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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Topic: Does Size Really Matter????
    Posted: 02/Sep/2007 at 1:52pm
There is one thing which puzzles me at times.....when we value a company how much is its size as represented by turnover, profits et. important. the question comes to mind when i look at the turnover of some cyclical companies about which we have debated earlier. These companies are making huge tonnes of money and even after covering their capex requirements, have bountiful cash surpluses with them. Thousands of crores in profits? I believe we must pay regard to the absolute numbers as number. What actually this money is doing is enabling them to make more and more acquisitions, repaying borrowings, and in case a company is free from both the counts, the company has huge cash surplus. People may write off free cash flow criteria but we cant forget that we would like our companies to not only to grow but to do that extremely profitably. Cyclicality is a factor with every thing. I was going through Mahindra Gesco's Report......although the report looked attractive but where is the profits. they have executed Chennai SEZ and many residential projec ts but man, where is the profits???? How long shall investors wait????? Faith is alright, but so us a ray to make us believe there's light......on top of it the concerns and risks they have talked about, makes them look as cyclical as the cement or a steel company. They have made private placements, issued warrants and although the company boasts of being debt free but its very easy to make out wherefrom they have come. I was also through MRPL's Annual report and can easily make out this company will easy make profits by leveraging its depreciation. Its making silent moves and will scale up very easily. I will go through SAIL's and tisco's reports thereafter and will post my views thereafter.
 
The reason why I am saying all this is that beyond we see India growing, there's another area which is growing may be at the same speed but most importantly, more profitably. When you grow richer, you get the freedom to allocate capital more efficiently and which in turn furthers your profits in the coming periods. the chain effect may be mind-blowing.....
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ndzapak
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Quote ndzapak Replybullet Posted: 02/Sep/2007 at 8:31pm
Good point Vivek.
 
I think this is what precisely RIL is doing.Using the gargantum cash flow
generated from its commodity businesses of refining and petrochemicals into the new age businesses of telecom, retail and oh! the list is long which are high growth.
 
But as Buffett said how the management allocates capital is its acid test. Till now RIL has been doing fine by shifting its cash towards high growth and high RoE businesses. Advantage of RIL is its teremendous execution skills, quick decision making( speed ).
 
Question is how many business groups in India can do it as well as RIL?
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ramki830
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Quote ramki830 Replybullet Posted: 03/Sep/2007 at 8:32pm
Vivek,
 
I think there is another side to the story as well. When a business/corporate entity is too huge, and cash flows are massive, the management/promoters tend to diversify excessively and develop "excessive ambitions and bloated ego" and this kind of caps the growth...
 
I am finding early signs of this in RIL - they are no doubt a monster in terms of free cash flow and profits, but they are planning expansion  in too many unrelated areas. Size, infact is a disadvantage.  In the biological world, the largest mammal - elephant takes 20 months to deliver a kid elephant while  a rat can breed many kid rats so fast...
 
Big Size - Stability with Slow growth.
Small Size - Risk with Rapid growth.
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 03/Sep/2007 at 5:30am
If RIL was listed & operated in USA, Investor would have thrashed the management for unrelated diversification. Long ago BAT opposed diversification of ITC but failed due to govt. Institutions.
Will we except Infosys foraying into energy sector ? Do we like Wipro buying FMCG companies ? A big NO.
A prudent investor never wants diversification. They want buyback & dividends. Diversification is an excuse of selecting principal business.
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 03/Sep/2007 at 9:38am
Although, I do agree big size may be a disadvantage in some cases, however I was talking about something different. RIL is getting into something unrelated, i do agree. However, some companies will become huge without any effort. take for instance ITC....if a company generates 3500 crores of cash flow and is sitting on plum cash and handsome MF investments and has no debt, can you work out the strength of this company. I was talking more for affordability to lose. Now, ITC can take on its competitors because of its financial might....we all know FMCG was a wrong venture for ITC but then who bothers.....even though the company may lose here and there there's a big cash cow to support that.....its like kar lo duniya mutthi mein style. So long as the company is totally debt free, it doesnt matter what they do. They have also developed a progressive dividend policy at the rate of 10 p.c. I have admiration for companies which generate tonnes of cash rather than those companies which only talk of promises with little delivery like suzlon. I have never bothered for business models and stuff like that and i never dream with my stocks ....i beleive in numbers and will like my compnies to throw bundles as corporate profits and dividends....doesnt matter if its a cyclical or a non-cyclical, doesnt matter if they are into a service like GE shipping or into commodities or into FMCG, all i want is big fat numbers......no begging, no borrowing and no stealing permitted however!!!!!!!
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Quote prosperity Replybullet Posted: 03/Sep/2007 at 10:00am

Yes Vivek, Size Matters .....

I personally think of companies who have huge cash on their portfolio as "companies having deep pockets"    

These companies can go through a rough period easily as compared to its competitors   
 
These companies can come up with policies because of which - its first generation competitors cannot survive
 
Basantji has highlighted the advantages of first generation companies ... since they don't have huge cash - they go out to market to fund their most profitable ventures ....
 
This is exactly opposite of it ... If your company has huge cash inflows (like Hindustan Zinc) ... It can be positive viscous circle ... a chain effect which can be mind boggling ... ONLY if the company knows how to deploy its cash properly !!!
 
Hindustan Zinc pays more tax than its expenditure .... Ponder over it ... 33 percent is the tax but expenditure is less than that !!
 
Thats HUGEEEE  PROFITS .... HUGEEE  CASH FLOW .....
 
And you know where it deployed it ? .....  Partly expanded its own capacities ... and In order to reduce the production cost further invested into building captive power generation (wind power energy)
 
This not only would
1) reduce their cost of making Zinc, and not only
2) they can sell extra power (agreement to nearby areas for selling power at decent rates is already done) but also .....
3) Its incurring expenditure by this investment and hence PROFITS ARE ARTIFICIALLY coming down (or made to look like that) ..... and hence TAXES ARE SAVED ...
 
Mind Boggling ....
 
Where on Earth you find companies who pay more taxes than expenditure ? That is the sign of being ultra cash rich ... and look how beautifully they are investing their proceeds ...
 
That is what i call positive spiral or positive viscous circle or how to benefit immensely from your DEEP POCKETS !!
  


Edited by prosperity - 03/Sep/2007 at 10:03am
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 03/Sep/2007 at 10:17am
exactly...i am plying a similar game in seshasayee papers, thirumalai chemicals , century enka and cheviot. Porritts and spencer asia also fits this bill along with GE Shipping......
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 04/Sep/2007 at 12:45pm
Wow, now that's a nice rosy picture allright.
 
Companies like Ford/GM used to generate net profits of $4 to $5 billion just 3 years back. And no, they didn't unnecessarily diversify into making spaceships either. But now, just look at their balance sheet. They are now making losses of $2 billion each.
 
When giants trip, they fall really hard. And cause lots of collateral damage too (Delphi is almost bankrupt).
 
Lots of things can go wrong with ITC (ban on ciggies), Tata Steel (higher supply pushing down prices affect Corus profitability), Hind Zinc (low demand) etc - and make them reel in massive losses. Of course, these things are unlikely to happen in the near future, but one needs to keep this in mind.
 
Companies like ITC/RIL are trying to avoid just this, by diverisification. If US investors thrash a stock for diversification, then either the investors are stupid or the company management has terrible project execution skills.
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