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 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Fundamental
Message Icon Topic: Good Dividend Yield (Sustainable) stocks Post Reply Post New Topic
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 8:27pm
Originally posted by paragdesai

Vivekji,
 
Some Interesting Statistics for you.
 
 
hehehe.......I just got a note from my dad that reduce current year DPS by 50 p.c and estimate next year's dividend receipt and plan how to match the gap......I am so damn confused as to how to go about this exercise...
 
 
 
 
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paragdesai
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Quote paragdesai Replybullet Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 8:30pm
So as per your estimate Next year dividend may reduce by 50%?
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 8:39pm
Thats as per my dad.......In my opinion, some firms may increase dividend as well, some will retain their current DPS but some are either going to reduce or skip dividends as well. the number of companies slashing/skipping may outnumber those keeping it constant/increasing it, by a massive margin.
 
Some commodity stocks, some marginal dividend payers may be the culprits. Thats why, I am saying that yield mongers need to recalculate their DPS and also increase expected yield before chasing any yield stock.
 
My scheme is to reduce current year' dividend per share by 1/3, and go for a stock, if and only if, at the reduced DPS, the stock is offering you 8 p.c. individual investors can reduce the DPS estimate by more than 1/3, at their individual discretion, and can even consider a skip scenario.
 
For yield stocks, also avoid paying more than 4-5 times cash earnings, and try to get them at a 40 p.c discount to reported book value, after eliminating all revaluation reserves. also, add any contingent liabilities, to further enhance the Margin of Safety.
 
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paragdesai
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Quote paragdesai Replybullet Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 8:56pm

I don't want to contradict to you but if you ignore any commodity stock & consider commodity using stock their margin can be improved dramatically (provided not gone through forward contract) despite having lower on sales side by few % due to slowdown many of them should maintain their net profit level. Due to uncertainty going forward they may reduce pay out ratio,

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Hitesh Shah
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Quote Hitesh Shah Replybullet Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 8:56pm
I feel "dividend mongers" will be smiling even if they suffer for a couple of years because the current fall in share price compensates for quite a few missed / reduced dividend pay-out!
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 9:03pm
Originally posted by paragdesai

I don't want to contradict to you but if you ignore any commodity stock & consider commodity using stock their margin can be improved dramatically (provided not gone through forward contract) despite having lower on sales side by few % due to slowdown many of them should maintain their net profit level. Due to uncertainty going forward they may reduce pay out ratio,

 
I agree there.......therefore, i am quite bullish on lubricants, tyres, plastic pipes, paper, select chemicals, crop care, tea, select logostics, PSUs in general, MNCs in general.
 
Actually, this is a period when we intended to buy and what we intended to sell, both have fallen. So, net net, we are neither better off but nor worse off. Perhaps, this is the best time to churn to safety and creation of extremely durable portfolio. The only hitch is that some FMCG stocks are holding out way too strongly to give you that churning opportunity.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 9:06pm
Originally posted by Hitesh Shah

I feel "dividend mongers" will be smiling even if they suffer for a couple of years because the current fall in share price compensates for quite a few missed / reduced dividend pay-out!
 
Dividend mongers never feel missed out. We will not buy anything if we have to over-pay.
 
Perhaps, the only mistake that I have made this time is that I compromised on my principles in some cases, where I should have adhered to my core rules. I went for less than 3.5 p.c.p.a stocks, and that was a shame for me.
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praveen
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Quote praveen Replybullet Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 9:27am
Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

I dont think, payout ratio is all that important, until and someone proves otherwise to me.


Its helps you to judge the quality of the dividend paid. Say if a company is just paying 25%-35% of its profits as dividends and retaining the rest then even if the profits go down by 50% in the next year, in all likelihood it would retain its dividend level. So while contemplating investment in such companies you might miss out using your rule of thumb.

Pay-out ratio tells you about the robustness of the dividends paid.
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