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 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Fundamental
Message Icon Topic: Which Stock to Buy? A Quantitative Analysis Post Reply Post New Topic
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 18/May/2011 at 3:54pm
I would be more happy with a stock that has compounded earnings 20-25 per cent annually for the past ten years and which has been ignored by investors.


I would want dividend per share to grow at a similar pace too - else, the earnings growth could be fake.

So what this appreciation tells us? Would you rate that stock price growth as positive or negative in your previous analysis?


I would look at it positively. To me, it means that particular company has not been ignored by the investor community. This is especially important when looking at small companies (market cap of less than Rs. 100 cr). So basically, if that company has decent future earnings growth, you can expect the stock price to go up too.

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amol.karale
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Quote amol.karale Replybullet Posted: 05/Sep/2011 at 2:44am
Originally posted by kailasp4u

Micro Technologies figures:
Sales9M-11  / 2010-03 / 2009-03 / 2008-03 / 2007-03  /  2006-03
560.81 459.18 289.93 188.10 106.36 58.67
Net Profits
98.29 89.35 71.91 54.37 32.09 16.99
Except in last 9m, growth has been good.
But could be issues with corporate governance and equity dilution are keeping stock low.
Equity capital in last 6 years is as follows:
13.92, 12.82, 10.98, 10.95, 10.5, 10.07
This alongwith corp govt issues could be factors. Or is there anything below carpet? Anyone?


If it is corp govt issue then what exactly it is? I am very desperate to know why Micro tech is trading at such a cheap valuation even after posting a very good sales & profit figures in last 5 years. Here is the snapshot of FY11.
Micro Technology -->
Current Mak Cap = 161 Cr,
Total Assets (629 Cr) = Networth (421 Cr) + Long term debt (207 Cr)
Sales = 599 Cr, Net Profit = 77 Cr (On consolidated basis)
Revenues & profit has grown consistently in last 4-5 years.
No huge amount of inventory.....
+ve Operating cash flow....
Paying dividend consistently....
ROE has been around 11% to 20% in last 4 years.
The outstanding numbers of FCCB as of 31st Mar 2011 are 120 ($12 mn)
The number of outstanding shares increased from 1.28 cr to 1.39 cr. in FY11...
Company allotted 5,52,000 equity shares to promoters and again 1,00,000  shares were allotted upon conversion of warrants allotted at price of 138 (CMP = 115) --IS this matter of concern? The amount of

Everything looks good with this company so really confuse why the stock is trading at such a cheap valuation?
Please help me to find out what is wrong with this company & why the market is ignoring this stock?
 

Amol
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 06/Sep/2011 at 12:41pm
There is a big difference between consistently paying dividends and consistently paying ENOUGH dividends. The only way small caps IT companies can gain marketcap is by paying out 30 or 40% of their profits as dividends. Eg: eClerx. Higher dividend payouts will attract dividend yield mutual funds & individual investors towards such stocks.

There are basically two reasons why markets don't trust the numbers put out by small cap IT companies - because the markets don't trust the promoters. Markets worry about -

- Promoters putting up cooked & deep fried profit numbers
- Alternately, if the profits are real, markets worry about promoters siphoning off the money from the company with their ingenious methods.

Basically, the only way companies like Micro Technologies can get re-rated is when the management decides to pay higher dividends. Till then, holding on to such a stock is a risky proposition (both in terms of possible capital loss or not enough capital gain).
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Quote MR TED Replybullet Posted: 06/Sep/2011 at 1:01pm
Originally posted by smartcat

There is a big difference between consistently paying dividends and consistently paying ENOUGH dividends. The only way small caps IT companies can gain marketcap is by paying out 30 or 40% of their profits as dividends. Eg: eClerx. Higher dividend payouts will attract dividend yield mutual funds & individual investors towards such stocks.

There are basically two reasons why markets don't trust the numbers put out by small cap IT companies - because the markets don't trust the promoters. Markets worry about -

- Promoters putting up cooked & deep fried profit numbers
- Alternately, if the profits are real, markets worry about promoters siphoning off the money from the company with their ingenious methods.

Basically, the only way companies like Micro Technologies can get re-rated is when the management decides to pay higher dividends. Till then, holding on to such a stock is a risky proposition (both in terms of possible capital loss or not enough capital gain).
 
Agree to what you say, but just curious that why you limit your above rule to small cap IT only..why only IT sector and not say Consumer?
 
 
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 06/Sep/2011 at 1:52pm
There are many consumer/FMCG stocks like DFM Foods, ADF Foods, Amar remedies, Agro Tech Foods etc that are trading at decent P/Es inspite of not-so-great dividend payouts.

That's possibly because investors can "see" the products made by these companies in supermarket shelves, and that gives them enough confidence to buy the company behind the maker of those products. There is also a general perception that consumer stocks are safer than small cap IT stocks.
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Quote MR TED Replybullet Posted: 06/Sep/2011 at 2:20pm
Originally posted by smartcat

There are many consumer/FMCG stocks like DFM Foods, ADF Foods, Amar remedies, Agro Tech Foods etc that are trading at decent P/Es inspite of not-so-great dividend payouts.

That's possibly because investors can "see" the products made by these companies in supermarket shelves, and that gives them enough confidence to buy the company behind the maker of those products.
 
so true..Thanks!
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Quote SimpleInv Replybullet Posted: 06/Sep/2011 at 3:09pm
Originally posted by smartcat

There are many consumer/FMCG stocks like DFM Foods, ADF Foods, Amar remedies, Agro Tech Foods etc that are trading at decent P/Es inspite of not-so-great dividend payouts.

That's possibly because investors can "see" the products made by these companies in supermarket shelves, and that gives them enough confidence to buy the company behind the maker of those products. There is also a general perception that consumer stocks are safer than small cap IT stocks.


Can't agree more. I have a painful experience of investing in FCS software, edelweiss score for this stock is 10(Maximum). sales are all decent enough, question is how can you trust the balance sheet, and trust level reflects in the share price behavior for last few yrs.
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Quote neeraj_kumar Replybullet Posted: 31/Jan/2012 at 5:57pm
Hi,

I am new to trading. I have opened my DMAT account recently but no idea how to invest. Please suggest me some trading software for intraday specially.
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