Originally posted by vivekkumar_in
Basantji,
You have upped yourselves once again by self-doubting yourselves. Very constructive thing and hard to do for many ppl. Appreciate you for that !
Media seems to be on a consolidation mode for now. As we know the basis why we were interested in Media were
- Ad spend as a % of GDP still low
- Leaders in Media take home everything
- Mandatory CAS will swell the bottom line of the companies
Without Mandatory CAS we still believed TV18 could do a 40-45% EPS growth if I am not wrong . While gestation of some of the new business may affect the EPS for couple quarters. Which is still not too bad.
But the Mandatory CAS is actually the real thing that could convert this from a compounder to a multi-bagger.
From the recent posts that you are not as bullish on Media, may be because you have some strong feeling that mandatory CAS may not come thru as early as 2009 or so.. More because of political uncertainty and stuff etc.. Is that somewhat right ?
|
Thanks. Let me explain my thoughts. While it is true that I have become less bullish on media the point is that it takes a significant chunk of my portfolio even as on date. I have just trimmed down the holdings not exited completely which is normally my strategy whenever I exit a stock or a sector. That is so because I feel that by selling in part an investor is taking two simmulteneous calls Bullish on the part retained and bearish on the part sold!
Or he accepts that he does not know and sells off apart of it. In this case the lack of clarity on mandatory CAS was one of the strongest reasons for the sell.Without mandatory CAS the media stocks will lack the punch that can make a 5 bagger out of them in 3 years.
Surely they are great compounders but when it comes to compounding there is no better stock in India as HDFc bank . A safe steady bet which would fall less in case of a market decline and recover with time not with the market.
So while Tv18 continues to be a great play on the Indian internet and financial space I personally think that the time to temper down the expectations was there.
Also unlike many of you I had close to half of my portfolio in the Raghav bahl companies with a big bias towards Tv18 so I had to take something off the table.
Active Topics
Memberlist
Calendar
Search
Help
Register
Login
IP Logged
