Active TopicsActive Topics  Display List of Forum MembersMemberlist  CalendarCalendar  Search The ForumSearch  HelpHelp
  RegisterRegister  LoginLogin

Indian Economy - Powering Ahead!
 The Equity Desk Forum :Economy, Markets and commodities :Indian Economy - Powering Ahead!
Message Icon Topic: How to hedge against war Post Reply Post New Topic
Author Message
Monkey
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 21/Aug/2009
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 770
Quote Monkey Replybullet Topic: How to hedge against war
    Posted: 20/May/2011 at 8:36am
 
A war is low probability, high impact event, something we do not prepare ourselves for. However, it is not somethig which we can rule out. Last major war India fought was 40 years back in 1971. This does not mean that there will not be another one in next 40 years, especially since situation in Pakistan becoming highly unpredictable.
 
A major war means flight of capital from country, very high inflation and big devaluation of rupee. Conventional portfolios with allocations in equities and debt do not provide hedge against war.
 
Anyone living in big city is dependent on efficiency of supply chain management, basically on "just in time" deliveries for lots of day to day items. This will certainly get disrupted especially with petroleum products directed towards war front. Also, there will be power cuts due to shortage of fuel. Hence, life in big cities would be really tough during war. Best way to escape these troubles is to have agriculture land in rural area with ground water source where one can grow food and relax with relatively less problems.
 
War will also result in many fortunes made and lost. Almost all conventional portfolio will get hit. Hence, one needs to have something alternative to come out in better shape. Here also, it is much better to own physical Gold and foreign currencies which are considered safe heaven. Towrds the end of war, almost all conventional assets like stocks & property will be available very cheap and interest rates on FD would be quite high. One can use potful of Gold and FD in swiss franc (just for example) to buy these assets.
 
Few more things very useful to own are cigarettes and beer. See, these things will also face shortages and will have great demand. If you own cigarettes and beer, you can offer the same in exchange of services. It surely makes life easier.
 
IP IP Logged
Gurdial
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 29/Apr/2010
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 147
Quote Gurdial Replybullet Posted: 20/May/2011 at 9:30am
I don`t think India will be involved in any major war in the future. As both our potential enemies are nuclear powers,hence stakes would be just too high to engage in a full scale war- read MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction). This was clearly demonstrated during Kargil (when India even under extreme provocation did not open new fronts rather preferred to keep it localised)and then again in 2001,when after parliament attack our govt mobalised the army but after sitting on borders for 8 months doing nothing, called them back.

However, if ever an unknown event does happens- gold, diamonds and maybe dollar/ Euro etc would be great to hold. But can/should we hedge for an event like that.
To be a successful business owner and investor, you have to be emotionally neutral to winning and losing. Winning and losing are just part of the game.
IP IP Logged
Vamsee
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: 09/Dec/2007
Location: United States
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 149
Quote Vamsee Replybullet Posted: 01/Jul/2011 at 4:32am
This is really an important topic and we need to give some thought.
With pakistan on the verge of collapse, there is a very realistic chance of this happening.
What if there is a black swan event like rogue nuke attack by terrorists on a city in India.
Or a full blown nuclear war with around 50 nukes exchanged?
Quite frankly very few are going to be prepared for those scenarios.
Stock market would definitely tank and FII's would run away and it would be the least of the concerns for any govt.
Growth would take a big hit and survival becomes paramount.

May you live in interesting times
               -- Ancient Chinese Curse
IP IP Logged
pramodjain
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 29/Mar/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 300
Quote pramodjain Replybullet Posted: 02/Jul/2011 at 11:13pm
we must have have certain allocation of gold in your portfolio
"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful."
IP IP Logged
Monkey
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 21/Aug/2009
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 770
Quote Monkey Replybullet Posted: 02/Jul/2011 at 12:35pm
 
War is very low probability event. I think there is no need to think about it in normal course of day to day life. However, just in case things come to such a state, we need to be aware & taking appropriate actions to protect ourselves, including our financial life. The discussion, at this stage, is merely hypothetical and I hope it remains that way forever.
 
 
 
IP IP Logged
Post Reply Post New Topic
Printable version Printable version

Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot create polls in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum



This page was generated in 0.031 seconds.
Bookmark this Page