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Value buys - The intrinsic value is close to market price
 The Equity Desk Forum :Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios! :Value buys - The intrinsic value is close to market price
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sajanvm
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Quote sajanvm Replybullet Topic: Tata Tea
    Posted: 15/Nov/2007 at 7:25pm

Tata Tea at current market price of Rs750 :

Market cap: 4500 Cr
Consolidated debt: 4500 Cr
EV : 9000 Cr
Consolidated sales: 4000 Cr.
 
As was widely reported, Tata Tea sold their Glaceu stake to Coca Cola for $1B . This will accrue to the company in Nov and will be a tax free gain.
 
If you see half year consolidated results, interest payments were about 160 Cr. Annualizing this - 320 Cr potential interest payment for the year.
 
From the proceeds of the Glaceu sale, they could potentially pay down most of the debt. Lets assume that 2/3rd of debt is paid off. This will reduce interest payment for the year by around 200 Cr.
 
Since equity is around 6 Cr shares, EPS could jump by a phenomenal Rs 33 !
 
On a EV/Sales basis, Tata Tea is quoting at around 1 time sales. I think its v cheap for a branded play that generated 20% OPM.
 
Your views are welcome.
 
Rgds
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hkumar
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Quote hkumar Replybullet Posted: 15/Nov/2007 at 8:04pm
Originally posted by sajanvm

Tata Tea at current market price of Rs750 :

Market cap: 4500 Cr
Consolidated debt: 4500 Cr
EV : 9000 Cr
Consolidated sales: 4000 Cr.
 
As was widely reported, Tata Tea sold their Glaceu stake to Coca Cola for $1B . This will accrue to the company in Nov and will be a tax free gain.
 
 
Are you saying $1B is the gain ? Or it is the total transaction amount, what is the gain value then?
 
Looks a compelling reason to buy, the promoters stake has also gone up by 7% in last 1 year. The company is performing consistently though the OPM is quite inconsistent (may be due to seasonal nature of business) and the company thrives on extraordinary transactions, almost every quarter.
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sajanvm
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Quote sajanvm Replybullet Posted: 15/Nov/2007 at 8:37pm
$1B is the value of the stake. Profit is $435 million.
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 15/Nov/2007 at 9:28pm
I think that by getting out of plantatins Tata tea has also become a branded player froma  commoditized one. It does look cheap nut unfortunately cheap and deep value plays do not thrive in a bull market that seems to focus on just one thing "growth".It is that biasness of the market which allows investiors to pick up stable companies like this at thse valuations.
 
Over a period of time Tata tea is a stable 15%-20% grower. A cousin of mine attended the AGM and indicated that Ratan Tata said that he has big plans for Tata Tea.
 
 
 
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 15/Nov/2007 at 9:32pm
A slight correction in your calculations. Kindly add the tax impact of the interest savings. there will no be no tax shelter and hence the PAT will actually increase by 2/3 of 200 crores i.e. 133 crores. ( Assuming tax rate @ 33.33 p.c.) . So, the resulting EPS increment on account of interest savings will be 22 rupees.
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sajanvm
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Quote sajanvm Replybullet Posted: 15/Nov/2007 at 10:33pm

Originally posted by basant

I think that by getting out of plantatins Tata tea has also become a branded player froma  commoditized one. It does look cheap nut unfortunately cheap and deep value plays do not thrive in a bull market that seems to focus on just one thing "growth".It is that biasness of the market which allows investiors to pick up stable companies like this at thse valuations.

 
Over a period of time Tata tea is a stable 15%-20% grower. A cousin of mine attended the AGM and indicated that Ratan Tata said that he has big plans for Tata Tea.
 
 
 

Basant - when you say that today'a market is biased towards growth and this allows us to pick businesses such as this at cheap valuations, it does ring a bell.

Was it not the master who said "In the short run, the market is  a voting machine. In the long run it is a weighing machine". 

 
Vivek - thanks for the correction. If I give a conservative 10 multiple to that 'extra' 22 EPS, then we can look at a rs 220 jump...forget re-rating or anything else. That was my logic fo Tata Tea.

 

rgds



Edited by basant - 15/Nov/2007 at 9:28am
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ndzapak
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Quote ndzapak Replybullet Posted: 15/Nov/2007 at 11:33pm
We also discussed Tata Tea here
 
 
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kumarrvq
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Quote kumarrvq Replybullet Posted: 15/Nov/2007 at 11:45pm

Tata tea can be one of the value buy at this level, but when we look at the current bull run, we can clearly see that it is momentum stocks or any company with major capex plan are moving up, this happens when we are in the last leg of any bull run, so why don't we wait for sometime let market go for major correction (when momentum stocks falls, other will also fall) then buy this value stocks.

 
Thanks & Regards,
Harry
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