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Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
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monu_duggad
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Quote monu_duggad Replybullet Topic: Credit Policy @ 31-10-06
    Posted: 27/Oct/2006 at 5:07pm
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That time of the year again..when Mr Reddy will announce his eagerly awaited credit policy....
 
Will he go for int rate hike ?...Pause (a-la-Bernanke) ? Can he afford to pause,with inflation at 5.26 %,with credit growth at whopping 30-34 % on sizable base ?
 
What do you think....lets discuss it...
 
It can have a salutory impact on stock markets if he decides to pause....on the contrary, if he goes for a hike..may be banking stocks will come under pressure...wht say Basantjee ? What r your expectations...
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 29/Oct/2006 at 9:31pm

Very interesting quote from Buffet on this:

If Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan were to whisper to me what his monetary policy was going to be over the next two years, it wouldn't change one thing I do. --- Warren Buffett
Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 30/Oct/2006 at 3:28pm
Kulmanji is back to his old ways! I would be thank ful if Greenspan would whisper in Buffet's ears because if he screams the global equities would start tanking - Remember June.
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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BubbleVision
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 30/Oct/2006 at 3:43pm

As of now the Indian Bond Market does NOT expect a rate hike but the Indian Rupee has shown huge strength in the last few days (May be some in Currencies do expect a hike).

Possiable Sanerios:
Rate Hike:
Rupee rallies further....
Stock Market (may be) falls 1-2% led by Banks which could lose 4-5% (with small psu banks taking the brunt of the selloff)
Bonds ... fall big time
 
2) No Rate hike
Rupee takes a much needed correction.
Stock Market continue with their merry ways by going up further (Led by banks and IT)
Bonds - no impact really, or a small rally.
 
I for one think that there would NOT be any rate hike..... as DRRerry is heavily influenced by Ben "Helicopter" Bernankie.
 
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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BubbleVision
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 30/Oct/2006 at 3:50pm
GREENSPAN does not matter actually... what ever he speaks the opposite happens... Rembemner... the (in)famous quote about "Irritional exuburence" of Nasdaq in 1996 when it was near 1000. Then the market went up to 5000, in Jan 2000 when he went on record to state "Markets are in perfectly fine shape"... There is no bubble...
 
I regard him and Stephen Roach as a contrarian indicator really.
Infact 3 days ago Greenspan spoke that the Dollar is going down...Let us see what happens.
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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monu_duggad
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Quote monu_duggad Replybullet Posted: 30/Oct/2006 at 7:02pm
Bubblebhai
 
Inflation is at high level....credit growth at 29 %...money supply growth at 19 % against target of 15 %....reddy might want to preempt further inflation pressure by hiking one more time....
 
Wot say ?
 
On the contrary..fuel prices significantly lower from july levels....as u said mr ben bernanke paused....he might not want to play party pooper for Dalal Street !!
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BubbleVision
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 30/Oct/2006 at 7:21pm
First of all You have just said what Lata said on CNBC....
 
Money supply have been rising in India since 2001 relentlessly... hoever we have had rate cuts and rate hikes...
I dont think the RBI will think of being a party maker or a party pooper for dalal street as Rates influence every one (Dalal street is just 2% of them). IMO they should NOT think of reactions on dalal street for their decilsion.
 
They should do what is right and NOT what is comfortable
 
 
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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