I believe we as investors keep re-learning the history... bubble, shock-awe, denial, realisation
and revulsion- the stages of a bear market post bubble...Over the last
5 years, there has been very little that has been done on policy front to
enable better infra or create a sustainable model of growth...Yes,
there has been a lot of hype from the current govt and effect of inertia of growth set in by
the last govt... Now its time to get out of the hype and back to
reality..
India's official literacy rate is around 60%, and even out of that 60%,
a large chunk lack quality education.. So we are a country which needs to
generate employment for masses on a sustainable basis. Now the only
sector which can accommodate such large scale people from unskilled and
semi-skilled portions of the popn. is manufacturing. In order to have a
vibant manufacturing sector, which can not only compete at home but also
abroad, we need sound infra and pro-business mindset in country.
Time is money and there should be low or no formal impediments to this
sector's growth.
All kind of policies(both political and economic) should be
framed in a comprehensive manner, with a single point objective of
building and growing a vibrant manuf. sector. Then as the sector grows,
it move up the value chain and become a magnet of global
capital and talent. China can be a case in point...
Services sector primarily serves the real sector and as the economy
transforms from developing to developed status, services as share of
total output increase. By then the large pool of population becomes more skilled
India, has got it wrong here.. With a large chunk of low or no skilled
workforce it has tried to create a services lead economic growth
model... As a result we have created immense disparity in the country.
The only real sector, which has been able to attract the large pool of
semi-skilled and no-skilled workforce has been the real estate sector. Too
much of cheap labour was supplied to a small industry. A a result what
we created was large scale overcapacity. Now with all signs of the
GREAT INDIAN REAL ESTATE BUBBLE COMING TO AN END, we will see large
scale unemployment in the unorganized sector... this will have an
adverse impact on social stability of the country....
SO ITS TIME TO GET OUR ECONOMIC MODEL RIGHT BEFORE WE MISS THE NEXT BUS TOO...