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vijay
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Quote vijay Replybullet Topic: Infosys - The big software daddy
    Posted: 19/Jul/2006 at 12:46pm

Infosys Technologies has reported robust numbers for Q1FY07, with revenues growing by 14.9% q-o-q on back of 11% volumes growth and 3% depreciation of the rupee against the dollar. A 6-8% depreciation of the Rupee against Euro and Pound has also helped boost the revenues for the first quarter. In the quarter Infosys had a gross addition of 8097 employees while net addition was at 5694 employees (+86%y-o-y). The management has guided for an employee intake of 25,000+ in FY07. 38 new clients were added in the current quarter while client mining was good with 97% of the business being repeat business. On a vertical basis BFSI, Telecom and BPO business witnessed strong double-digit sequential growth.

Margins were impacted in Q1FY07 due to wage hikes to the tune of 3.3% while visa costs have impacted the margins adversely by 1.3%. This was offset to a large extent by the dollar appreciation. Operating margins in Q1FY07 was at 29.5% against 31.7% in the last quarter. The management has guided that operating margins would be stable for the rest of the year. As on 30th June 2006 Infosys has $381mn of forex hedges marked to market at Rs 45.87 per dollar. Billing rates have been stable with an upward bias with new clients coming in at 3-4% higher billing rates.

It appears that margins would improve in the forthcoming quarters, as the fresh recruits would start getting deployed. Also, the second quarter is normally the best quarter for IT companies. For FY07, the management has increased the revenue guidance to Rs 133.5-134bn (earlier Rs. 122.5-124.5bn) representing a growth of 40.2-40.7%. EPS guidance has been raised to Rs 124.5-125.7 (earlier Rs. 113.8-115.6) representing a growth of 38.3-39.6%. The results are a positive surprise to the market.
What do you think?


Edited by basant - 26/Jul/2006 at 1:25pm
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 19/Jul/2006 at 6:32am
My  sense is that Infosys should do an E.P.S of Rs 128 for fy 07 and an EPS of Rs 160 for Fy 08. Post the bonus the EPS would be Rs 64 and Rs 80 respectively. Historically Infosys has tarded at a PE of 30 times current earnings therefore a price target of some where around Rs 2400 over the next 18 months is fairly achievable.That is a return of almost 50% from the current price of Rs 1612.
 
One of the biggest advanatges of having an Infosys in the portfolio is the ability to play the market decline. It would work out this way suppose the FII's wanted to pull out because of the current account of deficit or what ever reason, then the dollar would strengthen against a depreciating rupee. The biggest gainers under such circumstances would be the export oriented sector companies and particularly Infosys.
 
Therefore Infy could be played as a solid defensive stock  with minimal downside risk and a minimum 50% upside from current levels in about 18 months from now.
 
I assume the company to show 25% guidance for Fy 08.
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Quote binani_anand Replybullet Posted: 26/Jul/2006 at 1:18pm

LOOKING AT OVERALL RESULTS IT LOOKS LIKE TECH & CEMENT SECTOR

HAS PERFORMED WELL IN COMPARISON  TO OTHER SECTOR. IN THIS
 
UNCERTAIN MARKET WHERE INT RATE IS GOING UP,OIL PRICE IS
 
SHOOTING UP,INFY LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET AMONG BIG CAPS. IF INFY
 
GROWS 35-40% IN COMING YEARS IT CAN EASILY TOUCH 2500 IN NEXT
 
ONE TO ONE & HALF YEARS.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 30/Sep/2006 at 11:28pm

This  financial year should see  a 3-4% increase in billing rates from the new clients who are supposed to make about 5% of revenues.Some of the existing clients have also increased the rates but the broader picture is still coming out

 

Over the long run pricing is expected to improve. Infosys in the NASDAQ 100 by November 2006 would neither help pricing nor fundamentals but create significant demand for the ADR’s because there are funds who invest only in the NASDAQ stocks. A small PE Rerating could therefore be expected once that is done.

 

The biggest challenge facing IT firms is the scaling up of operations from these levels the hiring, training and retaining manpower will be the key challenge for the industry. In about 3 years Infy will be managing more then 100,000 employees and that would take some doing. Infosys says it spends US$100m per year on training, and is increasing its training capacity in Mysore from the current 4,500 to 13,500 by year end.

 

China is not a threat to the Indian IT sector. The wages in China are 20% higher than that to India. Moreover the project management skills are even below that to what is available here.

 

It is being estimated that Europe and within that, England  will grow much faster than US. Europe is growing at 55-60% annually.

 

But integration in continental Europe and Japan yet to hit full rhythm, This year Progeon should do $ 130m in revenues, over $85m last year.

 

Infosys is expanding its bouquet of services so that it could outperform the industry growth rates.

 

In last 5 years, Infosys has grown revenues at a 38% CAGR, compared to slightly less then 30% for the industry.

 

I am told that Infosys and probably TCS have offices in the same building in Hungry. These software giants are aggressively looking at newer markets for growth.

Source:  Company Presentation at CLSA meet.



Edited by basant - 30/Sep/2006 at 11:49am
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 30/Sep/2006 at 12:03pm

Sorry to post it here Basant ji, but was wondering if you could provide some detailed insight into "Block Deals". Like for example, TCS has had block deals, totaling to around 130,000 shares in the past week at prices around Rs. 1022. What kind of inference can we make out this?

This is just for curiosity's sake, that is all.

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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 30/Sep/2006 at 12:05pm

Can you tell me about details of who sold or who bought etc.

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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 30/Sep/2006 at 12:14pm

I just did a search on moneycontrol.com but I dont seem to find it. I saw the news on CNBC channel on Friday. Two block deals, 85K at 1029 and 50K at 1022. Sorry, dont have any more info. It's okay if you cant provide any analysis, based on this; no hassles!

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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 30/Sep/2006 at 12:20pm
Generally I look at where the stock has moved Employees to Inst and Inst to Inst does not make any diff; Inst to Pvt investor matters a lot and so does a promoter buy call.
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