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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 8:32pm
The market is a great teacher it will remove all confusion for the believer and also the non-believer!!!
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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SORUB
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Quote SORUB Replybullet Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 8:39pm
Investing in proven,stable & well managed companies pays(not talking about multi baggers) in bull/bear market....
K.I.S.S(keep it simple silly) is the most easy management formula i ever came across!!! but it is very hard to follow!!!
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SORUB
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Quote SORUB Replybullet Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 8:46pm
people who invest in companies like hdfc family,crisil,some of the tata companies and companies like havells will have good money in the next 5 years...wat say basantji?
K.I.S.S(keep it simple silly) is the most easy management formula i ever came across!!! but it is very hard to follow!!!
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Quote kanagala Replybullet Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 8:52pm
Thanks for write up sir.Your guidance is helping us a lot. You are the best teacher.
Regarding valuation, do you think ted11 stocks are available at reasonable  valuations i.e., growing at 40% and available at 12PE levels. Please keep giving us valuation perspective for ted 11 stocks. Ideally, i would want to invest most of money in them if available at these valuation.
While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior.
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 9:34pm
Originally posted by kanagala

Thanks for write up sir.Your guidance is helping us a lot. You are the best teacher. Regarding valuation, do you think ted11 stocks are available at reasonable  valuations i.e., growing at 40% and available at 12PE levels. Please keep giving us valuation perspective for ted 11 stocks. Ideally, i would want to invest most of money in them if available at these valuation.


Thanks we do keep talking of that on the respective threads but broadly all stocks do not confirm to that criteria but as I said valuations are not water tight and should be relaxed depending on management integrity, business potential etc.


Originally posted by SORUB

people who invest in companies like hdfc family,crisil,some of the tata companies and companies like havells will have good money in the next 5 years...wat say basantji?


Broadly yes.


'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote TCSer Replybullet Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 12:05pm
10 RULES FOR BEAR MARKET
Holding your nerve in a bear market requires both sound knowledge and a cool head. If you can do so, you can both reduce losses and find profitable gems gathering dust. After all, it's worth remembering that that most revered of all investment prophets Warren Buffet eyes bear markets with a special gleam in his eye - for it's at such times that buying opportunities are available with handsome value in-built into their prices. Here are ten rules from a master trader to steer by in difficult times...

Flick the switch

You'll never make rational investment decisions if you're mesmerised by the gyrating prices on your screen. Steel yourself not to look at prices, read market reports or talk to stockbrokers during trading hours. Markets are not going to turn for the better just because you will them to. And, as prices have fallen so far, it matters little if you miss the first inch of their eventual recovery.

Pound the streets

You don't just need a sense of perspective; you need the widest possible perspective. The best investment opportunities are those you discover by observation of the workings of the economy in the aftermath of the stock market collapse. If you can bear it, take the taxi driver litmus test.

Read a good book

History never repeats itself exactly, but you owe it to yourself to be acquainted with the bear markets of yesteryear. At least if history does then repeat itself you can't say that you weren't warned. I'd recommend J. K. Galbraith's The Great Crash, a brief but insightful analysis of 1929 and all that went before and after.

Avoid collateral damage

In 1987 the real economy emerged from the crash virtually unscathed. Next time around the world may not be so lucky. It will take time for share price damage to have its full effect elsewhere. Use this opportunity to pull out of that house move, sell your granny's Gauguin and ask your boss for an extended contract.

Dust off the abacus

Down and dirty financial analysis has increasingly gone out of vogue. As share prices fall, so value emerges. But you'll only spot it if you are looking for it. And this means poring over the numbers, not chasing dreams. You can afford to keep it simple. Thoroughness will pay greater dividends than sloppy sophistication.

Beware false prophets

Nobody knows where markets are going - not me, not you, not Abby Cohen at Goldman Sachs or the anonymous authors of Lex in the Financial Times. Your view has as much or as little validity as anyone else's. Keep this in mind and, when your analysis tells you it's time to buy, you'll find you have the requisite bravery.

Don't shoot the analysts

The backlash against investment bank analysts is in full swing. Don't be diverted by the spectacle, however enjoyable it might appear. Use the research available dispassionately. As in all human life, you'll find there's good and bad there. Just be sure, once you've digested, to formulate your own conclusions.

Rebase to zero

Ignore charts of historic share price performance. How a company was valued at its peak is no guide to its value today. Those shares that have fallen furthest may yet have furthest to fall. Start with a blank sheet of paper - no prejudices or preconceptions - and build an investment argument that reflects today's reality as you perceive it.

Yield to temptation

Equities are but one tidbit on the investment smorgasbord. One way of comparing them with other asset classes is through their dividend yield. Seek out shares whose yields are approaching those on government bonds. Although unfashionable, this could prove the way back into the market with the least risk. Just be sure those dividends can be met out of the companies' profits.

Look for leverage

Courage mon brave! When you decide the time has come to invest, be sure to do so with conviction. Use leverage to your advantage - be prepared to borrow; consider the use of derivative instruments. You could be a hero of the next bull market, if only in your granny's eyes.

(Excerpt from Trading Rules from the Masters: Money-Making Lessons from 50 of the World's Experts. This piece is by Edmond Warner, chief executive of Old Mutual Securities.)

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Quote kvinodhan Replybullet Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 1:10am
Basantji...

I agree during such times we should look at companies with good valuations...which are the sort of companies you think which will start doing well during the next bull run...most of the sectors have to look up ...Real Estate & NBFC's may take a big beating .....Don't you think retail spending for consumers will go down in bear market and the retail companies will start feeling the pinch....with elections to follow in due course do you think we are in for a downside for a long term........good valuation what yardstick one needs to start checking on.......please advise


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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 1:40am
India isn't going to grow at less then 7% at the worst, finally the long term PE bottom is 11 times forward assumung that we account zero for subsidiaries the sensex has never pierced that valuation ever - kargil, 9/11 all kinds of adverse news flow has been handled at that PE.

We should do an Eps of Rs 1000 for fy09 and in 6 months we should be discounting the Fy10 Eps of Rs 1150.

That should be a great bench,mark to think of the bottom also bottoms are price points that we reach for moment and there is no compulsion to trade at that price what investors should ask is where they would be one year hence from now and my argument is - higher.

'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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