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 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Fundamental
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prosperity
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Quote prosperity Replybullet Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 5:23pm
Thanks for those details Vivekji ... You seem to have lots of experience in dealing with delisting offers from promoters !!
 
BASANT-JI,
 
you have posted on the topic but have not answered my questions... I am feeling more assured that i have annoyed you deeply ... If not, please answer my first post on this topic ...
  
Basantji, I have learnt a lot from you and TED ... so much so that i was on verge of forgetting "my own style of investing"
 
On your insight of never buy a cyclical for long term, i sold out my entire ONGC and bought TV18 which grew more than 3 times...  i was also wanting to do that ... but your thoughts gave me the final kick .. or chingari .. to do that ...
 
But i was also contemplating to sell my Tisco holdings over past year ... good that i did NOT sell it ... because TISCO is very different from ONGC ... eventhough both are commodites ... and Hindustan Zinc has been superb !
 
Now i am consciously controlling your influence on me ... because i was on the verge of forgetting my investing style ...
 
- I am thankful to you and TED that i sold out ONGC and invested in TV18
- I am thankful to myself that i prevented myself selling out TISCO, which i was contemplating so many times, because i started thinking that yes, commodities are not for long term...
    
Strong words came, because above was a very strong revelation of what was happening with my emotion deep within me, which i was unaware for almost a year !!
      
I guess i have summed up myself on this ... Hope you forgive me for my strong words ...


Edited by prosperity - 01/Sep/2007 at 5:29pm
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 7:12pm
Well, I dont think a team will ever grow if members dont fight or question each other. But, the purpose must be for the team , of the team, by the team. You have to develop a sense that either the team wins or the team loses....no individuality over there. Basant sir is not to be thanked for TV-18......too petty a thing. If tomorrow he goes wrong in something, will you rise up against him or what........stocks are too petty a thing over bonding. In my opinion he has been a teacher par excellence. Just yesterday, I was having a discussion with my mentor cum employer cum guardian, and my dad just said that in stocks you just work out how much downside it has for when a thing will go up, no one knows.....I admire my dad's humility just as I do with basant sir. We must respect that markets may make them wrong anytime....they are no Gods, but they have an inspirtional value but at the end of the day we will like to be called by our names but will always liked to reminded that what we become is very hugely owed to our mentors. In markets, I may get into a stock which they wont like and yet outsmart them, but that shouldnt be used to belittle them. I generally never say good things about TED or basant sir, for I am of the strong opinion, what you think and feel for a person is always known by that person, and if you dont speak it the better he knows that......for me, its either we pass or we fail...I pass and you fail or i fail and you pass is not a scenario. I will never buy a dish or a nucleus but for people who have conviction, I will try to put my charting studies so that they may average properly. You have said something for ONGC.....trust you me, there are very very few stocks which carry as much value as does ONGC but am I wrong in backing this stock and its price has not moved......sure, I may be labelled a loser but I dont care, for deep down i have so much deep faith on this that I CANT BE LOSER IN THIS. So, brother prosperity, never worry for such incidents for at least you have been brave enough to question and Basant sir will never be wrong to you...believe you me, if there's anyone who has been a thorn in basant sir's discussion, it is vivek Sukhani and it is because I know this, i can say that dont have such illusions like he is angry or unforgiving.....
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 7:33pm
Thank you Vivek for sending my point across.
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 8:01pm
On a personal note Prosperity jee, your words were very sincere and I liked them a lot.
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 8:33pm
I wonder what kind of returns can be made by blindly buying shares of a company that intends to delist. What has been the average offer price over the current market price? 20% atleast? And then, there is a further upside when the management ups the offer price.
 
Isn't Bosch trying to delist MICO? Any other delisting candidates?
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 02/Sep/2007 at 9:26am

It may not be relevant here.....Not sure if this helps answer SmartCat's query...

 

Open season

 

Should investors press the sell button when open offers come at a premium to prevailing share prices? A ready reckoner.

 

According to Sebi data, there were 132 open offers in 2005, 105 open offers in 2006 and 67 offers so far this calendar year. In many cases, the acquiring companies have paid or are paying hefty premiums for buying out target companies.

 

In such a situation the million-rupee question for the shareholder of these companies is whether they should sell out to the acquiring company or hold on to their stake.

 

Analysts advise short-term investors to exit the target company. However, long-term and patient investors may stay invested depending on the fundamentals of the business.

 

When it comes to taking a decision of whether to hold or sell out, investors should consider factors like target company’s competitive position, growth prospects, industry outlook, premium offered, valuations, the acquirer entity and management control of the target company.

 

If the acquirer has a substantial stake in the target company after open offer, there is a possibility of de-listing of the shares in the future.

 

Says Agarwal, “Most MNCs look at open offers to delist from the bourses and to do away with the various regulatory norms.” For example, companies like Philips and Cadbury have been delisted.

 

If the promoters are planning to delist the company, there is no reason to be in the stock.

 

Also, investors have to remember that when they tender shares in open offer, the tax liability is higher than what it would be were they to sell on the stock market.

 

Source: BS

 

 

WHAT THEY OFFERED?

 

Company

Acquirer

Open offer
price (Rs)

Closing
price# (Rs)

CMP*
(Rs)

CY2005

02-Feb

United Breweries

Scottish & Newcastle

57.50

42.28

294.45

22-Mar

ACC

Holcim

370.00

356.60

1065.90

31-Mar

Crisil

Standard & Poor's

680.00

678.80

3675.00

05-Apr

Glaxo Pharma

Glaxo, UK

800.00

730.15

1169.60

07-May

Adlabs

Reliance Capital

183.00

257.40

471.77

16-May

Shriram Transport

ChrysCapital

35.00

58.65

168.05

19-May

Ambuja Cem Eastern

Holcim

70.00

69.50

113.35

CY2006

02-Jan

Thomas Cook

Dubai Financial

61.95

58.70

63.40

02-Feb

Gujarat Ambuja

Holcim

90.64

85.15

133.45

16-Feb

Shriram Transport

Newbridge

112.75

111.30

168.05

25-Jul

Mysore Cements

Heidelberg Cement

72.50

49.80

50.80

30-Aug

Matrix Labs

Mylan Laboratories

306.00

275.00

239.58

10-Nov

IL&FS Investsmart

E*Trade

210.00

195.20

190.32

CY2007

05-Mar

MICO

Robert Bosch

4600.00

3841.50

4096.00

05-Mar

Sesa Goa

Vedanta Resources

2036.00

1749.35

1944.00

07-Mar

Lanxess ABS

Ineos group

201.00

189.65

194.55

21-Mar

Geojit Financial

BNP Paribas

27.50

35.00

42.02

06-Jun

Deccan Aviation

Kingfisher Airlines

155.00

135.15

140.47

27-Jun

Esab India

Esab Holdings

426.00

449.75

495.63

28-Jun

Chettinad Cement

Promoters

450.00

455.35

441.75

21-Aug

Gokaldas Exports

Blackstone Group

275.00

252.10

254.03

27-Aug

Ambuja Cements

Holcim

154.00

133.20

133.45

Note: The list includes open offers of well-known companies
* As on Friday, August 31, # As on the date of announcement of open offer
CY: Calendar Year

 

Source: BS

 

 

Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 02/Sep/2007 at 10:34am
Absolutely relevant. But before we make a blanket conclusion that stocks rise post the open offers (which they normally do) we should see that the time line in the above thesis is within a full blown bull market so to that extent the monry would have grown had the investor taken his money and put it in some other stock.
 
 
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prosperity
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Quote prosperity Replybullet Posted: 03/Sep/2007 at 12:25pm
Small Note: Most/All of these are NOT delisting candidates - otherwise how do we know their market price if they really are delisted after the open offer ...
 
I believe these are open offers different than delisting offers !
 
In that sense, i guess - Kulmanji was trying to say that this might be irrelevant to this topic of delisting ....
 
But still a good article ..
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