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Message Icon Topic: Margin of Safety- Aargument for purchase. Post Reply Post New Topic
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Topic: Margin of Safety- Aargument for purchase.
    Posted: 03/Aug/2006 at 10:21pm
You will very rarely hear fundamental anayst speaking about margin of safety.Actually its nothing but the difference between price and the book value of the stock.actually, people rarely talk about book values in a bull market... it is a thing which they start talking about all of a sudden, when they have seen a collapse. I have always had a fancy for this measure for it makes me feel that i am buying present and not future. I mean a stock which has a low P/E and a very decent book value offers tremendous opportunity.
 
Let me prove this through an illustration:
 
Suppose a stock is trading at 100 and has a P/E of 5. Assume its Book Value to be 80.
 
As P/E is 5, therefore EPS =20.
price to BV =100/80=1.25
 
Let P to BV be hel constant=1.25
 
Assuming no dividend, the accretion to BV for the year will be 20.
 
Therefore, P1=1.25(80+20)=125.
 
Assuming same EPS, P2=1.25(80+20+20)=150.
 
which shows, that the downside is fairly limited....
 
So, why not apply this logic?????
 


Edited by basant - 07/Jun/2008 at 6:41pm
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 03/Aug/2006 at 1:26am

The Price to book thesis is good only in parts. By restricting himself through the book value to price ratio an investor will not be able to keep any of the present day blue chips in his portfolio. Only Bank stocks can be safely evaluated through the Price to adjusted book ratio (Book value - NPA's). For other stocks book value  provides only historical data as to what the company has done and does not say what it can or will do in future.

A company like AP Paper mills was available at below book value 5 years back and is also available at that level now so it has been difficult for investors to make money on that logic alone.In fact on real rate basis investors have lost moeny in such stocks.

I have tried to compare the Price to book value of 20 of the blue chips. Please note that the weightage is skewed in favour of MNC companies since investors who do not chase growth have a fancy for MNC stocks.

What a book value does is  protect downside. That too is not certain most of the time the values reflected are very different from the ground values. Only in cases of investments and real estate the book value thesis comes to any use.On the other hand a low Price to Book ratio does not guarantee you any upside in stock prices either. Over a period of time markets will pay for growth only. I doubt if anyone has been able to catch a multibagger going through the Price to book ratio alone.

These blue chips trade at far higher price to  book ratios. Please note that except the PSU Banks all other stocks are in a Price to book range of 2 to 26. So while Price to book is a good measure its reliance is good only in parts and it cannot be used to forecast the movement in stock prices as effectively as the PEG or the RoE.

Company

Price

Book Value

Price to book Ratio

Bank of Baroda         

228

233

 0.97

S.BI                           

820

709

 1.15

PNB

388

333

 1.17

ICICI Bank

542

264

 2.05

HDFC Bank                

780

212

 3.67

Maruti

773

192

 4.02

Bajaj Auto

2540

471

 5.39

Hero Honda

695

123

 5.65

Gillette

750

106

 7.50

Satyam

750

99

 7.57

Tata Motors

760

100

 7.60

ITC

169

21

 8.00

P&G

880

70

12.50

Wipro

500

36

13.88

Bharti

370

26

14.23

HLL

228

16

14.25

Infosys

1651

95

17.37

Colgate

380

20

19.00

Dabur

135

6

23.00

TCS

900

34

26.50

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                     Source : Dalal Street
 
Moreover a low Price to  book ratio means a low PE and a low RoE. this is so because companies earning high RoE will always get a high Pe and consequently the price will be bid up several times the book value. 
 
Moreover a low RoE also means that the company is not using its capital efficiently.


Edited by basant - 03/Aug/2006 at 1:29am
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Quote shuchi Replybullet Posted: 03/Aug/2006 at 8:31am

I feel , if we go by the fundametal  of buying a stock , just because it has a low PE and a decent book value , many a times we may eleminate the chance of buying a good company.

For example :

 

Company

Market Price

Book Value

Price to Book value

Divis labrratories

1500

380

4.0

Dr. Reddy

1400

270

5.2

ABB

209

2450

11.8

Havell's

18

300

16.5

 

It doesn’t mean that these stocks are not worth a buy just because of its low book value. 

I think to buy a stock we should first look at its business model , and growth prospects, and then the financials to make a decision . Moreover , we can make the best use of the financials while comparing stocks in a particular sector . 



Edited by basant - 03/Aug/2006 at 8:48am
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 03/Aug/2006 at 8:40am
Yes and in the year 2000 a lot of Psu's were available at less then book value and they went up not because they were available at lessthen book value but because of changing business dynamics and more importantly the disinvestment news in many of these PSU's led to their re rating..
 
BEML went up because of huge infrastructure spending, SCI was facing an upcycle in its core shipping business, crude went up so did ONGC and HPCL, BPCL never did anything because the Govt squeezed them ech time they got a chance. BPCL, Chennai Petroleum and Bongaigaon refinery all have book values of Rs 217, 176 and Rs 46. The price of these stocks is hardly two times their book yet they have been the dogs in the past two years. 
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 04/Aug/2006 at 10:02pm
I am simply trying to bring objectivity into the trade. See, there are people who look the stock deom pure finacials point of view, and I subscribe to their view.I was reading a book at Crossroad today, wherein a successful trader  was being interviewed and he said risk-aversion is indeed a great virtue as far as stocks go.Mr. Basant, there was a reason why I wanted price points fpr Inox Leisure.Actually, I want to know how Price To value(not book-value) is shaping up at various entry points.I beleive, we need to being in more objectivity into our analysis.Otherwise this will become a forum for prophesies and lectures.I mean no insult, jyst that I intend to being in more objectivity into our arguments.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 04/Aug/2006 at 10:37pm

Different people will have different entry points because their capacity to take on risks in terms of notional losses differ. So let us leave it for the investor to decide his entry points.

 

We do put forward the financials of all stocks that are discussed. I did that for TV 18, for Trent, for Inox and for all companies that I commented. See we cannot recommend target prices and buy prices that is for the investor to decide all we can say is whether the stock is closer to being becoming cheap or costly. If it is closer to becoming cheap who knows why it cannot become cheaper and vice versa.

 

This example will clear things for you. A lot of people I know bought TV 18 at Rs 160 along with me but had booked profits in the Rs 350 - Rs 400 region.  Two months back the price shot up to Rs 700 + most of them wanted to buy it back and then decided that it should be bought on declines. When it fell down to Rs 500 I thought that it was as steal and called up people to buy more if they wanted to. They bought and the stock tanked to Rs 320!

 

So how do you set entry points? Setting entry points is entirely up to the investor. I cannot advise any body as to what price he can buy. This is so because in an open forum like this I am not aware on anybody's risk taking capacity nor is that the idea of this forum. More over I do provide my recommendation at the end of each report I do and it is for the investor to take it from there.

 

We can only put down the financials and business models of the company stating the forward potential. If some one asks whether a PE of x times makes sense or not we can put it up for discussion but investing is an art not a science so fixing either buy or sell levels cannot be done. However technical chartists do have a set of entry points but that is outside the realm of my competence and interest.

 

And I  draw strong exception to your quote "become a forum for prophesies and lectures". We are here to discuss experiences and not share wisdom. if you have read my post on how to identify the next Infosys you will understand what I am referring to. Any argument that is backed by data is neither a prophecy nor a lecture arguments that are not are surely more then that.

 

Take a look at this now, Fidelity bought a huge stake in ENIL at Rs 260 and that made some sense to me. When the price fell to 220 it made more sense today it is at 180 and it makes even more sense but who knows it can come down to 120 and then people who bought at Rs 180 would think that they overpaid.

 

And finally, if you could help us with identifying those points then surely it would be great!

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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 04/Aug/2006 at 10:54pm

 Points of entry can be had both technically as well as fundamentally. We myst not get into recommendation business at all, I agree in totality. Yet, being a netutral person and an active member, I beleive we need to have some place for technical chartists as well. A blend of the two is always useful. At the back of all trades, there are technicals. They provide so much objectivity into decosion making, and thats what I beleive we should have it as a purpose at the back of our find. Getting a fundamentally strong company is the necessary condiyion for a successful trade, but the sufficient condition is to get it technically correct, to reap the profits?

 
P.S.-Kindly transfer this post to appropraiate forum
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