaggers
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samirarora
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Quote samirarora Replybullet Topic: Nokia 2012- A case in point
    Posted: 02/May/2012 at 2:56pm
Nokia was world no. 1 for several years before its recently been toppled by samsung and also apple is ruling the world now.
 
Nokia stock price on NYSE has plummeted and i thought if i were an investor abroad, would it be one of those times where one would stock up on NOKIA (finlands largest company) and the largest selling mobile phone company at this time. Is it one of those classic times that one reads in books?
 
Thought i would throw this open to the forum as i would like to hear opinions and see how we predict would happen to nokia and is it a future multibagger when better times come.
 
Its stock price on google finance is $3.60 and total market cap is under 16 billion dollars compared to 500 billion+ of apple.
 
So, should an investor be looking at Nokia because its now fallen on bad times but is an otherwise top notch company (or is it heading for bankruptcy like GM , kodak etc).
 
Basantji, i hope you will participate.
Best wishes,Samir.
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Kautilya
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Quote Kautilya Replybullet Posted: 02/May/2012 at 3:08pm
The problem with Nokia is NOT temporary and short term in nature. They have lost their competative edge. As a investor I would not buy them. Another example is Sony Corporation (one of the best companies to come from Japan during those days) which also lost out to the very same companies you mentioned (Walkman > Apple) and (TV > Samsung).
My indecision is final.
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gaurav12123
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Quote gaurav12123 Replybullet Posted: 02/May/2012 at 4:38pm
nokia will not have place in my portfolio.

reasons

1
nokia is way behind its competitors. i think Android market is getting bigger and bigger and nokia dont have any phone who support Android operating system.

2
nokia was biggest player when margins were very very high. they were selling NOKIA 3310 @ 5000.




Edited by gaurav12123 - 02/May/2012 at 4:41pm
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kmp_saij
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Quote kmp_saij Replybullet Posted: 02/May/2012 at 4:54pm
Originally posted by gaurav12123

nokia will not have place in my portfolio.
reasons
1
nokia is way behind its competitors. i think Android market is getting bigger and bigger and nokia dont have any phone who support Android operating system.
2
nokia was biggest player when margins were very very high. they were selling NOKIA 3310 @ 5000.
 
Nokia has tied up with Microsoft (proverbial 800 pound Gorilla of S/W industry).. so future of Nokia is now tied to success of Microsoft's Mobile OS. If Nokia will fail here it will be toast. Still It deserves attention on this front. 


Edited by kmp_saij - 02/May/2012 at 4:55pm
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 02/May/2012 at 9:48pm

As an investor it might make sense to follow Lynch principle of not catching a falling knife and waiting for some clarity. If the stock were to go up (like Apple did last decade) there is a long way to go and if not the company can get into much worse shit.
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 02/May/2012 at 10:35am
Originally posted by subu76

As an investor it might make sense to follow Lynch principle of not catching a falling knife and waiting for some clarity. If the stock were to go up (like Apple did last decade) there is a long way to go and if not the company can get into much worse shit.




Would second this. Also there is no guarantee on APple the market cap prices in an innovation every 24 months not in product upgrades but in new categories. With these companies the trend changes very quickly look how RIM/Nokia lost out in a matter of a few quarters!
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 03/May/2012 at 5:06pm
New product software is very tricky. Products need to have great network effect
to ensure they can sustain.
 
Software is one area which does not require huge establishment cost and hence the risk of disruptive innovation is a possibility all the time.
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NikhilM
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Quote NikhilM Replybullet Posted: 03/May/2012 at 5:27pm
Nokia to launch Tablets and Smartphones to appease investors!!

What do people have to say about it? Should a company take directions from investors on what product categories to enter, what customers to serve? Isn't the management capable of doing it? What does it say about the company?
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