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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 12/Jan/2007 at 9:56am
BubbleVision......
 
I beg to differ slightly from the view you expressed: Character of a man is only tested when he is down. This may be true in some few cases or in markets.
 
Practically, with whatever little experience I have, we can see character of guys (neo-rich types) is put to real test while they are on top.
 
And when one is down, these guys resort to so-called "religion", blind faith etc etc...
 
 


Edited by kulman - 12/Jan/2007 at 9:59am
Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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BubbleVision
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 12/Jan/2007 at 10:00am
Yes Kulman... That is also true...
 
Wind blows the hardest at the top of the tree where the leaves are the newest and the most fragile.
 
 
I think Happy Life itself is a test of Character.


Edited by BubbleVision - 12/Jan/2007 at 10:04am
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 13/Jan/2007 at 12:08pm
I read this long time back in Times of India I think, by a renowned author/philosopher:
 
"True Character of a man is revealed when he is in power, not in poverty."
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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Mohan
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Quote Mohan Replybullet Posted: 10/Feb/2007 at 12:48pm
Amazing clarity of thought and purposefull discipline.
My compliments to you Basant Ji.
 
 
 
Originally posted by basant

 
continued from:
 
Thank you Vivek
 
I think that you have not been able to understand my strategy so let me repeat my investing strategy for you:

 

A) I never hold any large caps. In fact I sold out Bharti once it hit Rs 120 (Market cap Rs 20,000 crores) after getting in at Rs 25 (Market cap Rs 4000 crores) because it was approaching a market cap I was not comfortable with. That eliminates all the established blue chip from my portfolio. I am constantly in search for emerging blue chips and not the established ones. That is why I invest in small/midcap companies. I believe that you can get the next Infosys in a small cap only.

 

B) I hold at most between 3 and 5 companies in my portfolio. Yes only 3 to 5. Once I finish analyzing a company I ask myself one question “Is the company good enough to take 20% of my portfolio. When ever I get an answer as yes the next question is OK what can I replace it with. If I get another yes I would buy that stock. I prefer putting all my money into one company but just for the event risk I have divided it into 3 to 5.

 
Since I hold concentrated portfolios 3 to 5 companies I forecast a best case scenario with only the target price of 2 to 4 companies assuming that one will go bust and get me a zero value in the defined time span. If still the overall result looks exciting I would invest taking the mathematical premise that errors will cancel out each other (I do not know which one will under deliver and by how much).Robert Hagstorm the author of a book on Warren Buffet did a study where he found that concentarted portfolios give out better returns
 
I have lost many 30% to 100% returns by missing on opportunities because those companies did not fit my style of investing. But I have no regret because the ones I hold have more or less made up for that.
 

It takes me hardly one hour to analyze a company but making up my mind (the second part of B above) takes a few days or a even a few weeks at times. This is so because I believe in concentration.

 

C) This is how I like to zero down on a company.

1)      I look at the management first. The management is the most important and lest talked about aspect of a company.

2)      I like to know what business the company is into and then look at whether it is scalable. I prefer new sectors since the growth is highest there. I avoid cyclical because I cannot predict the peaks and troughs.

3)      I then look at the market cap. If it is below Rs 1000 crores I think we could pay a higher PE to that company

4)      I would then look at the RoE to see if the company is using its capital efficiently. RoCE is a better concept though because you could hike the RoE by using debt but not the RoCE

5)      I would then compare the PE with the growth and the RoE. If there is a big difference between RoE and growth then the company does not merit investments. This is so because for a company to grow at higher rates of growth compared to its RoE it would have to dilute capital. That hurts

6)      Dividend, book value is something that I look but do not base any of my decisions upon. I think that they tell you what the company has done and not what it will do.

 

D) Once a stock is bought and the price falls without any change in fundamentals and if I have the required cash I will buy at each fall.

 

Now I do not stop at step 1 of phase C above. I do look at steps 2,3,4 and 5 of phase C above but there is a difference in priority. That is all. For instance I like Financial technology. MCX could be HUGE but I am worried by valuations so each time I want to buy the stock I think in terms of phase B above and give it a pass.

 

 So it is just a matter of prioritizing the tools of analysis. No analysis is complete without putting all tools at work. In none of my reports will you find the valuation parameter missing because irrespective of the strategy you use the final objective is to make the stock price a slave of its earning. The question is which one are you more comfortable using when compared to the others i.e. prioritizing the tools.

 
And finally, I have made my 30 baggers this way so I have become used to investing in this fashion.

 

 

Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 20/Feb/2007 at 9:39pm
Charles B. Carlson, author of "Eight Steps to Seven Figures" (New York: Doubleday, 2000), reports that “The majority of millionaires surveyed hold stocks for at least five years. Many hold for ten years or more.” (He interviewed more than 200 such people.)
I think this is the best place to quote this.
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 20/Feb/2007 at 10:34am
That was a wonderful information!!!
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 11:08am
Originally posted by CHINKI

Thank You very much Basanthji. Few more questions:

While considering investment in any particular company, other than management's integrity and their ability to perform under different conditions, EPS and ROE, is there any other parameters you look at?

Since there is lot of potential available in this sector, is there any other company which is listed which we can think of for investing??
 
I think those parameters are adequate. The most important thing is subjective analysis (not in this order though):
1) Will the company exist after 5 years. Exist means it should not be closed down.
2) Earnings visibility - If EPS keeps growing year after year the stock will become cheaper year after year.
3) Business - SOme businesses like power, fertilizers do not favour super normal return. Others like oil and steel have too much external and unpredictable influence 
4) This is more of a portfolio check which I do. If I have 4 ideas in my portfolio all potential multibaggers I just check up to see if after 4 years the increase in price of one of them should be equal to my total capital as on today. I assume no returns from the other three - which if it happens is a super bonus. 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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catchsudipto
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Quote catchsudipto Replybullet Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 11:16am
Dear Sir,
his is more of a portfolio check which I do. If I have 4 ideas in my portfolio all potential multibaggers I just check up to see if after 4 years the increase in price of one of them should be equal to my total capital as on today. I assume no returns from the other three - which if it happens is a super bonus.

WOW what a  great one to chose stocks.



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