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Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
 The Equity Desk Forum :Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios! :Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
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vishal.sahay
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Quote vishal.sahay Replybullet Posted: 14/Nov/2006 at 3:55pm
Very well analysed. Hats off to u
Vishal
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vishal.sahay
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Quote vishal.sahay Replybullet Posted: 16/Nov/2006 at 9:51am
Could anyone tell me that the Indiabulls restate share what we are going to get after Indiabulls financial services demerger, what will be the face valyue of it?
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 20/Nov/2006 at 7:25am
Potential of home loan ...
I saw SK statistics ..
People in SK will pay 42 B USD interests on homeloan this year. Can one sense how big home loan/mortgage biz can grow in India.
Second part is oviously reals-estate potential. One can find both at one place.


Edited by vipul - 20/Nov/2006 at 7:26am
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 26/Nov/2006 at 4:49am
IBFL promotor has mentioned that demerger will happen in Q3. As dates are within 1 month, I advise ppl to hold it. Fresh buying may not be fruitfull, as it has climbed alot. It will not participate in any correction due to this near-term exicement.
I guess caseis pending in Highcourt and we all know how it works. Patience will pay for one.
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 30/Nov/2006 at 5:32am
Investment in Indiabulls Infrastructure Development by old buddies LN Mittal and Farallon Capital ensures high valuations for IBFL. As per deal IIDL values at 3352.5 Cr. Remember insider people will pay discount to actual valuation as they already sit in the board. Being non listed entity there is no SEBi rules for preferancial allotment. So if they are paying INR 437 per share, it means acual value (for outsiders) is well above this.
I have been positively surprised by managment. First Ilike thier holding pattern, inspite of being holding comapny they keep on getting excellent valuations. Venturing into unrelated fields has been rewarding for minority shareholders (unlike in many other cases). Right now IBFL has following holding business .. real estate, brokarage, consumer finance and morgage.
Real estate constists of IBRL and IIDL (may be few more). IIDL itself valued at 3352.5 Cr. IBRL has 2 mumbai, sonipat and delhi properties. Valuations of these properties are well above 2000 Cr. Also I am sure they are also looking for more. So total valae of Real estate busines is 3352.5 + 2000 = 5352.5 Cr. (on conservative basis).
Comparing current valuations of IBFL (marketcap of 9000 Cr). It means other 3 business are valued at 9000 - 5352.5 = 3647.5 Cr. Which is well below actual valuations. Fair valuation for these 3 business are 6000 - 7000 Cr.  So there is scope of 7000 -3647.5 = 3352.5 Cr market cap. Which translates into upside of 200 INR from current level.
Here all valuations are conservatively calculated. Also it does not include any potential possibility of new ventures.
Happy holding....
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 06/Dec/2006 at 7:24am
Indiabulls Financial Services received the order from Delhi high court approving the demerger of real estate business of the company to Indiabulls Real Estate. Pursaunt to the scheme of de-merger, each shareholder of the transferor company will be entitled to one share in the demerged company. Indiabulls Real Estate would hold the various real estate companies of Indiabulls as its majority owned subsidiaries. The shares ownership of Indiabulls Financial Services in its real estate companies would be demerged to Indiabulls Real Estate.
Upon demerger, Indiabulls Real Estate will be one of the largest listed real estate companies. The companies development activities are focused on tier 1 cities and the company has a significant position in Mumbai where it is developing 19 acres of mill lands that it had bought in NTC auction last year for Rs 7.18 billion. The company is also developing 36 acres of land in South Delhi that it had bought in DDA auction for Rs 4.51 billion in partnership with DLF.
---------------------------
Please don't buy it in lots, leave something for post-demerger.
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Quote anurag Replybullet Posted: 07/Dec/2006 at 1:59pm
Try Out Allianz Securities....
 

pick of the week (ICICIDIRECT)

<>

Allianz Securities Ltd.(ALLSEC)

 

.

Background  

Allianz Securities is a 12-year-old investment bank of repute with extensive expertise in investment banking, corporate finance & restructuring and fixed income product & service offerings. Allianz Securities is Sebi-approved Category-I Merchant Banker, underwriter and portfolio manager. The company also undertakes distribution of financial instruments like mutual funds, bonds, insurance, etc. It has an active network of associate/sub broker of 3500 spread across India. Very recently, through its subsidiaries Almondz, it forayed into equity and commodity broking. The promoters hold 44.7% equity of the company.  

Investment Rationale 

Established player in equity market
Allianz Securities was ranked 16th among private investment bankers in issue management for period April-2005 - March 2006. It offers the entire gamut of merchant banking services ranging from IPO issuances, private placement, fund syndication and M&A deals. Among its assignments were the public issue of Jai Prakash Hydro, public issue of GIPCO, public issue of FCS Software and public issue of Gayatri Projects. It also handled the rights issue of Mawana Sugars, Gujarat Alkalies, Spicejet, etc.  >

Active in debt market
The company is very active in the debt market. It has been associated with borrowing of over Rs 50,000 crore (US$ 11 billion) representing almost a fifth of the funds mobilized in the domestic debt market. It has strong client base comprising of provident funds, pension funds, mutual funds banks, insurance companies, etc. It has seen a steady rise in fixed income mobilization from Rs 6,900 crore or 46 issues in FY02 to Rs 19,800 crore or 52 issues in FY06. 

Rapid strides in distribution business
Allianz has a network of 17 branches and 3,500 empanelled brokers/sub-brokers. It has made rapid strides in the distribution business and is active in insurance, mutual funds, bonds, etc. Distribution income has been gaining strength, rising from Rs 10.6 crore in FY05 to Rs 24.8 crore in FY06 and contributing almost 50% of revenues in FY06. Considering an average yield of 2%, Allianz Securities distributed Rs 1,200-1,300 crore worth of financial instruments. 

Foray into broking
To expand its product offering and increase revenue stream, Allianz has ventured in the broking business (equities and commodities) through its wholly-owned subsidiary ‘Almondz Capital Market’. Company will initially service institutional clients. Thereafter, it aims to venture in the retail space. With its entry into the broking business, Allianz Securities has become a complete financial boutique offering a wide gamut of services. 

Outlook  

Strong macro economic factors, rising industry confidence and growing investment capex creates a healthy environment for merchant bankers like Allianz Securities. We are witnessing a healthy business environment where appetite to raise funds through the equity and debt issue has risen manifolds and players like Allianz Securities are citing huge business opportunity. The company has a rich pipeline with almost Rs 600-700 crore of IPOs where it is mandated as a Book Running & Lead Manager. Equivalent amount of mandates are under execution in the private placement and M&A space. We maintain a positive outlook on business in coming quarters.

We believe that, Company is amongst a handful of financial boutique offering full range of financial products and revenue size in excess of Rs 50 Crore.  

 

 

 

Quarter ended

Year ended

Rs. cr

year

 

2006/09

2005/09

var %

 

2006/03

2005/03

var %

Sales Income

 

11.65

11.31

3.00

 

52.94

30.01

76.43

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Income

 

0.07

0.04

84.21

 

0.35

2.65

-86.87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenditure

 

7.93

7.22

9.83

 

35.94

23.57

52.48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interest

 

0.40

0.83

-52.40

 

2.61

2.16

20.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Profit

 

3.40

3.30

2.97

 

14.74

6.93

112.82

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Depreciation

 

0.09

0.07

36.36

 

0.34

0.17

100.59

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tax

 

1.05

1.14

-8.15

 

5.18

2.41

114.59

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PAT

 

2.26

2.09

7.98

 

9.23

4.35

112.31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity

 

9.60

6.37

50.72

 

7.81

6.37

22.61

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OPM (%)

 

31.93

36.16

-4.23

 

32.11

21.46

10.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GPM (%)

 

28.50

28.82

-0.32

 

27.18

14.26

12.92

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NPM (%)

 

19.40

18.50

0.90

 

17.42

14.48

2.94

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Key Financial Ratios

 

2005/03

2004/03

2003/03

2002/03

2001/03

EPS

4.26

1.84

0.77

0.22

0.07

CEPS

4.46

1.97

0.89

0.32

0.17

Book Value

14.42

10.63

8.08

6.24

5.45

Dividend/Share

1.50

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

OPM

27.64

15.59

14.72

8.55

3.69

RONW

39.61

22.54

16.94

6.94

1.68

Debt/Equity

1.74

3.33

0.31

0.10

0.03

Ratio

4.62

5.02

5.10

6.24

5.50

Interest Cover

4.22

6.92

34.07

169.96

6.92

 

Financials:

Sales grew by 62% in FY06 to Rs 52.9 crore from Rs 32.5 in FY05. Net profit grew at faster pace at 104% to Rs 9.2 crore from Rs 4.5 crore during the same period. For the first half of FY07, the company reported a net profit of Rs 3.93 crore on sales of Rs 20.7 crore.  

 

 

 

Valuation  

Considering the recent deals in the broking and merchant banking business, we have valued Allianz Securities on a market cap to sales basis. India Infoline trades at 5.2x FY06 sales. Motilal Oswal clinched an equity deal with investors at 10x FY06 sales and SSKI was valued at 3s FY06 sales in recent deal. Considering that 50% of Allianz Securities’ business is earned through distribution of financial instruments, we value the company at 2.1x FY06 sales, translating into a value of Rs 128 crore or Rs 70 per share. The same should also be seen in light of 3.8% dividend yield (Rs 1.5 dividend last year) and more steady debt broking business with clients like provident funds, pension funds, mutual funds banks and insurance companies.

 

 

Bulk Deals in last few days:

 

04-Dec-2006

Allianz Sec (BSE)

Icici International Limit

Buy

500000

49.90

49.75

01-Dec-2006

Allianz Sec (BSE)

Hsbc Financial Services M

Buy

500000

48.00

49.00

30-Nov-2006

Allianz Sec (BSE)

Accord Capital Markets Lt

Buy

239578

45.86

46.50

30-Nov-2006

Allianz Sec (BSE)

Jmp Securities Pvt. Ltd.

Buy

84447

45.00

46.50

30-Nov-2006

Allianz Sec (BSE)

Prism Impex Pvt Ltd

Buy

100000

44.90

46.50

29-Nov-2006

Allianz Sec (BSE)

Rajasthan Global Sec Ltd

Sell

1500000

33.00

39.80

Take your call!!
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 11/Dec/2006 at 11:54am
Today I had deeper look at valuation of IBFL. It goes like this ...
1. Indiabulls Credit services (engaged into consumer loans) 52% of 3000 Cr = 1500
2. Indiabulls home finance (engaged into home mortgage) 66% of 1000 Cr = 660 Cr
3. Indiabulls Infra Devep (engaged into large infrastructure projects) 87%of 3500 Cr = 3010
4. Indiabulls Real estate (engaged into residential and commercial projects) 2000 * 50% = 1000. For this I have no confirmation on valuation.  All other values, I got from bse announcements. I remember analyst saying 3000-4000 Cr when they picked Mumbai properties.
5. Indiabulls Sec (engaged into stock brokerage biz). No idea but it is 100% subs of IBFL. Assuming 3000-4000 Cr
6. Indiabulls commodities (engaged into commodities brokerage biz).  No idea but it is 100% subs of IBFL. Assuming 400-600Cr.
 
Sum of the parts are 1500 + 660 + 3010 + 1000 + 3000 + 400 = 9570 Cr.
On face it looks like valuation is at par with market price but remember some of these valuations are old and by now value in home, consumer fin, real estate would have increased a bit. Also I am not aware of any other line of businesses, IBFL is thinking/investing of. Above valuation is from operating companies. One can add some value (200 -300 Cr) in holding company as well.


Edited by vipul - 11/Dec/2006 at 11:58am
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