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Message Icon Topic: Diversified vs Concentrated Portfolios.. Post Reply Post New Topic
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 11/Mar/2008 at 9:06pm
I think one way in which one can fortify one's portfolio is by adequate diversification. I know, many will say what Buffett thinks of diversification. But, although I agree that diversification does indicate ignorance at times, all I want to ask, that by doing concentration are we not assuming we are experts, that we are not ignorant, that we know-all. I think concentration should be allowed naturally, when one of the stocks you have picked up goes on to become a powerhouse in your portfolio.
 
I think, by admitting that we are not experts, by accepting we are ignorant, that we dont all, can save us a lot from the pain. You should arrive at a concentrated portfolio after a period of time, achieved naturally rather than articially.
 
I know I will be made to look stupid but then I dont have any inhibition in accepting my stupidity.....I dont think I am intelligent, in any case.
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Janak.merchant1
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Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 11/Mar/2008 at 9:38pm
Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

I think one way in which one can fortify one's portfolio is by adequate diversification. I know, many will say what Buffett thinks of diversification. But, although I agree that diversification does indicate ignorance at times, all I want to ask, that by doing concentration are we not assuming we are experts, that we are not ignorant, that we know-all. I think concentration should be allowed naturally, when one of the stocks you have picked up goes on to become a powerhouse in your portfolio.
 
I think, by admitting that we are not experts, by accepting we are ignorant, that we dont all, can save us a lot from the pain. You should arrive at a concentrated portfolio after a period of time, achieved naturally rather than articially.
 
I know I will be made to look stupid but then I dont have any inhibition in accepting my stupidity.....I dont think I am intelligent, in any case.
 
Hi Vievk,
 
U r a wise man.
 
I'll give u my example and how the diversification works if the investments choosen are foolish or based on misplaced trust.
 
This is from 1997 to 2001 start. Invested in 1 co  and loaned to 12 different friends and relatives. Nobody paid and investment in Westinn Hospitality of Chennai became 0.
 
Diversification for the sake of it is meaningless.
 
What's your view?
 
Best wishes,
 
 
I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
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deepinsight
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Quote deepinsight Replybullet Posted: 11/Mar/2008 at 9:43pm
Vivekji:
 
There is no -ve's in diversification. Its advantage is well documented. The counter arguments to concentration is also well discussed. 8-10 companies already give adequate diversification if its different sectors, market caps, etc. 
 
BTW the benefits of diversification of lowering risk has also a consequence of lowering returns. At least that is coming out of statistical studies.
 
If we accept that we are not experts - then the attempt has to be made to learn to develop the expertise. (BTW - I think you are.) Till then for the rest of us, indexation or outsourcing stock selection to a good fund makes sense.
 
I know this may not be liked- but we would not trust a novice with a knife to do brain surgery - we would also not accept them to do a minor surgery. (read: big amounts or small amounts)
 
Why risk real capital without having an intent to become good at the task and belief of being an expert. If one is not willing to develop "expertise" - then the best bet is index funds where with low costs we capture average returns.
 
 
"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 11/Mar/2008 at 10:09pm
Hi Deep and Mr. Merchant,
 
I will take Deep's point first. I think, investing in MF doesnt make any sense in case one's aim is to learn investing. You cant learn to swim by seeing others swim, or trying to toe-test waters. You have to dive, the only thing you can do to protect, is to wear a jacket/tube of some sort. When applied to investing, it can mean investing in some recognised companies, premium type companies. I remember, even though Kabra extrusiontechnik was one of the first companies I did some work on in my college days, but it was an OBC where my dad allowed me to invest first. Because, he made it mandtory for me to invest in only A-group companies.When he started to feel that I am reasonably okay with my investments, he made me write 10 stocks where I will never be a seller until and unless a pecific price is reached. And i still remember what was my first stock in that list....it was none other than GE Shipping and the price I wrote against that was 275. But such training made me an extremely rigid person with respect to my style. Now, I simply cannot sleep with less than 200 stocks in my list.
 
All i intend to say is that one must groom oneself first before assuming he has any expertise in a field. Deep, I dont think returns has anything to do with diversification/concentration. Its more a matter of discipline, rather than concentration/diversification.
 
Now, I will reply to your point, Mr. Merchant. Anything for the sake of it, is a wrong practice, be it concentration or diversification. A day trader who just invests for a day and loses in the one company he choses for himself is also fooling himself by concentrating on that single 'gem'.
 
I think, the ultimate objective of any investment plan is to generate a cash flow, either immediately or after a period or to prepare it like a stream. This is where I believe most people go wrong. When one plans about his investment, just alongside he has to keep a cash flow ready. People dont know their risk capital, although they talk about appetite.
 
I know Mr. merchant, I wont be making any sense to you.....but nonetheless, I aim to learn by being a participant here rather than trade on paper.
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deepinsight
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Quote deepinsight Replybullet Posted: 11/Mar/2008 at 10:28pm
Vivekji:
Point taken. I also respect your perspective so its great -if it works. I also agree that one has to groom oneself.
 
Learning by doing is correct - but would you advise a novice on learning by doing a lot? (meaning a big portfolio).
 
You have obviously managed to build a ability to manage a very big portfolio. That's great. Did you start already with a very big portfolio very early? Did this lead to great returns? What was the key learning (other than being defense against mistakes)
 
My ealy gains were very concentrated in a handful of companies - I guess we become victoms of our success.
 
 
"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 16/Mar/2008 at 8:17pm
Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

Basant Sir, since you said that the last one is the most excellent, I have a simple question.....Isnt this sometimes too dangerous....????
 
I think one should always work out the consequences of failure before taking a huge plunge.I think this has to do a lot with the concentration theme.
 
Yes, concentrated portfolios suffer from something which we call event risk! Someday sometime it has the potential to get anyone. SO if yu are holding 4 stocks the ideal concentration would be to have 25% in each so even if you get hit by an event risk you lose 25% assuming that the others make up for each other.
 
Once you are in this game of betting big when it matters you will never be able to bet small and also betting big will save you from several problems beause you would have nightmares in trying to control risk.
 
Had I had a 30 stcoks portfolio I would have definetely bet on some of the brokerage stocks because I was always fascinated by their growth but risk control measures saved me from doing this.
 
Hence I chose to be with Yes and Axis and though they have fallen they are still above or equal to my purchase price (though purchase price matters nothging to me).
 
In fact in the excel sheet where I manage my portfolio their is no column for purchase price and profits. I want to be relieved of the baggae of purchase price which is of historical significance only.Smile
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 16/Mar/2008 at 8:48pm
To be very candid, inspired by you, even I am trying to practise concentration for all my incremental investment. Thats why I am trying to recognise the "The-Ten" for myself for my incremental investments. Although I sit with 200 cards, but then I believe if I continue to practise your style I may have 500 cards, but my significant exposure will be limited to about 10-20 stocks. ((The reason the number of stocks will go up is entirely because of my habit of making purchases like housewives purchase grocery. I dip-stick a lot and hence the increase in number. ))
 
Perhaps thats why, this year I have put my money in just a few companies. 


Edited by Vivek Sukhani - 16/Mar/2008 at 8:51pm
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Janak.merchant1
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Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 16/Mar/2008 at 9:20pm
Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

Hi Deep and Mr. Merchant,
 
All i intend to say is that one must groom oneself first before assuming he has any expertise in a field. Deep, I dont think returns has anything to do with diversification/concentration. Its more a matter of discipline, rather than concentration/diversification.
 
Now, I will reply to your point, Mr. Merchant. Anything for the sake of it, is a wrong practice, be it concentration or diversification.
 
Clap
I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
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