If one is a serious investor what should one be doing?
The note and tone of caution suggests one should be wary of
a) any specultive holdings
b) leaverage
c) extreme/over valuations (good company bad price)
Furthermore, recheck our assumptions and conviction on our holdings to hold through serious volatility (25% down - we have already gone thru some of these in the last 2 years).
Having said that, if one is a serious investor willing to hold through till 2010 -2012 (3 to 5 years) - in my mind - it has very little impact on what one should do.
If someone is thinking of partial cashing out with the objective of getting back in again cheaper - we know very few people who have succeeded in that venture - with any kind of consistency. markets unfortunately have the habit of rising suddenly - leaving our cash in our hands and valuation higher than we started.
If its money (or some %) we dont want exposed to this voalitility it should be in cash anyway.
If we are in the best companies we have conviction about - which we intend to hold for 3 to 5 years - any action can/could be a mistake.
By the way, I could be wrong so please use your minds to make decisions.
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