Buyback would have closed long back now you need to hold it. Write an email to the company and to SUnil Mittal (seriously) and check whether they would take it now.

I think this topics needs to discussed in more details. Besides financials and number of subscribers we need to closely watch out the technological disruptions this field is going to witness.

Excuse me for my limited telecom knowledge. But still I will try to put across points which are important and relevant.

First question needs to be answered is what is impact of CDMA. To start with Reliance was able to provide features like R-world with CDMA technology. But to move to provide 3G services(which will be future value add services) which is cheaper CDMA or GSM.

World over GSM larger base has forced equipment manufacturers to spend more on research and product development for GSM.

How spectrum issues play?

How are new services like IPTV and VoIP going to have an ipact?

In case reliance wants to migrate its user base to GSM there will be a considerable cost.

But I have a feeling that despite of some challenges Reliance will be a formidable player. I guess Tatas will be loosers either way.

I am just a little worried about investing long term (>5 years) in the telecom sector. In the growth phase that we are in, there might be money to be made, but am not sure of what will happen later.

If you look at US, you will see what a cut throat business telecom is... Consumers benefit, not the telcos. One of the big factors that I think has protected telco companies in India is the absence of LNP (Local Number Portability - meaning, i can switch to any carrier but my number remains the same). If we did have LNP in India, none of us would care if we were with Bharti or Reliance or whoever as long as I can retain my number.

Bharti Airtel  has moved about 20% since we discussed this stock some days back. The net monthly additions of mobile telephone subscribers have crossed China's net additions. In August India added 5.8 million subscribers while China added 5.5 million.

 

By 2010 total market size for mobile telephony should be between 350 million – 400 million from the present level of 120 million.

 

It is learnt that Bharti is looking for some international acquisitions. Market grapevine has it that because of international players like Vodafone and Singapore Telecom, Bharti shall make this acquisition in a country where these players do not have significant presence.

 

It is rumored that the company is looking for companies in the lesser developed countries of Africa or South America

 

The company is aggressively increasing focus on the fixed line/broadband services where ARPU is almost triple of the mobile services. Mobile revenues make up 75% of total revenues,  but the real growth is coming from other sections of the

 

While 3G is a few quarters away the IPTV plans of the company are in the pipeline and should further boast revenues.

 

With Reliance communication on its heels the competition is intensifying but the monthly net additions are still ahead of forecasts. That means that the market is growing much ahead of expectations.

 

The fact that Reliance communication is now looking at GSM is a confirmation on the superiority of this business model. The company is attempting to increase its market share to 25% from the present 21% over the next few years.

Edited by basant - 30/Sep/2006 at 11:52am