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Mamta
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Quote Mamta Replybullet Topic: Twelve basic Investing rules you need to remembe!
    Posted: 30/Jul/2006 at 7:51pm

Twelve Basic Stock Investing Rules Every Successful Investor Should Follow

There are many important things you need to know to trade and invest successfully in the stock market or any other market. 12 of the most important things that I can share with you based on many years of trading experience are enumerated below.

1. Buy low-sell high. As simple as this concept appears to be, the vast majority of investors do the exact opposite. Your ability to consistently buy low and sell high, will determine the success, or failure, of your investments. Your rate of return is determined 100% by when you enter the stock market.

2. The stock market is always right and price is the only reality in trading. If you want to make money in any market, you need to mirror what the market is doing. If the market is going down and you are long, the market is right and you are wrong. If the stock market is going up and you are short, the market is right and you are wrong.

Other things being equal, the longer you stay right with the stock market, the more money you will make. The longer you stay wrong with the stock market, the more money you will lose.

3. Every market or stock that goes up will go down and most markets or stocks that have gone down, will go up. The more extreme the move up or down, the more extreme the movement in the opposite direction once the trend changes. This is also known as "the trend always changes rule."

4. If you are looking for "reasons" that stocks or markets make large directional moves, you will probably never know for certain. Since we are dealing with perception of markets-not necessarily reality, you are wasting your time looking for the many reasons markets move.

A huge mistake most investors make is assuming that stock markets are rational or that they are capable of ascertaining why markets do anything. To make a profit trading, it is only necessary to know that markets are moving - not why they are moving. Stock market winners only care about direction and duration, while market losers are obsessed with the whys.

5. Stock markets generally move in advance of news or supportive fundamentals - sometimes months in advance. If you wait to invest until it is totally clear to you why a stock or a market is moving, you have to assume that others have done the same thing and you may be too late.

You need to get positioned before the largest directional trend move takes place. The market reaction to good or bad news in a bull market will be positive more often than not. The market reaction to good or bad news in a bear market will be negative more often than not.

6. The trend is your friend. Since the trend is the basis of all profit, we need long term trends to make sizeable money. The key is to know when to get aboard a trend and stick with it for a long period of time to maximize profits. Contrary to the short term perspective of most investors today, all the big money is made by catching large market moves - not by day trading or short term stock investing.

7. You must let your profits run and cut your losses quickly if you are to have any chance of being successful. Trading discipline is not a sufficient condition to make money in the markets, but it is a necessary condition. If you do not practice highly disciplined trading, you will not make money over the long term. This is a stock trading “system” in itself.

8. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is fallacious and is actually a derivative of the perfect competition model of capitalism. The Efficient Market Hypothesis at root shares many of the same false premises as the perfect competition paradigm as described by a well known economist.

The perfect competition model is not based on anything that exists on this earth. Consistently profitable professional traders simply have better information - and they act on it. Most non-professionals trade strictly on emotion, and lose much more money than they earn.

The combination of superior information for some investors and the usual panic as losses mount caused by buying high and selling low for others, creates inefficient markets.

9. Traditional technical and fundamental analysis alone may not enable you to consistently make money in the markets. Successful market timing is possible but not with the tools of analysis that most people employ.

If you eliminate optimization, data mining, subjectivism, and other such statistical tricks and data manipulation, most trading ideas are losers.

10. Never trust the advice and/or ideas of trading software vendors, stock trading system sellers, market commentators, financial analysts, brokers, newsletter publishers, trading authors, etc., unless they trade their own money and have traded successfully for years.

Note those that have traded successfully over very long periods of time are very few in number. Keep in mind that Wall Street and other financial firms make money by selling you something - not instilling wisdom in you. You should make your own trading decisions based on a rational analysis of all the facts.

11. The worst thing an investor can do is take a large loss on their position or portfolio. Market timing can help avert this much too common experience.

You can avoid making that huge mistake by avoiding buying things when they are high. It should be obvious that you should only buy when stocks are low and only sell when stocks are high.

Since your starting point is critical in determining your total return, if you buy low, your long term investment results are irrefutably better than someone that bought high.

12. The most successful investing methods should take most individuals no more than four or five hours per week and, for the majority of us, only one or two hours per week with little to no stress involved



Edited by basant - 30/Jul/2006 at 9:13pm
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 30/Jul/2006 at 8:09pm
Those were real pearls of wisdom. Well, if you want to read something that can compare with the ideas set out above read this link. It has the gospels from the master  trader Jesse Livermore. It is an experience reading his biography " Remininces of a stock operator."
 
 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote pramodjain Replybullet Posted: 21/Nov/2007 at 10:24pm

simple tips to handle volatile markets

2007-11-05 17:32:19 Source : Moneycontrol

15000 index levels followed by subprime fallout and most brokerage houses, hedge funds and majority participants in the stock market were acting as if the Indian story had come to an end. Brokerage houses and most prominently international ones appear to be so gloomy that one would have thought that the index would touch 10000 in a matter of weeks. Exactly few weeks down the line some stupid decision of the Federal Reserve because of reasons best known to all spurs the capital markets all around the world. Suddenly brokerage houses see Gold in India and go gaga over how wonderful Indian markets are. One wonders what has really happened in the few weeks to warrant a change in fundamentals and recommendations. Was the subprime mess going to cause the Indian economy to grow at 4% and if not how does a 50 bps cut ensure that all is fine now. These events generally end up causing more confusion than giving any clear direction if at all.

< ="http://202.87.40.52/promos/sponsor_news.js"> When the going is good, all are bulls and you can see most of the foreign brokerage houses doing a happy song and dance sequence about the new peaks that the Sensex and Nifty can scale and how more and more money is entering the Indian markets. When the markets take a reverse turn, everyone becomes a bear and you will be considered unfashionable not to be on television and rant reasons for doom. Experts who disappear during rallies suddenly appear on the circuit and start their gloom gyan again. All this compounds the confusion existing in the mind of investors as to what they should be doing.

The uncertainty that we have seen so far is called Risk and equity markets have always behaved in this fashion. So it should not be a surprise that the markets are going up and down quite occasionally. This is the nature of the equity markets. But it’s difficult to discount the gloom gurus on television and bloodbath as given in the media reports of investors losing several lakh crore.

This reminds me of a couple I had come across several years back. At one of the cocktails parties, the host was going on and on about the fabulous profits he had made investing in certain technology stocks like DSQ Software and others like HFCL. The couple felt like fools not having these stocks as a part of their portfolio. Though their portfolio was doing quite well, they were tempted to invest in these gems purely looking at the returns.

They called up their broker the very next day and bought these stocks. The history is on the wall as these stocks collapsed beyond imaginations and they lost almost 80% of their portfolio by running after returns. History repeats itself and this couple that had sworn never to touch equities again were tempted by seeing the tempting returns of the equity markets in the last few years and entered the markets again in 2005. Happy and confident with their performance of 2005, took very risky calls that once again led to their portfolio declining by 50% in 2006. Once again they swore never to enter the equity markets only to enter again at 19200 levels. Well the jury will be out on this one as to what happens next?

So what is the moral of the story? Infact there are several ones

1.       Understand the consequences of failure or risk on your portfolio. Before that what is your definition of risk. Does risk mean volatility, loss of principal or loss of opportunity? To me risk means that your expected returns are not achieved and such risk exists in all forms of investments but are existent very evidently and dangerously in the equity markets. Someone who had invested in PPF in early part of the 21st century thinking he would get 12% perpetually would have been in for a rude shock when PPF interest rates were reduced. This is also a form of risk but the risk that most people are worried about is the risk of losing ones capital.

2.       Never base your investment decisions on how well your friend, family or colleagues are doing. Your situation is unique and only after you have clarity of your liquidity needs, tax situation, risk behavior, risk capacity and time horizon can you take any prudent decisions.

3.       Never base your decisions to enter into equities based on past performance. Just because Indian economy seems to be rocking and that the last few years have generated in excess of 40% p.a. does not mean that you will earn the same returns in the future. There have been several reports of people being promised 30-40% returns from equities p.a for the next 5 years. Nothing can be further from the truth and I can stick my neck out and say that such returns in the next 5 years is just wishful thinking.

4.       Anchor your base to more realistic returns. Seeing returns of 40% in the last several years, some people have come to expect that they are conservative in expecting at least 25% from equities.  This is once again a myth and you will do more harm than good by taking decisions on such unrealistic assumptions.

5.       Just do not enter the markets because you have missed the bus because there will be opportunities for those who have missed it. Just make sure that when opportunities are presented enter the markets and don’t wait for a bottom to be formed but stagger your investments over several days, weeks or months. This is a market to be bought on dips and unless and until somebody (subprime, oil prices and political risks) rocks the boat, the markets could tread higher. Fundamentally the markets are already trading at 20 times FY09 earnings and there could possibly be no fundamental logic to the whole rally and why it could not go upwards from here. Markets are not always fundamental in the short term and can get very euphoric as witnessed in the past, so tread with caution and stagger your investments as mentioned above.

Finally do not panic and make radical changes to your portfolio. Do a review of your situation, needs and portfolio and see how you can make adjustments to your portfolio if any. Whatever you do in the end, your ability to sleep well during volatile times is paramount.

Federal Reserve is meeting again today and the market is once again anticipating a 25-basis cut (which most participants feel has already been factored in the prices). A 50 bps cut which could be possible considering the Fed’s understanding of the mess US is in, could trigger yet another rally in the emerging markets and we could see some more levels being breached. On the other hand if there is no rate cut, markets could correct and better opportunities could be presented.

Like they say, “If the Feds sneeze, the US market catches cold”. I would say that even Emerging markets are affected by the Fed sneezes and yawns and the impact of these actions would be for all to see shortly. Don’t get too carried away by all the news around you, as you will never be able to understand and digest how several market participants could behave reacting to different sets of news in very short periods of time. Focus on your investment strategy and if necessary have cash handy as a part of your overall portfolio and buy on every 5% declines.

Happy Diwali and have a Healthy, Wealthy and Prosperous New Year ahead!!

- Amar Pandit

The author is a practising Certified Financial Planner. He can be reached at [email protected]

For more Columns by Experts click here 

 

"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful."
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