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 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Fundamental
Message Icon Topic: TheEquityDesk XI - Year 2007 Performance Post Reply Post New Topic
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tigershark
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 7:09am
everybody in his /her investing career will get that one or two yrs of mind blowing returns,but what is important is to get a reasonable rate of return for your entire investing  lifetime..in a bull mkt execess as posted above are not uncommon but when the tide turns even lets say by 10% then it becomes interesting to see whose naked and who still has his trunks on.
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 11:00am
everybody in his /her investing career will get that one or two yrs of mind blowing returns
 
I guess this statement comes from experience. And I see this all the time with fund managers/ individual funds. JM Basic might have done well in 2007 but I wonder how they will perform in 2008 and 2009. Mr Subramanian of Franklin Prima/Prima Plus used to do extremely well in 2005/2006 but is now nowhere to be seen.
 
But why is it a rarity for mind blowing to continue over a longer period of time? Luck runs out? Or does following the strategy used in 2006 won't work in 2008?
 
Do we need to keep changing the way we invest every 3 years?
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 12:02pm

You need market timing skills as Bubble says for those explosive sort of skills and mix it up well with your fundamental studies to stretch it to the maximum....

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nitin_jagtap
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Quote nitin_jagtap Replybullet Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 12:04pm

The gold standard would be a 20-25 CAGR returns over a long horizon through various market cycles.

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sunlight
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Quote sunlight Replybullet Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 2:07pm
Congrats TED on this performance.  A special thanks to Basantji, smart catji, deveshji, vivekji for changing the way we invest & making us more knowledgeable.
 
I am sure TED will do better in 2008.  Basantji is way ahead on identifying financial sector as a star performers for next 2-3 years.  2009 banking sector reforms will be a major event.  So, we will reap the benefits on Yes Bank, CBoP, etc.
 
CNBC Broker's poll has come out today. 100% of the brokers are bullish on banking sector whereas only 33% are bullish on power sector. Remember power sector was the star performer in 2007. If someone maintains an overweight portfolio on power sector, their portfolio may underperform in 2008!!!!
 
One of the underperformers of 2007 Dish TV will perform well in 2008 and the indications are already out in Dec'07 with stock rallying over 45%.
 
Also tune in for changes in TED from Basantji.
 
 
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 4:16pm
only 33% are bullish on power sector. Remember power sector was the star performer in 2007. If someone maintains an overweight portfolio on power sector, their portfolio may underperform in 2008!!!!
 
Power sector picked up steam only in late 2007. Craze for a sector rarely gets over in 3 months. 2008 could still remain the year for power stocks.
 
Generally, once the investors are done with popular large caps like Rel Energy, Reliance Power, Tata Power, GMR etc, they will start looking at other existing players in the sector. Atleast that's what I'm hoping for!
 
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sunlight
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Quote sunlight Replybullet Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 4:28pm
Originally posted by smartcat

only 33% are bullish on power sector. Remember power sector was the star performer in 2007. If someone maintains an overweight portfolio on power sector, their portfolio may underperform in 2008!!!!
 
Power sector picked up steam only in late 2007. Craze for a sector rarely gets over in 3 months. 2008 could still remain the year for power stocks.
 
Generally, once the investors are done with popular large caps like Rel Energy, Reliance Power, Tata Power, GMR etc, they will start looking at other existing players in the sector. Atleast that's what I'm hoping for!
 
 
Smarcatji - in the NDTV broker's poll, Reliance Energy came out as the top stock the brokers will SELL in 2008.  I agree that sectors do not go out of favor in 6 months.  But we are living in crazy times, where sensex returns in past 6 months is more than 25%. May be some more steam left in power stocks.
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 10:01pm
Craze in Power stocks will remain till RPL listing.
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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