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Identifying Multibaggers
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 15/Nov/2007 at 10:58am
Actually, I made a similar post about Chinese telecom companies sometime back. But after that, I did a little more research. China Mobile is trading at a market cap of $350 billion yes - but the No.2 player is at just about $50 billion.
 
The Indian market is much more fragmented with No. 1/2/3 players almost neck to neck (23%, 18%, 16% respectively). So Bharti alone might not touch $300 billion market cap, but Bharti/RCom/Vodafone put together might reach those numbers evenutally.
 
Bharti or a RCom might reach a market cap of $120 billion each (in about 3 - 4  years) before it does an INFY (PE de-rating). I know I'm not holding a lemon, but I'm willing to hold RelCom till the last drop of juice has been squeezed out of it.
 
1 in 5 Indians will use Bharti (I am not counting fixed lines or broadband) eventually where as 1/100 will use Axis
 
Those who are really bullish on Axis see this as a positive. Imagine what would happen to its market cap if 2 out of every 100 Indians start using Axis!
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luke123
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Quote luke123 Replybullet Posted: 15/Nov/2007 at 11:40am
One addtional trigger for Bharti is their demerger of Tower Business in this or next quarter. should add a few billion to the market cap but don't know how much.
I haven't followed this sector too much but too me the growth story is still intact. Airtel seems the best of the lot.

http://www.bhartiairtel.in/fileadmin/srijan/Results_Record/Qrtrly-results-0708/Quarterly_report_Q2FY08.pdf
   is the link to Airtel's quarterly updates. Haven't seen anything like this anywhere. Teaches you what to look for in results in a telecom company.


This is Sunil Mittal's comment on policy issues affecting company:


Now, to your final point on influence and policy that is one crown that we have never sought and have never claimed and that we have ever been in line to win that crown. I think there are other people who can do it better. This company has grown despite a lot of policy hits that we have received in the last several years and in as far as your position that we have been saying that we will not be impacted by TRAI’s recommendation is incorrect. TRAI’s recommendations have only come in now and this quarter we have not spoken about it earlier. We have gone on record immediately after the announcement of TRAI that the calculation is erroneous, they are wrong. They do not take into account the central business district and they have also taken loading of the network, which are completely unrealistic. That position remains. We are aware that the government is keenly looking at the submissions that we have made and you are also aware that we have gone to TDSAT on many matters, amongst them also the TRAI recommendation in this regard, so I think it will be best to say that we await the outcome of this whole process, but we have not and will not be in the corridors of power to influence policy.

Airtel and TV18 are the only two stocks that I had identified and not invested and regret it everyday.
I remember Sunil Mittal saying that we wanted to create a company with innate goodness of TATAs and agressiveness of Reliance. If you have delt with them, you feel they actually have done it.

Luke


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shontou
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Quote shontou Replybullet Posted: 14/Sep/2011 at 9:44pm
Axis Bank::Takeaways Motilal Oswal Annual Global Investor Conferences

Key Takeaways
Loan growth guidance of 1.3-1.4x industry average
 The management expressed concerns over a slowdown in investments and hence
sanctioning of new projects. However, expects strong demand for working capital
requirement and past sanctions will lead to systemic credit growth of 18% in FY12.
 Based on the current pipeline the management is confident of growing its loan book
at 1.3-1.4x industry average.
Margins at normalized level, management expects no more moderation
 In past 2 quarters margins declined 60bp to 3.3% (due to higher share of PSL in
incremental loans and rising cost of funds), and has come to a normalized level (in
line with management guidance of 3.25%-3.5%).
 While seasonally, margins for AXSB come under pressure in the first and fourth
quarters due to a strategy of building the priority sector book, the second and third
quarters are generally strong as low-yielding loans run off.
 With CASA ratio of ~40% and improving loan yields, management guided for
stable/improved margins henceforth and targets margins of 3.25-3.5% in FY12.
Power sector exposure optically higher
 AXSB's overall exposure to the power sector was 9.8% (of corporate exposure) of
which fund-based was ~5.5%. The balance sheet exposure was ~3.5% of overall
loans and a large part of the non-fund based exposure was keeping in mind syndication
opportunities, LC and BG-related fee income.
 In most of the projects AXSB is a consortium banker with NBFCs like PFC, REC and
IDFC who cannot issue LC and BG. Thus a large part of the exposure comes in its
non-fund based exposure. Once it becomes fund-based it syndicates the loan.
Typically, of this converted non-funded to funded exposure, 15% remains on the
book and it syndicates the rest.
Other highlights
 Fee income growth to largely track balance sheet growth.
 Bank targets to maintain CASA ratio of 38-40%.
 Slippages trend has been encouraging with slippage ratio declining from 1.4% in
FY11 (2.2% in FY10) to 0.8% in 1QFY12, and management expects trend to continue.
Every day, self-proclaimed stock market "experts" tell us why the market just went up or down, as if they really knew. So where were they yesterday?
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 29/Sep/2011 at 2:36am
Axis bank to provide lifetime fixed interest loan for house buys. This surely will help home buyers. Also, I don't really get it...Shouldn't all forms of teaser loans be barred just summarily?? Why these ifs and buts......Somehow the fact that no one has learned any lesson from the meltdown in US is very irritating...
 
Link
 
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Kabootar
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Quote Kabootar Replybullet Posted: 29/Sep/2011 at 3:34am
All the banks are betting there will be no more interest rate hikes for a long time. So any body who takes this particular loan runs the significant risk of paying higher than normal interest costs ..this will not pinch now but maybe in 3-4 years. Effectively the bank is assuring the loan taker that their loan interest will stay fixed at the highest interest rates in a decade. How kind of them :D
Verbal diarrhoea! A most deadly disease.
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shontou
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Quote shontou Replybullet Posted: 24/Oct/2011 at 5:23pm
Conference Call      
          Axis Bank
Credit cost to be contained at around 75 bps for FY12


Axis Bank came out with the financial results for the quarter ended September 11 and conducted conference call on 22 October 11 to discuss financial performance and the prospects of Bank. Somnath Sengupta – Executive Director and CFO addressed the call.

Highlights of the call are:
Business grew 6% q-o-q and 25% y-o-y to Rs 334544 crore for the quarter ended September 11. Assets grew 7.5% q-o-q and 25% y-o-y to Rs 250611 crore in quarter under review.
Advances grew 6.2% q-o-q and 27% y-o-y to Rs 140089 crore at end of September 11. Large and Mid corporate advances grew 27% to Rs 140089 crore, SME 25% to Rs 79390 crore, Retail 40% to Rs 29328 crore and Agri and Micro finance credit by 17% to Rs 10616 crore in the quarter under review.
Major portion of retail book (76%) constitutes housing loans followed by 13% Auto loans, 4% personal loans etc. Most of the portion of retail book is secured.
The top five industry wise exposure remained similar to that in sequential quarter, top being financial companies at 10.58%, power generation and distribution 9.23%, Infrastructure 9.23%, Engineering & electronics 6.53% and Metals and metal products 6.24%. The management expects credit growth to happen from working capital loans in corporate banking and planned disbursements from infrastructure sector.
Deposits grew 24% y-o-y and 6% q-o-q to Rs 194455 crore in quarter ended September 11. Daily average balances of savings deposits grew 20% to Rs 42675 crore and that of current account deposits at 19% on y-o-y basis. Demand deposits constituted 38% of aggregate daily average deposits in quarter under review against 39.06% in the corresponding previous quarter. Term deposits grew 22% to Rs 112315 crore and constituted 58% of the total deposits at end of September 11.
CASA deposits accounted 42.24% of total deposits against 40.5% at end of June 11 and 41.5% at end of September 10.
NIM improved to 3.78% in quarter ended September 11 against 3.28% in quarter ended June 11 and 3.68% in quarter ended September 11. Management expects NIM to be around 325-350 bps at end of FY12.
Cost of funds inched up from 4.75% at end of September 10 to 6.13% at end of June 11 and 6.19% at end of September 11.
Fee income inched up 32% to Rs 1121 crore in quarter under review. Fee income from large and mid corporate credit grew 27%, retail 39%, treasury and debt capital markets by 48% and Agri and SME banking 33% on y-o-y basis. The Bank has reported sharp fall in trading profits at Rs 28 crore in quarter under review against Rs 108 crore in the corresponding previous year.
Capital adequacy ratio stood at 11.35% with Tier I capital 8.48% for the quarter ended September 11 against 13.68% with tier I capital of 9.77% at end of September 10 and 12.53% with Tier I capital of 9.33% at end of June 11. Including H1FY12 profits CRAR stood at 12.20% with Tier I capital of 9.33% at end of September 11.
Investment book improved 13% on q-o-q and 37% y-o-y to Rs 85016 crore at end of September 11. G Sec constituted Rs 53971 crore while Rs 31045 crore were in other securities such as corporate bonds, equities, preference shares and Mutual funds. 81.61% of Gsec Book is in HTM category while 97.97% of bonds and debentures portfolio have been classified in AFS category. On the other hand, HTM book constitutes 57.14% of the book with duration 5.31 years; AFS shares 35.38% with 3.14 years and HFT 7.48% with 3.10 years.
Asset Quality of the book has slipped in the quarter ended September 11. Gross NPA has inched up 28% y-o-y and 11% q-o-q to Rs 1743.80 crore in quarter ended September 11. The bank has witnessed slippages to the tune of Rs 496 crore while the recovery and up gradation and write offs were to the tune of Rs 163 crore and Rs 162 crore respectively. Net NPA has inched up 34% y-o-y and 19% q-o-q to Rs 548.77 crore at end of September 11. The management expects credit cost to be around 75 bps and slippages to the tune of 1% for FY12.
The provisions and contingencies marginally inched up 7% to Rs 405.58 crore in the quarter ended September 11. The breakup of provisions is as follows: Standard Assets Rs 47 crore, NPA and Bad debts Rs 247 crore, Restructured assets Rs 33 crore, Depreciation on investment Rs 80 crore.
%GNPA stood at 1.08% against 1.12% a year ago and 1.06% a quarter ago. %NNPA stood flat on y-o-y basis at 0.34% against 0.31% a quarter ago. Provision coverage ratio stood at 77.69% while PRC before accumulated write offs was at 89.29% at end of September 11.
The Bank has restructured loans aggregating to Rs 312 crore during the quarter while Rs 20 crore of restructured assets turned to NPA's in the quarter. Cumulative value of assets restructured till end of September 11 stood at Rs 2410 (1.49% of gross customer assets). Nearly 72% of the loans restructured up to Q2FY11 were more than a year old.
The bank has added 35 branches and 723 ATMs during the quarter, taking the total to 1446 branches and 7984 ATMs at end of September 11.
Book value per share has increased to Rs 509.05 at end of September 11 against Rs 462.77 at end of March 11 and Rs 432.50 at end of September 10.
ROE stood at 18.67% while ROA stood at 1.52% at end of September 11 against 17.58% and 1.50% respectively in the corresponding previous year.


Edited by shontou - 24/Oct/2011 at 5:23pm
Every day, self-proclaimed stock market "experts" tell us why the market just went up or down, as if they really knew. So where were they yesterday?
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