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master
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Quote master Replybullet Topic: Small Cap Investing - Key aspects to note
    Posted: 08/Dec/2010 at 8:09pm

It amuses me to see people crying on TED and other forum due to recent price crash in some stocks including Paral triggered by sebi order, charges levelled, operator activity and market perceptions. Let me state a few points on investment approach:

  1. Small cap investing is inherently risky which calls for appropriate risk appetite & time horizon.
  2. When investing in small or micro caps, an investor is better off if he is prepared both temperamentally & financially for 3-4 out of 10 investments going bad.
  3. Besides, in small caps one should be prepared for week-to-week volatility of 25-30% or higher, and equipped to handle problem in smooth exits (LC/UC) owing to reasons of liquidity, sentiment, holding pattern, unusual movement or management issues.
  4. Those who feel large corporates don't have governance issues need to re-think –rajus, a..., b..., c..., the list goes on & on, and we're not even talking about real estate & liquor companies. One "expert" on TV picked few so-called safe stocks couple of days back due to scams everywhere – one PSU, one Tata group and one MNC. Safety of these too is questionable since we've had issues in PSUs (LIC housing, balmer subsidiary, coal india subsidiary), accounting irregularity in TRF (from tata group), NR tapes etc. Safety tag has fallen off PSU banks too. So rather than panic, investor has to learn to make calculated bets in the given framework.
  5. When contributing reasons precipitate and/or business fundamentals deteriorate, losses have to be actually booked instead of dragging. It's simply part of the game. No emotions or sob story required there.
  6. If not comfortable with any of (1) to (5) above, it's time to switch to GOI bonds, FDs, and at best MFs because sooner or later, one of these is going to hit you.
  7. Alternative next to (6) on the risk scale is restricting to investment universe of large cap index stocks and the so-called safe ones.
  8. It is for these reasons we maintain diversified portfolios so that no single setback is too big. Like for someone holding 40 stocks, it's difficult to lose the plot unless there is a huge systemic issue.
  9. I am no way suggesting we should not exercise all caution & safeguard in stock selection, and each investment must be compelling enough on its  own legs. Concentration in few stocks generally works only when you're absolutely right, and more importantly proven right, as there are factors beyond our control. Imagine if you were holding large positions in just 5-6 unknown small cap stocks and 3 of them tank for one or the other reason. Portfolio construction & balance assumes importance in small cap investing more than it does in other categories.
  10.  If we re-visit (2), by implication remaining 60% stocks should be sufficient to outperform benchmark over a period of few years, if the picks were right in first place, had decent fundamentals and backed by right entry timing and due diligence. I don't care which expert says what about timing, to me it remains one of the decisive factors.
  11. Coming back to Paral, should someone holding it for last 18 months be complaining? If not 500%, you're still +200% at CMP, how many fancied great stocks have given that kind of return in same period. And if it doesn't suit one's style, what holds back from booking out.
  12. There is certainly more downside to Paral but no surprise if again bounces back 2-3 quarters down the line. If not, it's (1) to (5).


Edited by master - 21/Dec/2010 at 8:45pm
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 08/Dec/2010 at 8:50pm
Good argument! WHether it is a small cap or a large cap (Satyam) anyone who does not focus on the management integrity will pay the price - sooner or later.
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Kautilya
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Quote Kautilya Replybullet Posted: 08/Dec/2010 at 8:51pm
Valid points Master. Useful tenets for those holding small/micro caps. I am quite happy to see this correction, even though it has eroded more than half of my portfolio gains. What irked me was the colluding of promoters (Ruchi Soya and Karuturi), Sivasankaran and Stock Operators in Ruchi Soya and Karuturi where I previously had positions and used to believe in the management.
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Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 08/Dec/2010 at 11:06pm
Good points master.

I think investors in small caps need to be diversified in more number of stocks because the unknowns are more in this class of stocks. Returns also are much higher than the other category of stocks.

Some points while selecting small cap stocks:

Look at last 4-5 years results instead of focussing on few quarter to get a better idea about the business.

Profit Margins are going to fluctuate for many small caps because they dont have the scale to handle raw material price volatility.

Periodic profit booking is always advisable so as to reduce the acquisition cost.

Sustainable dividend yield offers some cushion on downside in market crashes.

Verifying management integrity is a difficult thing especially with small cap companies where promoters often tend to be greedy.

Besides these, balance sheet strength and other important ratios which basantji stresses like roe etc need to be watched closely while choosing stocks. In case of turnarounds and companies with capital sunk in expansion, these may not apply but still it is always a good idea to look at these. I learned these things only after joining this forum.
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
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KetanAdmirer
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Quote KetanAdmirer Replybullet Posted: 08/Dec/2010 at 8:34am
Kautilya,

Ruchi Soya Promoter has denied any links with the operator...

We have no business dealing with Rathod: Dinesh Shahra

As part of the ongoing investigations into a stock market scam, the Intelligence Bureau has alleged that market operator Vimal Rathod was cornering shares in KS Oils , Karuturi Global and Ruchi Soya on behalf of Siva Sankaran. In an interaction with ET Now, Dinesh Shahra, MD, Ruchi Soya, however, denied having any links with either Siva Sankaran or Rathod. Excerpts:


Even though you are not in Mumbai, the point is that there is an IB report which speaks about the promoters of Ruchi Soya involved in price rigging of a stock and taking it to substantial higher levels. How would you respond to this?

Dinesh Shahra : We have no business dealing with Mr. Rathod and we are in no way connected with them and so we have no comment on that.

Why is it that the IB ministry would have suspected Ruchi Soya as being one of the parties involved in such a thing if there has been no transaction ever? Have you been in contact with the concerned person at any point of time in your business cycle for any work?

Dinesh Shahra : No, we have no connection with the concerned person and we have no business dealing with him and we deny any relationship with him.

Just one word, however. Mr. Siva Sankaran holds closer to about 12% stake right now, were there any kind of talks going forward of Mr. Siva Sankaran actually going up and furthering that stake in the company?

Dinesh Shahra : No. Mr. Siva Sankaran has purchased shares from the open market and anybody is authorised to buy such shares. So what he does is his outlook and what he is going to do I cannot make any comment.

Sure, but does not it concern you the fact that he has about 11.5% in the company right now and according to the takeover norms as they stand as of now 15% and then he will have to make an open offer, but does not that concern you at all, a single individual holding about 11.5% in your company?

Dinesh Shahra : The company is a republic company and anybody can buy the stock from the market and if he buys the stock and he holds the stock, it is his prerogative. I cannot make any comment on that.

Have you been aware Mr. Shahra of any kind of engineering that this Mr. Rathod would have and since you said it’s a public company and anybody can buy a share, have you been informed of any kind of play that Mr. Rathod could have done in the shares of Ruchi Soya?

Dinesh Shahra : I really cannot make any comment on that. It’s a news to me and I have no control on what he does.

Alright, but you completely deny any kind of business contacts or otherwise with Mr. Rathod at any point of time in the last 3 or 4 years?

Dinesh Shahra : Yes, I have mentioned to you that we have no business dealing with this person and none of our persons are in contact with him.

But at any point in time were you at all looking at selling a significant part of your stake in the company because according to reports and according to the IB report, Ruchi Soya was planning to sell almost 26% of its stake once this share prices reached a certain high level?

Dinesh Shahra : No, I am sorry to say that No.1, the company has no plans to disinvest the stock. I mean anyway he is a private investor and he has bought from the stock market.

Are you concerned then given the stock’s reaction right now? Are not you a bit surprised because the market clearly seems to be worried about this issue and is reacting to the stock price as we speak?

Dinesh Shahra : My communication manager has called me. I am travelling to Delhi today and he just called me. I just came out of the meeting and this is a news to me and I said alright if they want to talk about it, you are welcome to talk to me.

One final word. Does the board of Ruchi Soya really have any enabling resolution for fundraising via sell of shares QIP or otherwise?

Dinesh Shahra : Yes, we have.

What would the quantum be?

Dinesh Shahra : We had a resolution in our last AGM and exactly I do not know the amount at the moment. But yes, we did have a resolution for the fundraising in the future as and when the company needs funds.
Cheers
Anand
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excel_monkey
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Quote excel_monkey Replybullet Posted: 08/Dec/2010 at 8:42am
price doesn't lie the stock was down 20+%
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Quote vaib Replybullet Posted: 08/Dec/2010 at 9:59am
Very insightful reading. I think everybody know this but had to be retold to remind the basics. For me hard part in learning is - when to sell. I haven't been able to learn to convince myself - "when to sell".

Always need to remember "liquidity, sentiment, holding pattern, unusual movement or management issues".

My reasoning:
* If a stock has fallen that doesn't mean stock is bad or it wouldn't deliver.
* Even if stock falls 30-40% but can deliver growth of 20%, it should be able to recover at least the invested money.
* Time of buying in small cap matters, it is probably better to be extremely cautious buying at the time of boom. But it raises the question for investors like me who are new and haven't got the opportunity to buy when markets were down. This dilemma is going to remain and learning has to come with time.

Again thanks to master ji for posting valuable piece of advice.
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aniljain
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Quote aniljain Replybullet Posted: 08/Dec/2010 at 10:48am
Originally posted by master

It amuses me to see people crying on TED and other forum due to recent price crash in some stocks including Paral triggered by sebi order, charges levelled, operator activity and market perceptions. Let me state a few points on investment approach:

  1. Small cap investing is inherently risky which calls for appropriate risk appetite & time horizon.
  2. When investing in small or micro caps, an investor is better off if he is prepared both temperamentally & financially for 3-4 out of 10 investments going bad.
  3. Besides, in small caps one should be prepared for week-to-week volatility of 25-30% or higher, and equipped to handle problem in smooth exits (LC/UC) owing to reasons of liquidity, sentiment, holding pattern, unusual movement or management issues.
  4. Those who feel large corporates don't have governance issues need to re-think –rajus, adanis, ruias, wadias, dalmias, hindujas, munjals, the list goes on & on, and we're not even talking about real estate & liquor companies. One "expert" on TV picked few so-called safe stocks couple of days back due to scams everywhere – one PSU, one Tata group and one MNC. Safety of these too is questionable since we've had issues in PSUs (LIC housing, balmer subsidiary, coal india subsidiary), accounting irregularity in TRF (from tata group), NR tapes etc. Safety tag has fallen off PSU banks too. So rather than panic, investor has to learn to make calculated bets in the given framework.
  5. When contributing reasons precipitate and/or business fundamentals deteriorate, losses have to be actually booked instead of dragging. It's simply part of the game. No emotions or sob story required there.
  6. If not comfortable with any of (1) to (5) above, it's time to switch to GOI bonds, FDs, and at best MFs because sooner or later, one of these is going to hit you.
  7. Alternative next to (6) on the risk scale is restricting to investment universe of large cap index stocks and the so-called safe ones.
  8. It is for these reasons we maintain diversified portfolios so that no single setback is too big. Like for someone holding 40 stocks, it's difficult to lose the plot unless there is a huge systemic issue.
  9. I am no way suggesting we should not exercise all caution & safeguard in stock selection, and each investment must be compelling enough on its  own legs. Concentration in few stocks generally works only when you're absolutely right, and more importantly proven right, as there are factors beyond our control. Imagine if you were holding large positions in just 5-6 unknown small cap stocks and 3 of them tank for one or the other reason. Portfolio construction & balance assumes importance in small cap investing more than it does in other categories.
  10.  If we re-visit (2), by implication remaining 60% stocks should be sufficient to outperform benchmark over a period of few years, if the picks were right in first place, had decent fundamentals and backed by right entry timing and due diligence. I don't care which expert says what about timing, to me it remains one of the decisive factors.
  11. Coming back to Paral, should someone holding it for last 18 months be complaining? If not 500%, you're still +200% at CMP, how many fancied great stocks have given that kind of return in same period. And if it doesn't suit one's style, what holds back from booking out.
  12. There is certainly more downside to Paral but no surprise if again bounces back 2-3 quarters down the line. If not, it's (1) to (5).
 
 
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