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vijayM
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Quote vijayM Replybullet Topic: Equity analysis Strategies
    Posted: 09/Apr/2008 at 10:31pm
Dear Basant Sir,
 
Sometime back I had requested you to start a thread on equity analysis methodology so that beginners like me can develop equity analysis science/art. I request you to putup a general procedure of analysis with some case studies. I would prefer to see the analysis of a STEADY GROWTH COMPANY LIKE HDFC/HDFC BANK and one CYCLICAL company like L&T.
 
I am impressed by Warren Buffett method of analysing stocks but couldnot apply them myself due to lack of complete understanding.
 
If you feel this request is not appropriate, you may delete this thread.
 
Thanks
vijay
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 09/Apr/2008 at 9:11am
I had already explained my strategy.Maybe the others could add.
 
I think that you have not been able to understand my strategy so let me repeat my investing strategy for you:

 

A) I never hold any large caps. In fact I sold out Bharti once it hit Rs 120 (Market cap Rs 20,000 crores) after getting in at Rs 25 (Market cap Rs 4000 crores) because it was approaching a market cap I was not comfortable with. That eliminates all the established blue chip from my portfolio. I am constantly in search for emerging blue chips and not the established ones. That is why I invest in small/midcap companies. I believe that you can get the next Infosys in a small cap only.

 

B) I hold at most between 3 and 5 companies in my portfolio. Yes only 3 to 5. Once I finish analyzing a company I ask myself one question “Is the company good enough to take 20% of my portfolio. When ever I get an answer as yes the next question is OK what can I replace it with. If I get another yes I would buy that stock. I prefer putting all my money into one company but just for the event risk I have divided it into 3 to 5.

 
Since I hold concentrated portfolios 3 to 5 companies I forecast a best case scenario with only the target price of 2 to 4 companies assuming that one will go bust and get me a zero value in the defined time span. If still the overall result looks exciting I would invest taking the mathematical premise that errors will cancel out each other (I do not know which one will under deliver and by how much).Robert Hagstorm the author of a book on Warren Buffet did a study where he found that concentarted portfolios give out better returns
 
I have lost many 30% to 100% returns by missing on opportunities because those companies did not fit my style of investing. But I have no regret because the ones I hold have more or less made up for that.
 

It takes me hardly one hour to analyze a company but making up my mind (the second part of B above) takes a few days or a even a few weeks at times. This is so because I believe in concentration.

 

C) This is how I like to zero down on a company.

1)      I look at the management first. The management is the most important and lest talked about aspect of a company.

2)      I like to know what business the company is into and then look at whether it is scalable. I prefer new sectors since the growth is highest there. I avoid cyclical because I cannot predict the peaks and troughs.

3)      I then look at the market cap. If it is below Rs 1000 crores I think we could pay a higher PE to that company

4)      I would then look at the RoE to see if the company is using its capital efficiently. RoCE is a better concept though because you could hike the RoE by using debt but not the RoCE

5)      I would then compare the PE with the growth and the RoE. If there is a big difference between RoE and growth then the company does not merit investments. This is so because for a company to grow at higher rates of growth compared to its RoE it would have to dilute capital. That hurts

6)      Dividend, book value is something that I look but do not base any of my decisions upon. I think that they tell you what the company has done and not what it will do.

 

D) Once a stock is bought and the price falls without any change in fundamentals and if I have the required cash I will buy at each fall.

 

Now I do not stop at step 1 of phase C above. I do look at steps 2,3,4 and 5 of phase C above but there is a difference in priority. That is all. For instance I like Financial technology. MCX could be HUGE but I am worried by valuations so each time I want to buy the stock I think in terms of phase B above and give it a pass.

 

 So it is just a matter of prioritizing the tools of analysis. No analysis is complete without putting all tools at work. In none of my reports will you find the valuation parameter missing because irrespective of the strategy you use the final objective is to make the stock price a slave of its earning. The question is which one are you more comfortable using when compared to the others i.e. prioritizing the tools.

'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote vijayM Replybullet Posted: 10/Apr/2008 at 7:25pm
Dear Sir,
 
Perhaps I am not able to convey my point correctly. I have gone through this thread of "my investment strategy". My point here is not investment strategy but equity analysis. Part C does discusses this matter but I would prefer to see some case studies such as HDFC Bank & L&T which belong to two separate class (STEADY v/s CYCLICAL).

I am a technically(engg) qualified person and for me to understand theory, I need to study some solved problems which apply the theory. Therefore I need ssome demonstration of application of Part C for above two cases. I wish to see how you calculate "INTRINSIC VALUE" of stocks. Right now I am unable to judge whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued. So far I am using PEG method. (At present PEG of L&T is 0.84 and that of HDFC bank is 0.74 based on Mar09 EPS projected; I cant analyse more than this.)

In a nutshell I want to understand how to "value" a stock with the help of one or two case studies.
 
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vijay
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 10/Apr/2008 at 8:28pm
It is difficult to put a general rule but broadly I can illustrate what I do in financial analysis:
 
1) The business comes first as a scalable/non cyclical venture assumes greater sustainability of earnings and lesser chances of movement away from the linear path.
 
2) The RoCE should be equal to or greater then growth if the RoCE is low then we need to understand whethre this is low because of  investments that have been tied up in initiatives that are not yet contributing to bottomline or this is the historic trend all along.For example if LT has a 40%+ RoCE we need to see if this was the trend say 4 years back or are they in a sweet spot. With HDFC ban they have maintained a ratio of 20% all throughout.
 
3) PE should be equated with growth where "growth" will be capped at RoE => normally. COmpanies talk abo9ut 70% growth with a 25% RoE. This is amathematical impossibility in the long run. In the short term 2-3 years you can have 70% growth by improving efficiencies.
 
4) Margins do not matter. What matters is industry margins and whether the company has got the best margins in the industry. For example company with 30% EBIDTA and 20% RoE is worse then a company with 10% margin and 20%RoE. That is because with a 30% EBISTA new competitors will get in to break the entry barrier thus driving margins down!
 
5) I look at the industry size. For example a company with a market cap of Rs 1000 crores in a Rs 10,000 crore industry is approaching saturation compared to a company with a 10,000 crore market cap with a market size of Rs 500,000 crores! Market caps in absolute nukbers are misleading and mean nothing.
 
Now about valuing stocks as part of case studies what I do is put these parameters along with a few other normal ones like mktcap/sales etc for the various players in an industry.
 
It is diffcult and almost impossible to target  an absolute price for a stock. What we get is broad approximation as to whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued and then we take it from there.
 
Maybe other people can add to this and we can take that forward.
 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 10/Apr/2008 at 11:03pm
Margins do not matter. What matters is industry margins and whether the company has got the best margins in the industry. For example company with 30% EBIDTA and 20% RoE is worse then a company with 10% margin and 20%RoE. That is because with a 30% EBISTA new competitors will get in to break the entry barrier thus driving margins down!
 
Although logical, it doesn't seem to have happened in our real estate industry - so far.
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Quote vijayM Replybullet Posted: 10/Apr/2008 at 11:25pm
Thanks a lot Basantji for ur reply. I will need more time to understand your reply as I am new to equity analysis.
 
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vijaySmile
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shivkumar
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Quote shivkumar Replybullet Posted: 10/Apr/2008 at 12:44pm
since I can't make head or tail of the numbers and analysis put out by people like Basant or VijayM, I simply look at the stocks they are bullish on and cherry pick a few (actually a lot) to invest in.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 10/Apr/2008 at 9:08am
Originally posted by smartcat

Margins do not matter. What matters is industry margins and whether the company has got the best margins in the industry. For example company with 30% EBIDTA and 20% RoE is worse then a company with 10% margin and 20%RoE. That is because with a 30% EBISTA new competitors will get in to break the entry barrier thus driving margins down!
 
Although logical, it doesn't seem to have happened in our real estate industry - so far.
 
With real estate we are just looking at a 3-4 year view which is not a full cycle. These companies have built their properties on land which was purchased years ago. SO this 30% EBIDTA is based out of a historic decision I doubt if anyone can create that kind of a margin buying property right now.
 
 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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