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Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Topic: Voltas - Targeting 4x revenues in 3 yrs !
    Posted: 28/Jan/2008 at 9:59pm
Voltas, a Tata group company, is a leading player in India's Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) market, having a ~28% market share in electromechanical projects. The company offers engineering solutions for a wide spectrum of industries in areas such as HVAC, refrigeration, electromechanical projects, textile machinery, machine tools, mining and construction equipment, materials-handling vehicles, water management, building management systems, indoor air quality and chemicals.
 
CMP: Rs.220
Market Cap: Rs.7274 crs
Revenues (9M FY08): Rs.2232 crs
EPS (FY07): Rs.5.62
EPS (9M FY08): Rs.4.62 (Q3 FY07 - Rs.2)
ROE (FY07): 38%
ROCE (FY07): 26.6%
EBIDTA margins: 8.3% in Q3FY08 (up from 4.8% in Q3 FY07)
Break-up: Electromechanical segment - 7.4% in Q3 FY08 (up from 5.1% YoY)
               Unitary cooling segment - 5.2% (Manufacturing opearations were shifted to Himachal Pradesh where it enjoys excise benefits, loss in Q3FY07)
              Engineering segment - 17.7% (down from 21.4% in FY07, Margins fell because engineering products earlier used to be a commission business, with no material costs, while it has now become a manufacturing business )
 
Order Book: Rs.3460 crs (up 44% YoY)
Break-up: International Market - Rs.2700 crs
               Domestic market - Rs.760 crs 
 
Electromechanical Segment
Voltas with an impressive track record of having executed contracts in 30 countries is an established MEP contractor in Middle East and part of South East Asia. The business potential of the amusement, leisure and entertainment industries in the Middle East is pegged above US$ 10 billion, excluding the land and the construction costs which experts are expecting to witness 27% CAGR for the next five years.Middle East contributed 26.3% of Voltas revenues in FY07. Voltas is one of the MEP sub-contractor for Burj Tower, World's Tallest high-rise building. Voltas has executed some prestigious projects like the Emirates Mall, the worlds biggest mall beyond North America, Hong Kong airport, Emirates Palace Hotel to name a few.
 
Unitary Cooling Segment
This segment consists of room air conditioner, water coolers, water dispensers and commercial refrigerator. Voltas has a 16% share in this market.
 
Engineering Segment
This is a trading business where it markets products of its principals besides its own manufactured forklift trucks. It supplies engineering and capital equipment such as mining and construction equipment, textile equipments, machine tools to various segments.
 
 
Recommendation: Company has given a guidance of Rs10,000 crore turnover and NPM at 10% by FY11 which results into 4 times growth in revenues and 400bps increase in NPM in 3 years. The new civil aviation policy is expected to result in 35-40 new airports. Many real estate companies have made public their plans to make five star hotels. Many corporate hospitals, software parks, organized retail and muliplexes are coming up all over the country. The demand will be huge. At Rs 220, the stock trades at about 24x FY09E. Voltas is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 55% in the next two-three years.
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 28/Jan/2008 at 10:15pm
Thanks for the introduction Devesh jee.
 
Even after the current carnage, is it still trading at 24X FY09 EPS? Seems a bit pricey for me. I would try getting an entry around a forward PE of not more than 18 and that comes to a price around 165. There are other plays around too for a >55% CAGR but available at lower forward PE.
 
Just my 2 cents, hope it is okay my sharing and no offence meant to anyone!
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nitin_jagtap
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Quote nitin_jagtap Replybullet Posted: 28/Jan/2008 at 11:00pm
Voltas would command a premium compared to say a bluestar or hitachi one reason being their diverse portfolio of services that they offer.
 
Below are result highlights for Q3
 
  • Topline grows 17% YoY during 3QFY08, 31% YoY during 9mFY08. Growth led by strong performances from engineering agency and unitary cooling businesses.
  • Operating margins surge from 4.8% in 3QFY07 to 8.3% in 3QFY08. Lower raw material and other costs aid this expansion.

  • Expansion in operating margin coupled with lower interest costs and higher extraordinary income aid strong growth at the net profit level. Excluding the extraordinary effect, net profit growth still stands at a strong 120% YoY during 3QFY08.

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    omshivaya
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    Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 28/Jan/2008 at 11:33pm
    Sorry to butt in again. If the rate of growth(anticipated for next 3 years) is 60%, then 18 forward PE is a great entry.
     
    Since I know very less about Voltas...if someone is expecting a much better growth rate for next 3 years, simply multiply that growth rate with 0.3
     
    This would ideally  be the forward PE I shall pay for buying any business with enough margin of safety(in case the earnings underperform from what one projects). That being said, things aren't always ideal in the world.
     
    Hope this helps if anyone wants to buy into this business. Voltas is a good company is all I know, from the user experience I have had of using its AC.


    Edited by omshivaya - 28/Jan/2008 at 11:43pm
    The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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    swapan
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    Quote swapan Replybullet Posted: 28/Jan/2008 at 11:19am
    Along with Blue star this is a great company, I have long been optimistic on both of them . 
     
    Voltas I think is more well diversified than Blue Star. Also it is Tata managment.
     
    Below is earnings predicted by equitymaster. (I belive EPS predictions are on the conservative side)
     
     
    Rs m) FY07 FY08E FY09E FY10E
    Revenue (Rs m) 25,268 34,520 45,401 57,730
    PAT (Rs m) 2,016 2,706 3,646 4,770
    EPS (Rs) 6.1 8.2 11.0 14.4
    P/E (x) 39.3 29.3 21.7 16.6
    Price to BV (x) 18.7 13.2 9.4 6.9
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    deveshkayal
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    Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 29/Jan/2008 at 1:23pm
    Revenue visibility, excellent ROE's and ROCE's and a great management will never make this stock look cheap.
    "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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    basant
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    Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 29/Jan/2008 at 2:54pm
    Along with being an engineering and a cooling company Voltas has plans for aggressively getting into the cold storage/warehousing segment.
     
    I think this is a fabolous business to own.
     
    Devesh any idea where you read that management target in terms of topline and bottomline targets.
     
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    sandeeptulsiyan
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    Quote sandeeptulsiyan Replybullet Posted: 29/Jan/2008 at 3:26pm
    I completely agree with you basant. India is the econd largest producer of fruits & vegetables, but its sad to know that about 43% of this production is wasted as it lacks cold storage/warehousing facilities. Only about 1.3% of fruits and vegetables get processed in India while this number is about 70% in the US.

    Currently, cold storage exists only in 9% of markets. Also, the infrastructure for cold storage is outdated and is primarily designed for storing only potatoes and potato seeds.

    Bluestar is currently having multi-projects in this area,while Voltas is still to explore it. But, due to hurdles like real estate prices(as cold storages require huge space, a typical cold storage of 500MT capacity will require at least 500 sq m of land ) it is difficult for the company to enter into it easily. Government subsidy in the XIth plan will provide some help.

    Also, the onset of major retail players like Walmart, Carefour, Sears,Tesco will boost the demand for this business segment. Government has in store plans for building Mega food Parks(30 of them are already in the pipeline) & Agri-Export Zones which will further swell demand for cold storages.

    Hence,I will stay bullish on this stock and gather it as much as I can.

    Thanks omshivaya,
    that was truly some gyaan i wasnt aware of. I will try and apply it to the stocks which i track. Thanks once again.



    Edited by sandeeptulsiyan - 29/Jan/2008 at 3:32pm
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