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Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
 The Equity Desk Forum :Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios! :Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
Message Icon Topic: India Infoline - Its All About Money,Hone Post Reply Post New Topic
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Topic: India Infoline - Its All About Money,Hone
    Posted: 25/Nov/2007 at 3:59pm
CMP: Rs 1119
Market Cap: Rs. 5975 crs
PBT FY08: Rs 1.8 - 2 bn
Revenues FY08: Rs 7-7.5 bn
EPS FY07: Rs 12.85
ROE FY07: 18.26%
Market share: 3.3%
Avg. daily turnover: Rs 2100 crs
Branches: 596 in 345 cities
Fully diluted equity after accounting for the warrants that are going to be issued in January 2009 and ESOPS will be around Rs66 Crores and plus incremental new ESOP scheme . As on date equity is Rs53 crores.
Revenue contribution from various businesses:
Brokerage : 56%
Insurance : 15%
Commodities, Merchant banking and Mutual funds : 29%
 
Chairman: Nirmal Jain - IIM-A Alumnus
 
Retail broking:
India Infoline has around 3 lakh custumers. It has a tie-up with Bank of Baroda for e-broking.
 
Institutional broking
India Infoline has roped in Bharat Parajia, director of sales at CLSA in Singapore, H Nemkumar, CLSA's country head for India, Aniruddha Dange, CLSA's head of research in India, and Vasudev Jagannath, CLSA's head of sales in India. While Parajia will join as head of institutional sales at India Infoline, Dange will be head of research and Nemkumar head of investment banking. 
 
Each one of them is bringing in more than 10 years of experience with a top institutional brokerage in Asia. The CLSA foursome will also pick up stakes in India Infoline through the preferential allotment route. Their collective stake would add up to around 15%. Parajia already holds a 2.88% stake in India Infoline. He will subscribe to 25 lakh equity warrants at Rs 440 each.Nemkumar will pick up another 25 lakh, while Jagannath and Aniruddha Dange will subscribe to 20 lakh warrants each. The preferential allotment includes the four men buying 90 lakh equity warrants at a price of Rs 440 each, of which 10% will be paid up front as their sign-on bonus. The remaining will be payable at the end of eighteen months when the warrants will be convertible into shares.That is, all these guys will have to cough up about Rs 360 crore to convert their warrants into shares. Currently, the company's institutional equities team has 35 people, including research analysts and dealers.

Consumer Finance:

During the quarter, it managed a book size of Rs 25 crore and has suffered a loss of Rs 5.5 crore. It expects to break even in 2-3 quarters. NIM of 6-8% on personal loans and 3-4% on home refinancing. It is looking at a Rs 200 crore private-equity funding for its consumer finance subsidiary. It intends to leverage its extensive branch network to expand its consumer finance division to tier-II and tier-III cities in the coming quarters. India Infoline is going slow as it has just started this business with a robust risk management system. The company has roped in experts from Citi Financial and other banks.



Edited by basant - 28/Nov/2007 at 8:26am
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 25/Nov/2007 at 4:09pm

Future of India Infoline depends on CLSA guys. Investment managers plays a key role in Capital Markets. Aditya Birla Group recently hired Ajay Srinivasan and Pankaj Rajdhan of ICICI Pru is a testimonial to the fact.

Every businesses can be scaled up significantly from here.
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 25/Nov/2007 at 4:38pm
Very well articulated. But do you think there is enough left from the current prices though over the long term this company would do well without a doubt?
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bgkochar
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Quote bgkochar Replybullet Posted: 25/Nov/2007 at 5:19pm

i know abt niram jain,nem kumar and bharat parajia. they are genius but i have same question that do u think there is enough left?

i habe one more quest that all brokerage firm are quoting at 40-60 pe,is it justified,i know that after stovk mkt reform mkt  turnover will be much much more,but competition will also come from  foreign brokerage also.

what is your view on brokerage firms,
basantji i need your views also.
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Quote shivkumar Replybullet Posted: 25/Nov/2007 at 6:35pm
Companies like indiainfoline will face tough competition from brokerages like Reliance Money. Already a few like HDFCSECURITIES have had to reduce fees following RM's onslaught.

RM charges a mere one paisa commission on every trade though take Rs 500 upfront from users. I think for renewals they charge something like Rs 2500 for Rs one crore worth trade or six months whichever is earlier. Though RM could create problems for investors who buy and hold for long time, short-term traders will make hay from RM.

So brokerages like Indiainfoline, ICICI Direct, etc will have to work hard to retain customers.

Much depends on the abilities of the brokerages to get you shares of companies that are not traded in large nos. For instance, I couldn't get shares in Forbes Gokak and Sanghvi Movers using my RM account. The RM account even refused to place an order for these shares.

Subsequently, I had to buy shares in these companies from HDFC Securities. So if Indiainfoline and Religare are planning on brokerage fees to shore up their revenues, then there will be tears to shed when the fees fall.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 25/Nov/2007 at 7:10pm
Originally posted by bgkochar

What is your view on brokerage firms,

basantji i need your views also.
 
They are cyclicals. Tell me a brokerage stock that  has doubled when the index has fallen. There are several other sectors which do well even when the index falls but brokers are always undercutting each other unless there is a special niche about them and the only niche that brokers have is lower brokerage.
 
So if Geojit is a 5 bagger the index would surely be a 3 bagger is the premise that I work on . Stable or declining prices always affect volumes which in turn affect profits.
 
 
 


Edited by basant - 25/Nov/2007 at 7:13pm
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 25/Nov/2007 at 7:44pm

At CMP, India Infoline is trading at a FY09 PE of 40, so the upside is limited.

As for competition, India Infoline increased its market share by 10% to 3.3% from 3%.
 
Nirmal Jain wants to make India Infoline a financial powerhouse. He says in 3 years, institutional broking share will be equal to retail broking share in the overall revenues. Wealth Management, Asset Management will start contributing to the topline in FY09 significantly.
 
Equity dilution of about 25% in FY09 is a negative but that will be offset by increased revenues from institutional broking.
 
Prof.Mankekar have increased his holdings to 18.75 lakhs from 15.95 lakhs. BCCL holds 2.2% stake. Mutual Funds too have increased their holdings in Oct'07.
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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bgkochar
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Quote bgkochar Replybullet Posted: 25/Nov/2007 at 7:49pm
i think everybody is betting on bharat and nem,they are genius.
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