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Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
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hallmark
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Quote hallmark Replybullet Topic: Should one trade or invest?
    Posted: 22/Dec/2008 at 12:50pm

This is the eternal question that one has to answer more so in the case of the Unemployed like me. This is a topic started to impart tools for one to go about asking these questions.

 Every strategy succeeds or fails………..as long as it does. Warren Buffett- the investor and Rakesh JhunJhunwala- the trader cum investor. I have failed to mention here Jesse Livermore the legendary tape-reader who listened to a tip in the end from his friend and lost it all, only to commit suicide.

 

Let’s start with trading. There are various traders- like trend followers, trend buckers like George Soros who has made a fortune in commodities, currencies and stocks?. Wasn’t Unitech and Reliance Entertainment his last investments. Traders can use various tools- like RSI, Bollinger,etc. Some swear by them. However, the successful traders emerge bankrupt in the beginning of their strategy. Despite the tools they use, they have devised a rigorous trading plan and money-management. These successful traders have developed intuition which aids them no matter whatever metrics they use. It’s like glasses of pink, yellow or whatever colour they use to see the world, but they use intuition. No technical indicator can help than intuition. Whether it is a value stock behaving like growth stock, intuition helps in assessing the fact. The brokerage industry has an inherent advantage in proclaiming the importance of activity (As opposed to inactivity), promoting gunslinging (It happens in the Wild Wild West, but it also happens in the market). However, you have to ask yourself one important question- Are you here to play or keep count? What is your personality suited to? If you have it like RJ then you are proclaimed a trader and you will be sent to play. However, remember a player has to know the rules, the weather and all other details. Fortune will smile upon you if you are like RJ- the man whom we see one in a generation. If you think you are the one, go out and play, for you shall succeed if you have the persistence, the willingness to fail, the willingness to book a loss by instituting a stop loss and a penchant for focusing on trade, willingness to shoot in the dark (This is not to be worried upon as we feel S*x is better performed in night than day, which is the reason I gave a lot of thought and rejected BPO jobs) and hard work.

 

Going to investors, people have it in their heads that they need to be a crorepati to invest. This is farther from the truth. Whatever money you have, you should be in a position to deploy it properly to ensure that the investments you make give you a return in excess of  the inflation. Inflation and turnover are the enemies of any person in the stock market.

 

If you are a person who likes to research and likes to keep count then you shall be proclaimed an investor regardless of the money you have. It means reading a lot, investing in a few stocks (remember the quote- a little bit of this and a little bit of that and you shall have a zoo). Reduce your stocks to 3-5 companies, let time be on your side, pay attention to the fundamentals, not be a gunslinger and listen to tips. For tips are free, and lunch is free. How will the world run?. Remember the dumbest thing that anybody could do is buy a stock that is rising in a bull market?.

 

We shall continue to revisit the topic, with our own Basantji hopefully being able to shed light on the topic.

 

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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 22/Dec/2008 at 1:46pm
Generally it is very difficult not to trade when you do not have enough money and that is why it is all the more important not to trade.
 
I have made some money onbly by sitting back and watching my investments grow but one can argue that I was enjoying the best period of our country's history but in hindsight all periods are good and bad depending on what we do in that period.
 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote hallmark Replybullet Posted: 22/Dec/2008 at 6:28pm
It's true! whatever research you look, most of the people who think they are too clever sell their winners and keep the losers. They underperform the DowJones or the Sensex by 3-4 percentage points. In compounding over a 20 year time frame, that can add up to add a lot of dollars or rupees. The stocks which they sell give stellar returns, the stocks they buy underperform.
 
 
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Quote hallmark Replybullet Posted: 22/Dec/2008 at 6:40am

Remember John Keynes exhortation- The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Since the days of Rakesh JhunJhunwala where he could operate in BSE and where electronic based trading was non existent, there was a timelag between the time investors could get and react to the information.

 

With demat this is no longer the case. One could argue rumuors, facts are difussed. It does not matter any longer that you are not operating from the BSE. Does it mean that the markets are efficient more than ever? We have no way of knowing that. One can be certain that RJ fortune cannot be ascribed to a buy and hold strategy. He sold off ACC before it crashed. Infosys was the greatest wealth creator during the 90’s where 1 lakh invested would be 1 crore and above. The market’s noise in the short term is completely different from the value creation takes place in the long term. RJ now is in a similar predicament as the others as information flows through the internet.

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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 22/Dec/2008 at 9:07am
Are the 2 things very separate at the first place???
 
how can I invest if I dont trade. However, like with any other business, you need to have that animal instinct to be successful.
 
Also, i dont understand this 5-7 stocks thing. I have seen more people losing their head and heart, who tried to do this 3-5 stock stunt than those who have kept a very well-broad based holding.
 
All you need is original thinking, free thinking, and fearless thinking. Thats all........
Jai Guru!!!
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 22/Dec/2008 at 9:31am
I have made more money then I could with a 3 stock portfolio and it has worked out well for me but as they say "Caveat Emptor".
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote absolut Replybullet Posted: 22/Dec/2008 at 11:57am
Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

Are the 2 things very separate at the first place???
 
how can I invest if I dont trade. However, like with any other business, you need to have that animal instinct to be successful.
 
Also, i dont understand this 5-7 stocks thing. I have seen more people losing their head and heart, who tried to do this 3-5 stock stunt than those who have kept a very well-broad based holding.
 
All you need is original thinking, free thinking, and fearless thinking. Thats all........
 
I quite agree with vivek here . I have a different way of thinking when it comes to trading and investing . I am not a trader nor an investor ...what i want is returns ..however they come . I have a couple of points to make here -
 
 1. We all agree taht we need to invest in companies with definite future , healthy balance sheets , great management etc . Which means that we cannot invest in every company that`s listed ? However , we can trade in every company that`s listed . I have regards for PRIL , but i don`t hate Bindal Agro which gave me around 20% return in two days  or a abhishek industry for that matter .
 
2 .  we all agree that investing is less riskier than trading . But there is a flip side to it . Lets assume a stock X : 100 ( week 1 ) , 105 ( week 2 ) , 100 ( week 3 ) , 98 ( week 4 ) , 126 ( week 5 ) ............................ ????( week n ) ... now all the investots will invest from week - week n to get the returns ...... however a trader might go from week1 to week 5 .. get the 20% return and enjoy . The investor in turn takes the risk of holding it till week n to get to ???? , which might not happen ( it would go down to 75) ,,, true the investor believes in the fundamentals ... but isint he taking a bigger risk compared to the trader who has already seen a 20% jump and is done with it ???
 
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Quote hallmark Replybullet Posted: 23/Dec/2008 at 1:09pm
As I must say- there are lack of good quality companies in the marketplace. the kind of companies we can buy and go to sleep at night. In case you are in the wrong stocks, it doesn't help to buy and hold forever. Buy and hold forever operates only in companies with good economic characteristics. In that case, the only company you get is the commodities,cyclical- you have to flip them after a period of time.
 
Let me give you an example. A solicitor who handles the estates of dead people who were rich found that people had Coco-Cola in their portfolio. In India, unless you are in companies like Reliance, Larsen and Toubro, Sesa-Goa, Pantaloon Retail, Educomp Solutions and so on. You cannot get a good night's sleep.You have to flip them in the bull market. There's no other option.
 
What companies do you have is crux of the issue- deteriorating economics, no economics, or good economics. May Ben Graham's soul rest in peace for telling us that!
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