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 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Fundamental
Message Icon Topic: Sentiment Cracking-How to react?? Post Reply Post New Topic
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 15/Sep/2007 at 1:39pm
If sentiments are cracking and if fundamentals are good, then you won't find better opportunity to add on to your holdings.
 
Unfortunately, it looks people assumed that fundamentals are good for the sugar sector. Only time will tell whether market sentiment/concerns regarding Rupee appreciation and software companies are valid or not.
 
if one is unable to get out, he will become a Abhimanyu , brave but dead......thats also suggestive of many a people's career in stock markets.
 
If people talk about me for generations and generations, I would like to be brave (and dead) like Abhimanyu!
 
Harshad Mehta and Ketan Parekh come to my mind.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 15/Sep/2007 at 1:47pm
hahahaha....if i can take the liberty of furthering your observation on TAUs, listen and watch the nautankilal to make the best among the good choices...........we do need a revolution and these people like nautankilal must be given a royal treatment which the people of kolkata know best to do-public lynching.........they will be all cash at the bottom of the market and all stocks at the top of the market...........and to top it all, they will be so confident as if they can chart out the future of the stock by looking at the danda lakeer as if the palmist does by looking at the lines on the palm. TA works well if you are looking very neutrally but the CNBC's analysts are all traders themselves so they get screwed up in all their observation. I beleive the best money is not made by following the trend but by abandoning an overheated trend at the most opportune time, either ways. And thats where gauging sentiment comes in very very handy. For then its all instinct, nothing else. It was really painful for me to abandon Infy at 2037 after having doubled my investment in about a year's time and my dad was really annoyed with me but then I was starting to feel very very uncomfortable with that. I also abandoned larsen at 1700 odd levels ( a part though) and again abandoned at 2356 and will again abandon it for somehow I am not comfortable holding on to it....too much talking going on to give me any sense of comfort.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 15/Sep/2007 at 2:33pm
Smartcat Sir, may I ask you 1 thing.......what will be your advise to a person who has bought a particular stock at say 500 and now if thats 350. Will you just tell him that if fundamentals are good you just go on adding them.....unfortunately, people dont have unlimited funds to invest and hence cherrypicking entry points for averaging are very crucial. And unfortunately again, it takes a little bit longer to discover that the fundamentals you were sitting upon is a damp squib and by the time it generally is too late. Dont get me wrong, but backing up on fundamentals is not as easy.....and unless you are capable of asking yourself very very tough questions, do not back fundamentals too much. The exercise to follow is to discover if the peak was the result of a sentiment or on some fundamental basis and if you can discover very objectively if it was due to a frenzy dont rush to back the fundamental just yet for what runs ahead of the fundamentals a bit too much also falls behind its fundamentals for a much longer while than what the investors in them commonly imagine.
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 15/Sep/2007 at 4:04pm
what will be your advise to a person who has bought a particular stock at say 500 and now if thats 350.
 
My comments to this person would be "Ha Ha Sucker! How does it feel to be left behind holding the dead bird?" But if it was my stock that fell down from 500 to 350, my reaction would be quite different.
 
Generally, I have an idea about how much percentage a particular stock/particular sector should have in my portfolio. For example - if software weightage in my portfolio falls by 15% to 8%, I would add less to other stocks and add more to the software pack, till the weightage is at a comfortable levels (say 10%).
 
For somebody who is earning a monthly income via salary/business, funds are truly unlimited. It will just take time to get the money and invest in the stocks, which is a good thing. Because one doesn't end up buying a big chunk at 350 levels.
 
This is not very different from your strategy of hoping that stock price of your dividend yielding profit generating company does not go up, while you are still buying them.
 
And unfortunately again, it takes a little bit longer to discover that the fundamentals you were sitting upon is a damp squib and by the time it generally is too late.
 
Let me turn it around - what if fundamentals are truly great? In FY09, after the tax/Rupee stuff has settled, what if the software pack starts pumping out 50% CAGR earnings for the next 3 years?
 
This is all about risks and rewards. Since Om is in software field, and since 100% of my income is in USD, let's just say "we have a sixth sense" on how things will be in the future.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 16/Sep/2007 at 12:54pm
Funds are truly unlimited?????? What does it mean??????
 
Smartcat sir, a good yielding stock seldom falls like ninepins during a crash. True, there may be exceptions like Varun but that company has a different issue altogether. But with stocks which dont carry much of a yield, the bottom may be quite inconceivable. Yield mongers provide a bottom as they start pumping in case the stocks fall huge and thereby form a bottom but with stocks which simply rely upon some business model and growth potential etc., in case the sentiment deteriorates no bottom is bottom for them. Sentiment very rarely impacts yielding stocks for those who get into them are absolute ruthless people who understand nothing but dividends. Now when such people enter the stock they are there for long term simply because dividend mongers cant trade daily as dividends are received after a year's period in most of the cases. Capital gains to us is a very accidental income, something which rarely bothers us for even if i sell for a gain chances are I will reinvest a major part back into another high yielding stock of the moment.....so for me the only thing is delta dividend with every transaction..... and somehow by the grace of Lord Almighty, I have very rarely got nervous or had my sentiment cracked because of the stock price's crash.....
 
Coming to fundamentals being good or bad, its all about P/E assignment, and nothing else and P/E assignment is also a very vague thing....no God in this world has said a PEG of 1 is fair and a stock cannot stay above or below a PEG of 1.....most of the companies I am into are growing wonderfully well and will also do well in the coming years but market doesnt take note of it.....AND THIS TO ME IS AN OPPORTUNITY. Also by being opposite of the market I will never get mired in the sentiment stuff, for I am never with the sentiment so even if it cracks, it wont matter to me.....
 
The moot reason why I initiated this discussion was how to tackle the menace of sentiment crack.....the worst symptom of the sentiment crack happens when the 52 week high starts to look the all time high for the future. At that moment how to play the game....by making a very big average so as to bring the acquisition cost down so that you can book out on any intermittent rally or to just make a paw by paw entry....?????
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Mohan
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Quote Mohan Replybullet Posted: 16/Sep/2007 at 11:17pm
Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

Funds are truly unlimited?????? What does it mean??????
 
Smartcat sir, a good yielding stock seldom falls like ninepins during a crash. True, there may be exceptions like Varun but that company has a different issue altogether. But with stocks which dont carry much of a yield, the bottom may be quite inconceivable. Yield mongers provide a bottom as they start pumping in case the stocks fall huge and thereby form a bottom but with stocks which simply rely upon some business model and growth potential etc., in case the sentiment deteriorates no bottom is bottom for them. Sentiment very rarely impacts yielding stocks for those who get into them are absolute ruthless people who understand nothing but dividends. Now when such people enter the stock they are there for long term simply because dividend mongers cant trade daily as dividends are received after a year's period in most of the cases. Capital gains to us is a very accidental income, something which rarely bothers us for even if i sell for a gain chances are I will reinvest a major part back into another high yielding stock of the moment.....so for me the only thing is delta dividend with every transaction..... and somehow by the grace of Lord Almighty, I have very rarely got nervous or had my sentiment cracked because of the stock price's crash.....
 
Coming to fundamentals being good or bad, its all about P/E assignment, and nothing else and P/E assignment is also a very vague thing....no God in this world has said a PEG of 1 is fair and a stock cannot stay above or below a PEG of 1.....most of the companies I am into are growing wonderfully well and will also do well in the coming years but market doesnt take note of it.....AND THIS TO ME IS AN OPPORTUNITY. Also by being opposite of the market I will never get mired in the sentiment stuff, for I am never with the sentiment so even if it cracks, it wont matter to me.....
 
The moot reason why I initiated this discussion was how to tackle the menace of sentiment crack.....the worst symptom of the sentiment crack happens when the 52 week high starts to look the all time high for the future. At that moment how to play the game....by making a very big average so as to bring the acquisition cost down so that you can book out on any intermittent rally or to just make a paw by paw entry....?????


Vivekbhai,
I am guessing his discussion has been initiated by you for academic purposes since you would never face such a situation based on your style of investing ie. dividend yields, as shared by you (points in bold above )  ie. lower the market prices dip, the more juicy the yields on your target stock gets assuming that the fundamentals remaining constant.  Thus it is in your interest for the sentiment to crack. A desirable situation and certainly not a menace . I am not sure if you are providing and answer or asking a question. Hamari es duvidha ko suljahiye.
Thanks








Edited by Mohan - 16/Sep/2007 at 7:22am
Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 16/Sep/2007 at 11:41am
Well, it was in the context of some of my bummies who have got badly trapped in IT stocks now. A friend of mine has accumulated many tickets of Infosys all the way from 2300 to 2000 and is now quite desperate to book out...he is tracking rupee dollar as a housewife tracks the retail price of potato. A relative of mine is similarly trapped in sugar stocks.....so given the way they ask how low can it go, I wanted to start this thread.....its true, for me the only things that matter is dividends and nothing else.
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 16/Sep/2007 at 11:48am

.......he is tracking rupee dollar as a housewife tracks the retail price of potato....

----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Hmm...Big%20smile
 
 
 
 
 

 

Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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